I'm Sticking My Neck Out, Here

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I'm Sticking My Neck Out, Here

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Just to start off a fresh new thread, I think there may be a good chance for thunderstorms for Canterbury on Tuesday judging by current indications. AAron, be on alert!!!


JohnGaul
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Unread post by Thunder »

You know I am!. Although you'll have to do the recording duties as I have no video camera!

Might I add people that I have availability to sell video cameras. I can't afford one yet myself but my father has an account with a place here in Chch called Dove Electronics. I got talking to a guy there and he said he will let me be able to sell them. There's quite a range in the sony arena and also some Canon type video cameras. I'll only ever do it as a side thing if anybody wants one, trust me there's hardly any profit in it unless I sold one of the really big bugger type video cameras like I talked about not long ago (it's the way the electronics industry is, computers aswell). I'll only ever do it as I side thing, so if anybody out there wants one let me know and I might be able to help out and get it a bit cheaper than in the shops. They have a one year manufactures warranty that will most definately work in NZ and full support is offered by the manufacturers telephone help line. I can also get digital camereras!

It's the salesman in me. Crazy stuff!! hehe.

Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Looking at the Met Service prognosis chart for Tuesday, I see what you mean John. Such an isobaric set-up would encourage a surface NE ahead of the SW change. The only negative for storm development though would be the current cold rain/snow event in Canterbury. It will be really cooling the environment down and would'nt recover by Tuesday.
Hence the convective potential will be stymied. My thoughts.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

My bet on the forecast is dependent on the timing of the front.
I thought the cooling would have some relevance, hense to the strength of the sun at the moment!

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Unread post by TonyT »

I'm picking the wind change wont arrive till Tues night, which reduces the TS potential a lot. I didnt consider TSs even a possibility when doing the forecasts this evening. But you never know... :)
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Unread post by tich »

I'll stick my neck out even further and suggest there could be a very cold southerly outbreak over all of NZ next weekend. I've been looking at the UNISYS forecast models.
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Unread post by Dean. »

Gee Id say Tich,looking at the AVN models and also Tonys long range forecast.
528 thicknesess over the top of the South Island for Sunday.
Looks like I have picked the right weekend to go to Queenstown on holiday.Maybe not much skiing though,ahh well. :) .
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Unread post by NZstorm »

I'm picking Friday as the next likely day for Thunderstorms over the North Island.
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Unread post by Thunder »

Went to bed a while ago but was listening to the radio for the sferical sounds (static from lightning) and to my surprise I'm hearing a few really nice clear ones (1:30pm?), you know the ones that go schhhschhhschhhhhh!!! Where are they coming from?, they are about 1 to 2 minutes apart though. I look outside and see a clear dark sky apart from the odd little bit of cloud, perhaps they are from the West coast, can they come across that clearly though from way over there? Anyway, shall I stay up or go to bed, think I'll go to bed!

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Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by NZstorm »

At night you can pick up static from storms hundreds of km away.
The static from storms inside 50km tends to be sharper and louder.
There are cold airmass storms out in the Tasman sea. These have also developed along the West Coast of the South Island. However given the relatively dry air I don't think they would be overly lightning active. ;)
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Rain has finally arrived in Auckland and looks like some showers tomorrow maybe a clap of thunder with some hail in the morning.
This current trough is relatively dry hence boring.

Upper air over the South Island is turning quite cold but likely not to be the thermal lfit to produce a thunderstorm over Canterbury. Should still some some hail though overnight or in the morning.

Interesting weather will come at the end of the week provided the low gets a good dose of moisture from the north.
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Unread post by Michael »

[quote="NZstorm"]Rain has finally arrived in Auckland and looks like some showers tomorrow maybe a clap of thunder with some hail in the morning.
This current trough is relatively dry hence boring.

Has the rain actually stopped for more than a 2 hour period??

