Rain on the way
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
- Posts: 18489
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
just go to The Warhouse, it cost me 7 bucks
Where's the Warhouse? Fort Worth in the USA ?
Might I add I just edited to include "Go the AB's!"
What's the AB's I thought an AB was a class of steam locomotive that ploughed the railways tracks of NZ from 1923 to the withdrawl of steam locomotion in 1970!
Good postings Aaron, looks like you have been doing your homework.
Could be thundery off the Northland coast judging by the noon sattelite pic. Light rain falling here now with a cool easterly.
JohnGaul
NZTS
Where's the Warhouse? Fort Worth in the USA ?
Might I add I just edited to include "Go the AB's!"
What's the AB's I thought an AB was a class of steam locomotive that ploughed the railways tracks of NZ from 1923 to the withdrawl of steam locomotion in 1970!
Good postings Aaron, looks like you have been doing your homework.
Could be thundery off the Northland coast judging by the noon sattelite pic. Light rain falling here now with a cool easterly.
JohnGaul
NZTS
-
- Posts: 2068
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 19:47
- Location: Mt Somers
- Has thanked: 19 times
- Been thanked: 41 times
heheheh! Funny John
"Warehouse" that's better!
"AB's" = All Blacks!
Yes I'm taking it to the next level! Hopefully this will help in forecasting the thunderstorm situation for Chch in future. In theory it's also possible to forecast funnel clouds / tornadoes to for the coming day whatever that day may be or if it will ever come at all! I can't wait until I see the oppertunity to be able to make such a forecast!
Has there ever been a time that funnel clouds or tornadoes have been forecast in NZ?
Drizzely Rain here at the moment, 3:21pm (Boring!).
Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson
"Warehouse" that's better!
"AB's" = All Blacks!
Yes I'm taking it to the next level! Hopefully this will help in forecasting the thunderstorm situation for Chch in future. In theory it's also possible to forecast funnel clouds / tornadoes to for the coming day whatever that day may be or if it will ever come at all! I can't wait until I see the oppertunity to be able to make such a forecast!
Has there ever been a time that funnel clouds or tornadoes have been forecast in NZ?
Drizzely Rain here at the moment, 3:21pm (Boring!).
Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson
-
- Posts: 18489
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re forecasting tornadoes. These are outside the scope of weather forecasting in NZ Aaron. Tornadoes tend to be freak occurances and quite rare in NZ. There has been very little study of tornadoes in NZ.
In USA damaging tornadoes are associated with mesocyclonic thunderstorms. A mesocyclone can form when there is good wind shear and the air is very unstable with both strong inflow and outflow within a cumulonimbus. Mesocyclones are predictable. Both the magnitude of the instability (CAPE) and strength of wind shear (helicity) are used to predict the likelyhood of a mesocyclone forming hence possibility of tornado formation. Both these parameters are measured daily by upper air soundings.
Just also add that there does not need to be a mesocyclone present for a funnel cloud. Many funnels are formed by a different process to that of mesocyclonic tornado formation.
Mesocyclones can be indentified at the inflow side of a cumulonimbus.
The cloud base will be substantialy lowered, have a very threatening appearance and show clear signs of rotation. Mesocyclones do occur in NZ from time to time. But not all mesocyclones produce tornadoes.
I suspect the strength of the surface inflow and the strength of the upper jet stream influence wether a tornado develops or not.
In USA damaging tornadoes are associated with mesocyclonic thunderstorms. A mesocyclone can form when there is good wind shear and the air is very unstable with both strong inflow and outflow within a cumulonimbus. Mesocyclones are predictable. Both the magnitude of the instability (CAPE) and strength of wind shear (helicity) are used to predict the likelyhood of a mesocyclone forming hence possibility of tornado formation. Both these parameters are measured daily by upper air soundings.
Just also add that there does not need to be a mesocyclone present for a funnel cloud. Many funnels are formed by a different process to that of mesocyclonic tornado formation.
Mesocyclones can be indentified at the inflow side of a cumulonimbus.
The cloud base will be substantialy lowered, have a very threatening appearance and show clear signs of rotation. Mesocyclones do occur in NZ from time to time. But not all mesocyclones produce tornadoes.
I suspect the strength of the surface inflow and the strength of the upper jet stream influence wether a tornado develops or not.
-
- Posts: 2068
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 19:47
- Location: Mt Somers
- Has thanked: 19 times
- Been thanked: 41 times
Thanks for the info Steven!
When there is the mesocyclone structure present does this mean the cloud can then be termed a supercell? ? Can't wait to see one of those!
Has anyone here actually seen a mesocyclone type structure here in NZ?
Perhaps that one in Chch last year (October 27th) was close, golf ball sized hail, a tornado, mayby?
I've read that particuly for severe thunderstorms (supercells?) it is good if the atmosphere is conditionally unstable, so in theory there needs to be some type of cap that holds off convection (not to strong a cap though) so all the suns energy that the land warms up from is released later in the afternoon so as to have more energy, I guess?
Re forecasting tornadoes. Even though I asked if anyone else knew of them being forecast in NZ (I just asked to see if anyone else had heard of this), I seem to recall somewhere in the back of my head someone mentioning or me hearing or seen a previous post on the old forum where someone said or wrote about how Augie from 3 news weather (used to be) said there was the chance of tornadoes or funnel clouds somewhere up in the north of the North Island a while ago. Whether he mentioned this on the news or one of his radio slots I don't know. Am I right here or am I imagening things? lol.
