Xmas day forecast

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 21/12/2003 21:51

21 degrees today after the morning sun disappered for the day.Getting really wet around these parts with my back lawn now emerald green,we are now on no water restrictions.
Have seen a decent Cu or Cb cloud for all ages,just boring old cloudy weather,feels like we are living in western England.

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Mon 22/12/2003 11:37

You should try Invercargill. Yesterday it blew all day getting to gale force at times with westerlies up to 40 kts.Temps around 12 degrees. Been dry to date with only 30mm for the month so far. Today better, light SW scattered cloud and temps about 10 degrees at obs. Got 2mm in a brief SW flick last night. Fire restrictions going in this week as inland Southland drying out fast.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 22/12/2003 12:30

3.5mm here overnight, the weak slow moving front has cleared here now

an interesting link here:
http://www.predictweather.com/free_fore ... y=Auckland

latest met service forecast for the upper NI, is rain late tomorrow through to wedensday morningish, then scattered showers on xmas day with a westerly...
so those early models were sort of correct in that they had a NW flow over NZ, but in reality the flow will be more westerly

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 22/12/2003 16:58

NW arn't too bad here the wind doesnt get to gale force here like a SW and the weather is usually better too and a W here often brings cbs and ts but we can get squalls and also long fine periods where a SW is really dirty here with gales and constant showers and a SSW is usually a beebop day here "gales but long fine periods and scattered cloud often less than 2/8"

Manukau heads observer wrote: then scattered showers on xmas day with a westerly...
so those early models were sort of correct in that they had a NW flow over NZ, but in reality the flow will be more westerly

Manukau heads obs · Mon 22/12/2003 17:11

the NWer is one of our worst winds here on the coast west of you michael
you dont get it becuase the waitekere ranges deflect it down the coast here

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 22/12/2003 17:31

It must be like Wellingtons NWer I remember it can be very blustery when theres a N or NW flow and is like that to the Kapiti coast then its much lighter north of there with high cloud but it works reverse in a W airstream wheres Wellington and abouts is fine with a N or NW wheres north of Kapiti its usually a gale Westerly and showers

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 22/12/2003 17:53

A cool, often cloudy day today, but with sunshine at times. I climbed Mt Herbert earlier in the day. At just over 900 metres (highest peak on Banks Peninsula), it was not surprisingly quite alot cooler up there, and there were some brief light showers around that side of Lyttleton Harbour. Nothing of any significance - the land is very dry out there. While Jeff's weather station has today's prevailing wind as a northeasterly, it felt more like a southerly over there, and the clouds were coming from the south. A fresh northeasterly is now blowing in Chch.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 22/12/2003 18:29

The Invercargill sounding looks unseasonally chilly at lower levels with a false freezing level at around 1000m. Just the tail end of a cold westerly passing through. Milder tomorrow.

The Xmas Eve front should be the last significant rainfall for 2003 over the north. May get some warm advective thunderstorms forming on this front. Dewpoints mid to high teens over the upper North Island today.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 22/12/2003 18:36

The Invercargill sounding looks unseasonally chilly at lower levels with a false freezing level at around 1000m. Just the tail end of a cold westerly passing through. Milder tomorrow.

False freezing level? What is meant by that? Would it have meant snow showers above about 700 or 800 metres in the far south under this freezing level?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 22/12/2003 21:41

Ben, 'false freezing' level is a term I just coined.

There are two freezing levels on todays sounding and it is the higher one that is the freezing level.

Note that the very cool air is really only on the surface. Relatively warm air on top. Hense this is a very stable airmass. Cumulus tops would only be to about 1400m which is a bit shallow for precipitation.

The 500hpa temperature is minus 13C. In a proper cold outbreak, you would expect it to be minus 30C or colder.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Tue 23/12/2003 16:43

AVN models and metservice are predicting quite a cool change to the north island, Rotorua 14c!
For the boxing day test match, MetService are predicting an unusual 26c, AVN has it as 20c and NW winds 60-75km/h!
Suuuper-heavy bails maybe?

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 24/12/2003 08:16

Definitely can tell its Xmas week with inclement weather and rain Hopefully it clears up after Boxing Day

Manukau heads obs · Wed 24/12/2003 09:22

some heavy rain showers here this morning from the re activated, cart wheeled hurtled, north tasman sea cold front!

looking a bit brighter now
xm,as day here for auckland should see long fine intervals and a few showers and W to SW winds

merry xmas everyone

Manukau heads obs · Wed 24/12/2003 09:24

oh and
http://www.predictweather.com/free_fore ... y=Auckland
condradicts what was stated on the holmes show over a week ago
odd that
???

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 24/12/2003 10:13

Yes, a bit of heavy rain around Auckland this morning, but looks to have eased now.

Air looks unstable over the South Island so maybe a ts or two down there this afternoon.

Merry Xmas

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 24/12/2003 10:40

The wind now has turned to the Gale direction(maybe a squall before it goes more westerly)

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Wed 24/12/2003 14:41

A few nice cloud buildups this afternoon especially towards the coast,hopefully they will continue to develop.Temp 26 degrees.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Wed 24/12/2003 15:18

The gusty W wind changed to SSW about half an hour ago and the temps dropped from 27 to 20C.

Some nice dark cloud bases and some promising large drops of rain but nothing heard here. Now light rain from clearing sunny skies

I see MetService are now saying that the NWer on Fri/Sat will "knock on gale force" but may "struggle to hit severe gale"

Merry Xmas,

Steven

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 25/12/2003 08:14

Merry Xmas

Today we have mostly cloudy weather with westerlies and cool probably good for the day with hot meals etc and gales likely later today as the low moves east with a ridge in the tasman

Dean. · Unread post by **Dean.** » Thu 25/12/2003 08:43

Merry Xmas

Overcast and mild,temp 16.5

Cheers

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Thu 25/12/2003 10:11

Merry Xmas everyone

This morning Temp 15 degrees 13 kt westerly which is freshening.5/8ths cloud . Only 0.5mm rain out of SW change of last night. Will attempt barbeque outside at lunchtime! Pressure not rising much

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 03/01/2004 13:26

Deano wrote:A few nice cloud buildups this afternoon especially towards the coast,hopefully they will continue to develop.Temp 26 degrees.

I had reports of a thunderstorm over Rakaia this day plus another one in the Geraldine area. Not much rain with it however

JohnGaul
NZTS