Its not dry here-hasnt been all day ;)
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Yes, well my prediction was a bit of a 'fizzer', although it did look quite thunder potential this morning, ie. some castellatus forms in the upper atmosphere but as you say Stephen, a bit dry up there.
It's also the timing of the front and the placing of lows that can bring thunder potential to Canterbury. I think the low off Fiordland at noon to day sort of stuffed things up and the noon weather map had a warm front moving over.
... but any way the earthquake this morning at 6.22pm, sort of got the adrenalin going ..... :)
No damage here but I was surprised that there was no evidence of the 'quake, eg. Lights not swinging.


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Unread post by Thunder »

A fizzer! We haven't had the southerly yet! It's been NE all day here and has now totally calmed, due to it getting darker and cooling down (11C at Jeff Northcotts weather station, 7:20pm) I guess that wouldn't help if a southerly did come through. I think there could be some rain later tonight (early next morning) with the potential for hail, but with this being a low pressure system anything could happen!

I've tried, hehe. Will anything happen? Bahh! I don't know.

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Unread post by tich »

The high cloud thickened near Akaroa on a few occasions today, but none of the brief rain predicted by MetService fell. Skies were clear for a time this afternoon. It was quite mild too - even though there's still a good coating of snow above about 500 metres.

For Saturday, Met Service is now going for snow to fairly low levels in the south (of the South Island), a change from the 500 metres forecast earlier.
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Unread post by Dean. »

The latest AVN model for the cold snap forecast this weekend shows the coldest air moving offshore in a west southwest flow.
Looks like Tony has adjusted his longrange forecast accordingly.
Mild day today,temp 17 degrees.
Cheers.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

I think some interesting weather will go through Canterbury Saturday.
The NZTS should be prepared. Have that camera ready Aaron. :)

And I think their will be some wintry precip in the hills to about 300m for a time.
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Unread post by Michael »

Very wintry in Auckland tonight and wet like July weather :(
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

[quote="NZstorm"]I think some interesting weather will go through Canterbury Saturday.
The NZTS should be prepared. Have that camera ready Aaron. :)

Just been looking at the models, you could be right Steven, especially with the oncoming anticyclone development in the Tasman Sea this WE.
As I say, it depends on the timing and what disturbance the southern oceans can throw upon us here. Any thing could be on the cards, even another tornado ... don't get excited Aaron!!!

With the borometer very low like what it is at the moment, anything can happen!!

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Unread post by Thunder »

Will try to stay calm John....

As for something happing tonight, well mayby something will, but the cool temp wont help. I'm picking up the odd scferic, very sparse.

Image

10:42pm sat pic from Graham W's site.

Nice looking stuff moving onto the North Island. There looks to be some stuff round Canterbury but its just north of Chch and offshore going down the coastline, can anyone tell me if there is any Cb's amoungst that cloud on the east coast of the South Island by looking at that sat pic?

Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson

P.S Will post 12:00am radar if looking good.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Some classic wintry cumulonimbus around Auckland this morning.
Temperature currently 9C with a squally shower. I heard a distant rumble earlier this morning.
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Unread post by tich »

MetService may have predicted just a few showers for Canterbury today, but the reality so far this morning (both on Banks Peninsula and Chch) is persistent rain, often intense and driving. The 9AM radar shows a concentration of red over and to the southwest of Chch.
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Unread post by tich »

Well the rain eased to showers in Chch late in the morning, and it gradually cleared up this afternoon. MetService 'upgraded' its forecast for the region to 'brief coastal rain' - it certainly wasn't brief this morning and I don't know about coastal, as the skies still looked overcast and damp inland as I was coming into the city from the peninsula.
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Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I'M STICKING MY NECK OUT, AGAIN.

The ECMWF for the next couple of days looks good for Canty.
Of course this is depending on timing and 'rodents'


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Battern Down the Hatches

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Looks like the North Island should get a battering tomorrow with some severe weather in parts of the country. You usually get this with a low moving across the country that is followed by an 'old man southerly' and then an oncoming anticyclone.

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