North Island ex-tropical storm late March?

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Sat 18/03/2006 10:34

The latest GFS run has some heavy rain, strong to gale winds, and potential ex-tropical depressions running over or near the north and east of the North Island later in the week. Still early days on this one, but it looks to me a bit more convincing than the similar predictions made a few times in the last few weeks. I get the feeling that the build up of easterly weather to the north of NZ is likely to extend south at some point, and this coming week may be it. Keep an eye on it, especially if you have crops near harvest.

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Sat 18/03/2006 10:55

Late Tuesday and ongoing into Wednesday looks to have some interest...

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 18/03/2006 12:04

TonyT wrote:The latest GFS run has some heavy rain, strong to gale winds, and potential ex-tropical depressions running over or near the north and east of the North Island later in the week. Still early days on this one, but it looks to me a bit more convincing than the similar predictions made a few times in the last few weeks. I get the feeling that the build up of easterly weather to the north of NZ is likely to extend south at some point, and this coming week may be it. Keep an eye on it, especially if you have crops near harvest.

Is that the one developing on and southeast of New Caledonia?

edit, i'd just wait until the next GFS run is out.. as this one is really out of the blue.

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Sat 18/03/2006 12:12

TC Larry is born...

jrj · Unread post by **jrj** » Sat 18/03/2006 12:21

My birthday next Friday

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Sat 18/03/2006 12:28

James wrote:My birthday next Friday

Well your name is not Larry...

ricky · Unread post by **ricky** » Sat 18/03/2006 13:08

Mine too

Second run is showing greater instability and development.. this could be interesting

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 18/03/2006 13:44

Yes, a big change in the charts there

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 18/03/2006 14:33

James wrote:My birthday next Friday

Haha this is crazy it's mine on Saturday

.
Cheers
Jason.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 18/03/2006 15:57

you guys could be in for a slamming according to the latest gfs run in 5 days time

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 18/03/2006 17:10

squid wrote:you guys could be in for a slamming according to the latest gfs run in 5 days time

No.. the latest avaliable run has eased conditions over the North Island.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sat 18/03/2006 17:16

Its my Birthday in October!! Does that count?

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Sat 18/03/2006 19:35

03 Stormchaser wrote:Its my Birthday in October!! Does that count?

So is mine... And I will be ** gulp ** 50...

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Sat 18/03/2006 21:57

well the models have changed their mind sheesh now it looks like you wont be getting anything much

KiwiWeather · Unread post by **KiwiWeather** » Mon 20/03/2006 08:20

03 Stormchaser wrote:Its my Birthday in October!! Does that count?

Me to.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 20/03/2006 10:56

The only model worth getting excited about is the ECMRF (my opinion only) and there has been no suggestion of a ex tropical TC in our neck of woods yet. This model does nothing with 'Wati' though that could change. What does look likely though is NZ will be getting into a moist easterly scenario with drizzle in eastern areas and showers or rain the north, fine in the west.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 20/03/2006 11:09

The only model worth getting excited about is the ECMRF (my opinion only) and there has been no suggestion of a ex tropical TC in our neck of woods yet. This model does nothing with 'Wati' though that could change.

As the High moves out to our east at the end of the week perhaps some development to our north will come down.

should be some afternoon showers around Ak this week.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 20/03/2006 11:24

A few t/cu out there today. I see Met Service have a high ts risk for the Waikato region tomorrow.

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North Island ex-tropical storm late March?

North Island ex-tropical storm late March?

Re: North Island ex-tropical storm late March?