Big Easterly Low: 24th-28th

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 25/01/2006 20:17

The ECWMF did a great job at predicting the outcome of this last subtropical low

Lastest run now has another low in the New Caledonia area next week.

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Wed 25/01/2006 21:43

Next to no rain this evening, just lots of sticky heat. No sign of thunderstorms at this point.

Hopefully the weather will now be kind for the Outlaws Racing over Thurs/Fri/Sat night

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 25/01/2006 22:09

Foggy Hamilton wrote:BOOM thunder has arrived in the great city!

What else is new

JohnGaul
NZTS

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Wed 25/01/2006 22:53

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Foggy Hamilton wrote:BOOM thunder has arrived in the great city!

What else is new

JohnGaul
NZTS

45mm today from convective heavy showers which became very loud and thundery..

The NZWP sounding had a strong cap at the tropopause height of 11km with some critical inversions.. CAPE today was around 430j/kg and LI down to -3. Not much wind aloft meant they could develop strongly too

Convection by all means isn't over.. with more outbreaks of thunderstorms developing the over next few days.

Floodwatch in store for Eastland tomorrow

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Wed 25/01/2006 23:20

A few thunder claps here ( to the North ) around 7pm... Nothing much...

Manukau heads obs · Thu 26/01/2006 05:44

wow foggy!
thats alot of rain
i could see it on the rain radar
there was a wind change to the NW then SW behind that shower line, up here...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 26/01/2006 07:45

Raglan area got 70mm from that afternoon storm yesterday, Te Awamutu got 58mm.

Looks like weather shud fine up quickly today, currently 8/8 low stratus in AK.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 26/01/2006 08:23

[/quote]Raglan area got 70mm from that afternoon storm yesterday, Te Awamutu got 58mm.[/quote]

Shower clouds were slow moving yesterday, I noticed that big Cb over west Waikato seemed to hang around there for several hours , no wonder Raglan got a lot of rain.

Heavy showers over AK yesterday afternoon were small so brief.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 26/01/2006 08:57

When the southerly change went through Picton yesterday afternoon there was a period of 20 minutes of hard driving rain, with a couple of claps of thunder. A little later, when conditions had settled back to just the odd shower, I was on the ferry in the sounds, and saw a small disturbance on the water (elsewhere in the area there was a fresh wind and small waves). It was no more than a couple of metres high and a few metres wide. It didn't appear to be rotating. It raced over the water surface, roughly with wind direction, and lasted about 20 seconds. Can vaguely recall seeing one of these before.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Thu 26/01/2006 10:08

missed out on the action yesterday still very humid

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 26/01/2006 17:34

Foggy Hamilton wrote:
The NZWP sounding had a strong cap at the tropopause height of 11km with some critical inversions.. CAPE today was around 430j/kg and LI down to -3. Not much wind aloft meant they could develop strongly too

I don't look at that rubbish, i just look at the sky/weather predictions,scenarios and work it out from there

JohnGaul
NZTS

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 27/01/2006 00:45

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
Foggy Hamilton wrote:
The NZWP sounding had a strong cap at the tropopause height of 11km with some critical inversions.. CAPE today was around 430j/kg and LI down to -3. Not much wind aloft meant they could develop strongly too

I don't look at that rubbish, i just look at the sky/weather predictions,scenarios and work it out from there

JohnGaul
NZTS

It's a bit different up here John..

You quote "weather predictions" or forecasts which is actually based on data from soundings which can give precipitable water, shear, helicity, total totals indicies, lifted index etc. Oh wait, that's all rubbish.