Cyclone Kate
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Cyclone Kate
looks intertesting see what happens thoughts anyone?
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0033 UTC 22 February 2006
GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1002 hectopascals located at
220000 UTC near 10.7 south 143.5 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
poor.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/40 knots in 18 to 24 hours time.
Seas rising very rough.
Forecast position at 221200 UTC 11.0 south and 144.9 east with central pressure
1000 hPa and maximum winds to 30 knots.
Forecast position at 230000UTC 11.0 south and 145.5 east with central pressure
998 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0033 UTC 22 February 2006
GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1002 hectopascals located at
220000 UTC near 10.7 south 143.5 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
poor.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 30 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/40 knots in 18 to 24 hours time.
Seas rising very rough.
Forecast position at 221200 UTC 11.0 south and 144.9 east with central pressure
1000 hPa and maximum winds to 30 knots.
Forecast position at 230000UTC 11.0 south and 145.5 east with central pressure
998 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.
Last edited by squid on Thu 23/02/2006 14:30, edited 1 time in total.
- Willoughby
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yer i know i been reading they r so desprate to have a cyclone lol anyways looks like it is developing now
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE
FOR 24 HOURS FROM 1100UTC 22 FEBRUARY 2006
PART 1 WARNINGS
GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals located at
220600 UTC near 11.2 south 144.2 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
fair. Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18 hours.
Within 50 nautical miles of the centre.
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/45 knots in 12 to 18 hours time.
Seas rising very rough.
Forecast position at 221800 UTC 11.4 south and 145.1 east with central pressure
995 hPa and maximum winds to 35 knots.
Forecast position at 230600UTC 11.4 south and 145.8 east with central pressure
987 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots.
PART 2 SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals located at
220600 UTC near 11.2 south 144.2 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
fair.
A monsoon trough from 11S142E to tropical low to 12S160E to 15S170E. A high lies
in the Tasman Sea.
PART 3 FORECAST
Within 50nm of the low centre. Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/45
knots in 12 to 18 hours time. Seas rising very rough.
HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR METAREA 10
NORTH EASTERN AREA EQUATOR TO 28S, 142E TO 170E
ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE
FOR 24 HOURS FROM 1100UTC 22 FEBRUARY 2006
PART 1 WARNINGS
GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals located at
220600 UTC near 11.2 south 144.2 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
fair. Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 18 hours.
Within 50 nautical miles of the centre.
Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/45 knots in 12 to 18 hours time.
Seas rising very rough.
Forecast position at 221800 UTC 11.4 south and 145.1 east with central pressure
995 hPa and maximum winds to 35 knots.
Forecast position at 230600UTC 11.4 south and 145.8 east with central pressure
987 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots.
PART 2 SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 1000 hectopascals located at
220600 UTC near 11.2 south 144.2 east, and moving east at 5 knots. Position
fair.
A monsoon trough from 11S142E to tropical low to 12S160E to 15S170E. A high lies
in the Tasman Sea.
PART 3 FORECAST
Within 50nm of the low centre. Clockwise winds 20/30 knots, increasing to 35/45
knots in 12 to 18 hours time. Seas rising very rough.
- Storm Struck
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It now has a name Tropical storm Kate I believe that name has already been used has it not I also believe there is a rule about re naming storms i remember watching a docco on cyclones,hurricanes and they said of course most are american scientific names but they can't acually re name a storm if its already been named before.
I guess its like calling the next cyclone down here Ivan and then one asks ''ohh which one''? .
Cheers
Jason.
I guess its like calling the next cyclone down here Ivan and then one asks ''ohh which one''? .
Cheers
Jason.
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I can certainly understand any rules against naming hurricanes/cyclones a 2nd time after big ones that have been before - imagine another Katrina, Bola, or Tracey? But with more and more such storms to come, they'll have to start coming up with new sets of names, say Russian, Arabic (popular with right-wing Americans I can imagine) or Spanish.I also believe there is a rule about re naming storms i remember watching a docco on cyclones,hurricanes and they said of course most are american scientific names but they can't acually re name a storm if its already been named before.
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Hurricane Bin Laden....can't wait!tich wrote:I can certainly understand any rules against naming hurricanes/cyclones a 2nd time after big ones that have been before - imagine another Katrina, Bola, or Tracey? But with more and more such storms to come, they'll have to start coming up with new sets of names, say Russian, Arabic (popular with right-wing Americans I can imagine) or Spanish.I also believe there is a rule about re naming storms i remember watching a docco on cyclones,hurricanes and they said of course most are american scientific names but they can't acually re name a storm if its already been named before.
- Willoughby
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Or Aboriginal?tich wrote:I can certainly understand any rules against naming hurricanes/cyclones a 2nd time after big ones that have been before - imagine another Katrina, Bola, or Tracey? But with more and more such storms to come, they'll have to start coming up with new sets of names, say Russian, Arabic (popular with right-wing Americans I can imagine) or Spanish.I also believe there is a rule about re naming storms i remember watching a docco on cyclones,hurricanes and they said of course most are american scientific names but they can't acually re name a storm if its already been named before.
Kate really ate up my words there!
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and here she is
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:00 EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006
At 10am EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 1 with central pressure
992 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.0S 145.5E, about 310 km
northeast of Lockhart River, and moving to the east-southeast at about 8 km/hr.
The cyclone is not expected to move appreciably over the next 48 hours.
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11:00 EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006
At 10am EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 1 with central pressure
992 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.0S 145.5E, about 310 km
northeast of Lockhart River, and moving to the east-southeast at about 8 km/hr.
