Cyclone Lola possible impacts on NZ - Oct 29-31

[Nev]

Thought it might be worth starting a thread on any possible impacts Lola may have on NZ starting from about this weekend. Still early days and models have been chopping and changing quite a bit, but hopefully we'll have more of a consensus in the next few days.

Here's a some possible 24 hr rainfall senarios from EC, GFS and ACCESS for around next Monday/Tuesday...

[Nev]

The remnants of Ex-TC Lola will merge with another low in the Tasman on Saturday, dragging moisture from both across the Tasman and down from the tropics down over the North Island from Sunday.

MS have already begun issuing Orange Heavy Rain Warnings and Strong Wind Warnings for Northland, the Coromandel, Auckland and Great Barrier Island for Sunday arvo through to Monday morn. More warnings/watches will probably follow for the BoP and the East Cape area.

MetService Severe Weather Outlook image - Is. Oct 27.png

[David]

King tides this weekend too. Expecting the local east-facing beaches will take a battering

[spwill]

Looking at thunderstorm risk next few days, Tuesday looks the day for thunderstorm development over the North Island with the day heating/convergence. A low thunderstorm risk for the upper North Island on Monday, particularly over Northland but plenty of heavy showers around.

We have the very cool southern ocean air over the upper North Island today, it will be replaced by sub tropical air tomorrow.

[David]

Went up to the local windy spot (Musick Point) with the handheld anemometer around 5pm, recorded a mean speed of about 54km/h with a peak gust of 87km/h.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Earlier reports said that Lola would not effect NZ but it looks like a change of events happening with another round of rain for districts affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the ones that caused the Auckland Anniversary Floods.

[Nev]

Earlier reports said that Lola would not effect NZ but it looks like a change of events happening with another round of rain for districts affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and the ones that caused the Auckland Anniversary Floods.

Assume you're referring to this regrettable comment by MS in Stuff last Monday, "Tropical cyclone Lola, named by the Nadi tropical cyclone centre, is not expected to come anywhere near New Zealand, MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker said on Monday".
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/weathe ... r-landfall

MS were, however, saying the complete opposite a day or two later. Strictly speaking, this new deepening low just to north of Cape Reinga is a merger of the remnants of Ex-TC Lola and another low pressure system from the Tasman, which is pretty much what EC and GFS have been predicting for at least the last week or so.

[Nev]

I see Kerikeri's had over 110mm so far since yesterday. MS also had gusts to 117 km/h at Whangaparaoa yesterday, although I noticed places like Cape Reinga and the Colville Channel were up to at least 140 km/h yesterday.

11mm here so far, along with pretty strong easterlies .

[Twister sista]

Having some mean gusts now in Te aroha, the house is shaking good old kaimai buster

[spwill]

Left over moisture will help generate thunderstorms over the eastern North Island High Country on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

[David]

Dewpoint touched 19.6C locally during a brief sunny spell. My previous record high dewpoint for October was 19.3