Sth Pac & Aus Tropical Cyclone Season 2023-24

[Nev]

This system appears to have been stifled since yesterday afternoon as it interacts with an upper trough, which is inhibiting development. Convection is now also struggling to consolidate around its somewhat elongated low level circulation centre (LLCC). Max winds remain at 35 knots in the southern quadrants, but It now seems likely that she may not even be named today.

[Nev]

BoM's latest track map suggest that this system may not be named until tomorrow morning. Although they have estimated max winds of 40 knots, those gales are only estimated in southern quadrants, explaining why the system is yet to be named as a TC. Landfall is still expected near Townsville on Thursday night as a Cat 2 TC.

[Nev]

TC Kirrily has just been named by the BoM this evening.
Currently about 630 km ENE of Townsville and 530 km NE of Mackay.

[Nev]

TC Kirrily's centre now about 420 km NE of Townsville and 405 km NNE of Mackay. Deep convection continues to improve, albeit confined mostly to Kirrily's western flank. Max winds still around 40 knots with a central pressure of 990 hPa, but expected to intensify to Cat 2 later today before making landfall somewhere near Townsville tonight.

[Nev]

TC Kirrily upgraded to Cat 2 earlier this afternoon, with 50 knot max winds and 990 hPa central pressure.
Centre currently about 250 km NE of Townsville and 300 km north of Mackay.

[Nev]

Severe TC Kirrily has just been upgraded to Cat 3 by the BoM, with max winds of 65 knots (120 km/h) and gusts to 90 knots (165 km/h).
Centre currently about 150 km ENE of Townsville.

[Nev]

Ex-TC Kirrily was downgraded to Cat 2 as it made landfall between Townsville and Ingham just after 10pm local time (1am NZDT) last night.

[Nev]

TC Nat, well east of the dateline, was named by Fiji Met this morning.

[Nev]

TC Nat was upgraded to Cat 2 by Fiji Met this morning as it heads towards Tahiti...

[Nev]

JTWC has also issued a TC Formation Alert for a tropical low north of the Samoan Islands this morning.

And there's another tropical low NW of New Caledonia in the Coral Sea which could become a TC by late tomorrow or on Friday.

[Nev]

TC Nat was downgraded back to Cat 1 early yesterday afternoon.

Meanwhile, TC Osai, a little further WNW, was named by Fiji Met earlier this morning.

[Nev]

Nat was declared an Ex-TC by Fiji Met earlier this morning.

Meanwhile, JTWC have issued their first TC Advisory for the low in the Coral Sea this afternoon...

[Nev]

Osai was declared an Ex-TC by Fiji Met on Thursday afternoon - just 15 hours after being named.

Meanwhile our Coral Sea tropical low's centre passed near Vanuatu's capital of Port Vila this afternoon. This low has been struggling to consolidate over the last few days with persistent WNW shear, dry air intrusion and land interaction.

[Nev]

Our Coal Sea low never did get named by Fiji Met, who issued their final advisory this morning, as did JTWC last night.

[Nev]

Another tropical low brewing about 500 km NE of Niue has a high chance of becoming a TC in the next 24 hrs as it approaches the southern Cook Islands.

[Nev]

JTWC have issued a TC Advisory this morning for the low approaching the southern Cook Islands. Fiji Met also still expect to name it today.

[Nev]

Our tropical low currently to the ESE of Rarotonga now looks unlikely to be named by Fiji Met...

[Nev]

TC Paul in the NE Coral Sea was named by the BoM this morning (1800z), upgraded to Cat 2 by around midday (0000z) and may reach Cat 3 later today or tonight before weakening tomorrow. Late yesterday the BoM only gave Paul a 15% chance of developing into a TC this week.

[Nev]

Former TC Paul weakened overnight and was downgraded to Cat 1 this morning (1800z), then declared an Ex-TC around midday today (0000z).