The cyclone is not expected to move appreciably over the next 48 hours.
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cat 2 now
IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4pm EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006
At 4pm EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 2, with central pressure
985 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 146.4E, about 370 km
east-northeast of Lockhart River. The cyclone has been moving to the
east-southeast at about 16 km/hr, however it is expected to become slow moving
again overnight.
IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4pm EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006
At 4pm EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 2, with central pressure
985 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 146.4E, about 370 km
east-northeast of Lockhart River. The cyclone has been moving to the
east-southeast at about 16 km/hr, however it is expected to become slow moving
again overnight.
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We had some squally showers in NE NSW, they seems a affection from high pressure as they doing weathering between cyclone and high pressures. Heavy shower came here this arvo with winds gust up to 35knots!!!!
More squally showers expected to come during to ending thos week, more severe weather developing with huge storms developing before cyclone Kate gets closer!
Matt
More squally showers expected to come during to ending thos week, more severe weather developing with huge storms developing before cyclone Kate gets closer!
Matt
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IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10pm EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006
At 10pm EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 2, with central pressure
985 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 147.4E, about 460 km
east-northeast of Lockhart River. The cyclone has been moving to the east at
about 18 km/hr, however it is expected to slow down during the next 12 to 24
hours.
Currently Tropical Cyclone Kate poses no threat to the Queensland coast.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10pm EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006
At 10pm EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 2, with central pressure
985 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 147.4E, about 460 km
east-northeast of Lockhart River. The cyclone has been moving to the east at
about 18 km/hr, however it is expected to slow down during the next 12 to 24
hours.
Currently Tropical Cyclone Kate poses no threat to the Queensland coast.
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IDQ20008
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1204 UTC 23 February 2006
STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals located at
231200 UTC near 11.3 south 147.4 east and moving east at 10 knots. Position
fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and
increasing to 50 knots with 20nm of centre. Maximum winds increasing to 55 to 60
knots near the centre over the next 24 hours.
Seas rising very rough to high.
Forecast position at 240000 UTC 11.3 south and 149.0 east with central pressure
980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots.
Forecast position at 241200 UTC 11.2 south and 149.5 east with central pressure
975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots.
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1204 UTC 23 February 2006
STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical Cyclone Kate with a central pressure of 985 hectopascals located at
231200 UTC near 11.3 south 147.4 east and moving east at 10 knots. Position
fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and
increasing to 50 knots with 20nm of centre. Maximum winds increasing to 55 to 60
knots near the centre over the next 24 hours.
Seas rising very rough to high.
Forecast position at 240000 UTC 11.3 south and 149.0 east with central pressure
980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots.
Forecast position at 241200 UTC 11.2 south and 149.5 east with central pressure
975 hPa and maximum winds to 60 knots.
- Willoughby
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GFS is currently not picking up Kate at all well. NGP has picked it up well and it's track forecast is very interesting. ECMWF looks pretty ugly.Razor wrote:Metvuw now projecting some activity close to NZ around Thursday next week. I would guess this has an uncertain confirdence rating?
Huge model variability at the moment so who knows? It has weaked significantly over night
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- Willoughby
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if we have ngp correct.. which is highly unlikely,Manukau heads observer wrote: nogaps had it moving south and then SW into queensland in one of its runs i saw
the West of NZ maybe in.. that'd be nice
Sat loop: https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/cgi-bin/l ... SIR01_L,24
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Sorry I'm new here...NGP? etc? Whats the local lingo here folks, and any web links?Manukau heads observer wrote:its still a very small TC at this stage, and so needs to get a whole lot bigger for any chance of getting down this way
but they can grow like overnight!
nogaps had it moving south and then SW into queensland in one of its runs i saw
- Willoughby
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Sorry, NOGAPS is the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System from America.. the metvuw site you had up before is purely the GFS (Global Forecast System) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in America also.Razor wrote: Sorry I'm new here...NGP? etc? Whats the local lingo here folks, and any web links?
here's what the NGP is showing, https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006022312
And the Joint Typhoon Warning Center use that to forecast it's tracks (with guidance!) (http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi)
the ECMWF model is very accurate and boasts the most computer power (http://www.ecmwf.int) (a joint EU operation)
yet the UKMO model from the UK Met Office proved the best hurricane global model to work from last year in the Atlantic.
Then you have models like GASP, LAPS, T-LAPS, JMA, and MM5 models which the BoM and MetService uses
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kate dies overnight
IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
CORRECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 1100 EST on Friday the 24th of February 2006
At 11am EST Friday, Ex Tropical Cyclone Kate with central pressure 995 hPa, was
located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 146.5E, about 400 km east-northeast
of Lockhart River. The system will continue to be monitored and if it redevelops
further information bulletins will be issued.
IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
CORRECTED TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 1100 EST on Friday the 24th of February 2006
At 11am EST Friday, Ex Tropical Cyclone Kate with central pressure 995 hPa, was
located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 146.5E, about 400 km east-northeast
of Lockhart River. The system will continue to be monitored and if it redevelops
further information bulletins will be issued.
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Probably the tropical boundary is furthur north than normal as the northern hempisphere seems to be rewarming also early again after their mild winter
Manukau heads observer wrote:i thought it was looking smaller and less significant on the sat image
been a real fizzer so far this year for TC's
maybe the northern hemisphere big seasons leaves nothing left for the southern hemisphere......LOL