General May Weather

[spwill]

The first week of May looks cool-cold for New Zealand. May 2023 was the warmest May on record for NZ, this is not going to be repeated.

[Bradley]

NZ Herald Reporter Jamie Morton made a bold prediction about the coming winter for New Zealand this morning - “Over the next few weeks at least, forecasters are telling me it will be a bit colder than average over New Zealand. So that’s the result of basically the last gasp of El Nino.

“As we move into winter proper though it’s hard to tell"

[harleyb]

NZ Herald Reporter Jamie Morton made a bold prediction about the coming winter for New Zealand this morning - “Over the next few weeks at least, forecasters are telling me it will be a bit colder than average over New Zealand. So that’s the result of basically the last gasp of El Nino.

“As we move into winter proper though it’s hard to tell"

Really pushing the boat out with that one!
It reminds me of this little insight from NIWA in the news regarding the recent rain event on the West Coast: "If river flooding were to occur, it's most likely where river flows become extremely high."

[Razor]

Decent rain for us Cantabs today, refreshing to see but we'll need followup if its to mean anything

[Storm Struck]

Hoping for the same we get a decent 20mm. First main front went through this morning with rain much earlier than I was anticipating.
Only 2.0mm so far has eased the past few hours, but will begin to increase this afternoon more so.
Should be a good dusting for the mountains too.

[Richard]

Decent rain for us Cantabs today, refreshing to see but we'll need followup if its to mean anything

Nothing here yet, will there be anything I wonder

[Richard]

A heavy rain watch out for my area is ok for those of us on the flat land, not so for hill properties with hard dry soils.

Nice steady rain atm

[BeaconHill]

Surprising amount of rain here in Wellington this evening. All of the models through the day had a small amount of rain, then a heavier burst in the early hours of Thursday. But in the 6 hours from 3pm. Wind swung to light southerly just after 5 and there was a small convergence line right over the southern suburbs.

IMG_2706.jpeg

Will be interesting to see what eventuates overnight, as MetService has an 11hour heavy rain watch from 8pm. 930pm and rain radar is looking impressive around central NZ, but currently a break in the rain here.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Clouded up overnight with it coming onto rain from dawn. Not much wind but a bit of a southerly did spring up this afternoon.
Grey skies all day with 10.5mm of rain for today, easing this evening. 11.5C for today.

[Richard]

The rain watch overnight came to little with 11.4mm

[tornado]

bit of a thunderstorm drought in auckland at the moment. have not heard any thunder since 29 december last year. hopefully later in may may produce some chances?

[Razor]

The rain watch overnight came to little with 11.4mm

Yes no more than 10mm for most, up to 20mm in some lucky areas like the out back of Taitapu. The prolonged dry set to continue here for the next couple of weeks, at least

[Richard]

Reports of only 2mm from near Waipara. To the east of me near the Hurunui pub a farmer told me he had 18mm, only 2km from here.

[Richard]

These pine tree over the road from me are showing signs of die back thanks to the on going dry.

2ndMa.JPG

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Cloud cleared away overnight to become a fine and sunny day. Calm or not much wind.14.5C for today.

[Simon Culling]

This tweet from MetService gives some decent rainfall totals for the Wellington area for the 24 hours to 8am on Tuesday morning (2nd May) including 81mm at Kelburn. It states this was "its 3rd wettest May Day", so am I correct in assuming they mean 'May Day' rather than for all days in May?

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 7532314944

[spwill]

Monday has a Winter look for the deep south, the front crossing the area is weak but cold.
May can be an interesting month for thunderstorms over northern/western parts of NZ but need this cool high pressure to move on.

[Richard]

This tweet from MetService gives some decent rainfall totals for the Wellington area for the 24 hours to 8am on Tuesday morning (2nd May) including 81mm at Kelburn. It states this was "its 3rd wettest May Day", so am I correct in assuming they mean 'May Day' rather than for all days in May?

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 7532314944

They worded it as May day and not May Day, so that would surly mean the whole month.

[Simon Culling]

Thanks, Richard. The lack of a second capital letter, if deliberate by MetService, would support your interpretation.

[Nev]

This tweet from MetService gives some decent rainfall totals for the Wellington area for the 24 hours to 8am on Tuesday morning (2nd May) including 81mm at Kelburn. It states this was "its 3rd wettest May Day", so am I correct in assuming they mean 'May Day' rather than for all days in May?

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 7532314944

Kelburn's only other wetter 24 hour days in May based on 9am reset are 105.5mm on 20 May 1981 and 83.4mm on 29 May 1974 from records since 1928.

[Razor]

This tweet from MetService gives some decent rainfall totals for the Wellington area for the 24 hours to 8am on Tuesday morning (2nd May) including 81mm at Kelburn. It states this was "its 3rd wettest May Day", so am I correct in assuming they mean 'May Day' rather than for all days in May?

https://twitter.com/MetService/status/1 ... 7532314944

Great for them thats more than we've had in the last 3 months!

[Storm Struck]

The rain watch overnight came to little with 11.4mm

Yes no more than 10mm for most, up to 20mm in some lucky areas like the out back of Taitapu. The prolonged dry set to continue here for the next couple of weeks, at least

The plains and coast are set up for several SW shots into the next week, although not delivering much in terms of moisture.
It will be small top ups anyway which is better than nothing.
I'm picking that May and most of June will be generally fairly simular, and will see this continued colder overnight lows too.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Heard on the wireless, that NIWA says it's going to be warmer than usual this winter but Tony at Blue Skies says it's going to be cooler than usual.
Who do you believe? I'm going for Tony's prediction.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Another fine day with light winds. 15.6C for today. Clouding up later this afternoon but clare skies tonight.

[spwill]

Heard on the wireless, that NIWA says it's going to be warmer than usual this winter but Tony at Blue Skies says it's going to be cooler than usual.
Who do you believe? I'm going for Tony's prediction.

Short term is certainly colder. Niwa warmer is for the next 3 months as a whole.

The temperature has not gone below 8C at Auckland airport or Greylynn so far this year, should happen next week.