Low risk of thunder for Canterbury Friday 15th - Sunday 17th
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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yeah nice pics john!. i clearly saw that last one!
Particarly over the port hills /BP way saw that very cold icy cloud.Nothing has looked very thundery to me today.
I never thought it would today ya could just feel what it was going to do.Might see the odd flicker out offshore tonight/ out to sea but i wouldnt think we will see anything onshore tonight. notice also the wind has gone NE
Particarly over the port hills /BP way saw that very cold icy cloud.Nothing has looked very thundery to me today.
I never thought it would today ya could just feel what it was going to do.Might see the odd flicker out offshore tonight/ out to sea but i wouldnt think we will see anything onshore tonight. notice also the wind has gone NE
Mike
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Interesting to see those pics John. Ah well, the development did occur in about the right place but it was probably held back not only by lowish dewpoints but the strong dry westerly flow probably continued over the top of the convection and held it back. Thats the impression I got from some of your pics.
Paul
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I think the dry mid level air would favour convective development.strong dry westerly flow probably continued over the top of the convection and held it back
Problems in the upper air would have been thermodynamic, just not cold enough aloft to provide an unstable lapse rate. I notice things turned alot colder late in the day judging by Invercargills sounding.
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Yes, you're probably right that it didn't get cold enough aloft - for the available surface moisture and strength of the surface convergence.
I see the southerly change got into Ashburton/Christchurch area about 2 hours after I had reckoned (5 and 6pm) and the surface values were: Temp about 11C and dewpoint about 6C, whereas I had gone for 14/6 at about 3pm. My earlier values may have powered the convection a little stronger but then it would have been a tad warmer aloft then! There's lots of trade offs in getting it right. (I see the southerly reached 29knots at Le Bons Bay at 5pm).
I think there is also some evidence to suggest that while there was low level convergence on the southerly (stronger over the sea) and therefore low level ascent, the dry westerly flow aloft may have had some descent in it and so acted to suppress the convection. The clouds in John's pictures did have a broad flattish look about them.
Paul
I see the southerly change got into Ashburton/Christchurch area about 2 hours after I had reckoned (5 and 6pm) and the surface values were: Temp about 11C and dewpoint about 6C, whereas I had gone for 14/6 at about 3pm. My earlier values may have powered the convection a little stronger but then it would have been a tad warmer aloft then! There's lots of trade offs in getting it right. (I see the southerly reached 29knots at Le Bons Bay at 5pm).
I think there is also some evidence to suggest that while there was low level convergence on the southerly (stronger over the sea) and therefore low level ascent, the dry westerly flow aloft may have had some descent in it and so acted to suppress the convection. The clouds in John's pictures did have a broad flattish look about them.
Paul
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Might be an isolated shower or two this afternoon some weak CU out looks to be abit of moisture to the SW too.
Wind is currently NE and I would tend to think it will go SW later on with it being quite strong in the far south.
It never turned southerly here yesterday just westerly then NE.
Cheers
Jason.
Wind is currently NE and I would tend to think it will go SW later on with it being quite strong in the far south.
It never turned southerly here yesterday just westerly then NE.
Cheers
Jason.
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Not any more, weak change to go thru Friday. Doesnt even look like it will produce a shower for us. Upper air getting far to warm aswell -20C.NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:....according to ECMWF, later next week looks quite interestering
JohnGaul
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Should be a Warm week, Gusty NW tues-thursday.
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We're having showers out here on the peninsula this evening, but Chch could be missing out, with nothing recorded at Hillmorton so far.
Last edited by tich on Sun 17/09/2006 21:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Just went out to check the garage was closed and much to my surprise, ran into a few spots of rain. Seems have stopped now, didn't even wet the deck. Some stars visable so just an isolated and very light shower.tich wrote:We're showers out here on the peninsula this evening, but Chch could be missing out, with nothing recorded at Hillmorton so far.
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