General May Weather

Weather reports, prognostics, questions and discussion. Climate diagnostics, drivers, and outlooks. Weather stations and websites.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A bit of cloud overnight but nothing much clearing away in the morning to be a fine day with some high cloud.
Light northerly. 15.5C for today here.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Looks like some warm temperatures in some areas to round out May and into next week- highs pushing into the high teens and may even be low 20's with a NW flow for us here in Canterbury
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Re: General May Weather

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Some gale force winds at times too. Will be a real tester for the trees with such soggy ground at the moment.
Tomorrow afternoon/evening and again Monday, much stronger for higher areas as usual.
There's not that much snow on the mountains currently, but we also have to factor in if there is cold upper air with the NW.
Which this time won't affect surface temperatures.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes milder weather alright as we approach the first month of winter.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A fine day with light winds. From 2.2C it climbed up to 19C here.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Orion »

Scarlet sky pre-sunrise at the moment.
11.8°C
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by darcyplumb »

Orion wrote: Fri 26/05/2023 07:37 Scarlet sky pre-sunrise at the moment.
11.8°C
It’s incredible 😍
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Classicford »

Veiw from my property in Waimate this morning.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by JP. »

I don't understand why this happens so often on the Metservice website..? How can you have a forecast that states "High cloud breaking up in the evening. Northerlies" yet no mention of the 9.8mm of rain that are shown below that forecast. Also symbols showing sunshine with light clouds.


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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Nev »

JP. wrote: Fri 26/05/2023 13:53 I don't understand why this happens so often on the Metservice website..? How can you have a forecast that states "High cloud breaking up in the evening. Northerlies" yet no mention of the 9.8mm of rain that are shown below that forecast. Also symbols showing sunshine with light clouds.

MS get this quite a lot. They always say that you should go by their written forecast if it differs from their computer generated hourly forecasts.
See proviso by clicking on 'Keys' at the bottom right of the 'Hourly Observations and Forecast'...
The hourly model data shown can differ from the written forecast and icons, which are produced by MetService meteorologists and take into account model data along with many other data sources. If they differ significantly, please use the text forecasts.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Razor »

Nev wrote: Fri 26/05/2023 15:15

MS get this quite a lot. They always say that you should go by their written forecast if it differs from their computer generated hourly forecasts.
See proviso by clicking on 'Keys' at the bottom right of the 'Hourly Observations and Forecast'...
The hourly model data shown can differ from the written forecast and icons, which are produced by MetService meteorologists and take into account model data along with many other data sources. If they differ significantly, please use the text forecasts.
I understand it was the cause of considerable angst in the most recent Auckland flooding event when it came through early but the forecast continued to show the main event was still expected some hours ahead. Something for review for sure
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Storm Struck »

The other thing I don't personally like with the forecasts is the percentage chance of rain. Often work colleagues have said to me that it stated there was only a 10% chance of rain when it absolutely teemed down.
Yet that percentage of rain could be due to falling for only an hour, and also due to rain in isolation like in thunderstorms.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by JP. »

Nev wrote: Fri 26/05/2023 15:15 MS get this quite a lot. They always say that you should go by their written forecast if it differs from their computer generated hourly forecasts.
Ahhhh good to know. I cycle a lot and there is nothing I hate more than leaving home for a 3-4 hour ride and getting poured upon.

Thanks for the tip
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Noticed that the Rakaia radar is down at the moment. Just had an overthrow shower move across.
Lots of lightning out west and in the Tassy Sea at the moment.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Classicford »

Saw lightning earlier this evening over the back of the Hunter Hills. Nor' Wester has picked up here now in Waimate. Strongest its been all day.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Karliosis »

Saw a couple of flashes to the west over the ranges as I was cycling home this evening ~10.30pm
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

A generally cloudy day with NW winds breezy at times. Mild though with today's maximum being 18.5C.
Overthrow showers moving across from 4:30pm from the west and throughout the evening with sheet lightning flashes out to the west along the Alps.
4mm for today.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Late night here.
Lightning constantlyflashing away to the west.
Radar shows severe thunderstorms way south of Hokitika. no STW for that area?
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Looks like incoming moisture will help bring some thunderstorm risk to the upper North Island through to Tuesday, see what can develop next few days. Dew point temperatures will be moist at 14-16C.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Around 1:15am this morning there was a bit of a downburst with a clap of thunder and a flash within the cloud and a bit of a shower resulting in a 0.6mm of rain for today. Lightning flashing away to the west from then but dwindled out as the system moved further north.
...anyway, it was a fine day here across the region with not wind, if so from the SW. Lots of high cloud and clear sunny areas.
Today's maximum was 17.8C.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Nev »

NE winds already starting to ramp up here. Could be a wild night here as this front moves down from Northland later today...
MetService Thunderstorm Outlook

An active front is expected to move slowly southwards over Northland this afternoon and evening, reaching northern Auckland tonight. A second active front is forecast to move onto Northland tonight. These fronts will bring periods of heavy rain.

There is a low risk of thunderstorms for Northland north of Whangarei this morning, increasing to moderate from afternoon, with this risk spreading southwards to include the remainder of Northland and northern Auckland this evening and tonight. These thunderstorms may produce localised rainfall rates of 10 to 25 mm/h and possibly more, strong wind gusts of 90 km/h, and a chance of a small tornado.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere in New Zealand during this period.

MetService Tstorm Outlook for May 28.png
Issued: 7:52am Sun, 28 May
Valid to midnight Sun, 28 May

MetService Tstorm Outlook for May 29 am .png
Issued: 9:56am Sun, 28 May
Valid from midnight Sun, 28 May to noon Mon, 29 May
Edit: Updated to include tomorrow morning's map.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by Storm Struck »

A very active week of weather ahead for most of Aotearoa. Has been the theme of 2023 so far right :crazy: .
Continued warm temperatures in the east around 19 to 21C as we enter towards the start of Hotoke ( winter ).
Some strong winds tomorrow although Thursday brings in some decent gales to the region.
Friday is showing a brief cold flick with thunderstorms possible and lowering snow levels. However by Kings birthday there is a particularly cold snap with very low level snow possible.
One to watch.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by David »

An unexpectedly nice day here, plenty of sun, just a bit breezy. Even managed to get near 20C.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Another day of high cloud and a NW Arch this afternoon and not much wind.
13.7C the maximum for today.
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Re: General May Weather

Unread post by spwill »

15mm here and easing conditions. Afternoon convergence may produce a heavy shower here.
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