Also Micheal, I can see how much it actually rains in Auckland. I looked at your posts on the weatherzone.com.au forum and it is what you say, it rains alot in Auckland! Not to worry, a new day will rise, and if thats wet and rainy another day will rise and the process keeps going until one day there will be sun! then it will be back to rain, lol!
Very funny John!
Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson
When there is the mesocyclone structure present does this mean the cloud can then be termed a supercell? ? Can't wait to see one of those!
Has anyone here actually seen a mesocyclone type structure here in NZ?
Perhaps that one in Chch last year (October 27th) was close, golf ball sized hail, a tornado, mayby?
I've read that particuly for severe thunderstorms (supercells?) it is good if the atmosphere is conditionally unstable, so in theory there needs to be some type of cap that holds off convection (not to strong a cap though) so all the suns energy that the land warms up from is released later in the afternoon so as to have more energy, I guess?
Re forecasting tornadoes. Even though I asked if anyone else knew of them being forecast in NZ (I just asked to see if anyone else had heard of this), I seem to recall somewhere in the back of my head someone mentioning or me hearing or seen a previous post on the old forum where someone said or wrote about how Augie from 3 news weather (used to be) said there was the chance of tornadoes or funnel clouds somewhere up in the north of the North Island a while ago. Whether he mentioned this on the news or one of his radio slots I don't know. Am I right here or am I imagening things? lol.
Also Micheal, I can see how much it actually rains in Auckland. I looked at your posts on the weatherzone.com.au forum and it is what you say, it rains alot in Auckland! Not to worry, a new day will rise, and if thats wet and rainy another day will rise and the process keeps going until one day there will be sun! then it will be back to rain, lol!
Very funny John!
Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Every body is complaining about the weather in Auckland at the moment.
But bad weather is normal for Auckland in spring.
Raining heavily here at the moment with the guttering on the house overflowing. But the front is on us and I expect the rain to clear soon.
Once the front clears, the day should warm up to about 20C but showers likely to redevelop.
But bad weather is normal for Auckland in spring.
Raining heavily here at the moment with the guttering on the house overflowing. But the front is on us and I expect the rain to clear soon.
Once the front clears, the day should warm up to about 20C but showers likely to redevelop.
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
-
- Posts: 18489
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
I don't think so as it is drizzly/overcast and rainy at the moment here. Calm here as well with only a hint of a southerly. Boring.might be in for a tornado !!!!!!
I see MetService has got an advisory of another BLAST coming our way sometime tonight or tomorrow, I couldn't work out when. Better batten down the hatches !!!
JohnGaul
NZTS[/quote]
-
- Posts: 2068
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 19:47
- Location: Mt Somers
- Has thanked: 19 times
- Been thanked: 41 times
John, you replied to your own quote from your posting on page 2 of this thread, hehehe
Things look good for Northland today and Auckland I guess to for thunderstorms. Nice Picture Steven of that cloud! As for the bad weather in Auckland, I'm all for it, so it's really good weather to me, I just wish more of it came down here, in time!
Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson
Things look good for Northland today and Auckland I guess to for thunderstorms. Nice Picture Steven of that cloud! As for the bad weather in Auckland, I'm all for it, so it's really good weather to me, I just wish more of it came down here, in time!
Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson
-
- Posts: 18489
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
- Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
- Has thanked: 1769 times
- Been thanked: 1412 times
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
i could see that on the rain radar....
we only got the edge of it here.....luckily , as the ground is wet enough as it is (81mm for the month already, 95mm thereabouts is the average for october...) and 160mm or so in september....
its been a wet spring so far....the Southerly behind this low should dry things out...
we only got the edge of it here.....luckily , as the ground is wet enough as it is (81mm for the month already, 95mm thereabouts is the average for october...) and 160mm or so in september....
its been a wet spring so far....the Southerly behind this low should dry things out...
-
- Posts: 2068
- Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 19:47
- Location: Mt Somers
- Has thanked: 19 times
- Been thanked: 41 times
Auckland / Coromandel north looks to be the place for thunderstorms tomorrow (Monday), with the central Northland area looking best, we'll have to wait and see! well you guys up north anyway, not me. The Waikato isn't looking as good anymore, but then what I've said above could change again!
Thats alot of water Brian!
Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson
Thats alot of water Brian!
Cheers
Aaron Wilkinson
-
- Posts: 182
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 20:54
- Location: Far North, NZ
- Has thanked: 13 times
- Been thanked: 46 times
All quiet up here. Some heavy falls at times last night, but nothing of too much interest. Surface flooding across SH 10 coincided with high tide at Kaeo - but floods there are everyday occurrance
Had cameras and thermos all ready to go last night to chase some more lightning, but it was a bust. Just as well I s'pose I think that last show has spoilt me for a long time.
Cheers
Had cameras and thermos all ready to go last night to chase some more lightning, but it was a bust. Just as well I s'pose I think that last show has spoilt me for a long time.
Cheers
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
I am pretty sure the anticyclone and sunshine forecast will be revised again like last week when we were told several days of sunshine and it was only like that last Monday and this week "One" showing yellow "suns"across the region-it looks too W or SW for that as the west continent heats up moving the high northwards