Australian outlook for late spring/early summer

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 27/09/2006 12:02

The high probabilities shown in the temp. outlook plus (fairly) likely dryness in parts of the southeast will not be very welcome I imagine.

http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/med ... 926T.shtml

Tim S · Unread post by **Tim S** » Wed 27/09/2006 13:37

Yeah they arent RWood, though I tend not to trust these 3 month outlooks that much, they seem to be fairly innacurate which is not surprising given the fact that they are prediciting weather for up to 3 months in advance. Saying this though they are improving but take a look at the 3 month forecast for the same period last year:
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/med ... 915R.shtml
compared to the actual rainfall for thos 3 months:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/r ... us&steps=8

Hardly an accurate forecast, though the outlook confidence was rather low and early summer rainfall can be very hard to predict.

Though it wasn't as bad as this outlook where they pretty much said, 'we have no idea of what the next 3 months will hold, giving most of Oz a 50% chance of average rainfall. (May-July 06) http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/med ... 421R.shtml
then this happened:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/r ... us&steps=1

Don't get me wrong though I am not saying these forecasts are completely useless, they just need to be taken cautiously, which is not surprising given the outlook timescale. They are still among the most accurate forecasts we have for that kinda timescale.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Wed 27/09/2006 13:43

Fair comment, but the probabilities used reflect this anyway - the ominous part being the high probability of higher temps. over a significant area. When the probabilities are equivocal that in itself is useful information - eg risk assessement has to be ready for a wide range of outcomes. In NZ they make the mistake of not presenting the probabilities in the media versions and the public assume they are literal forecasts.

Tim S · Unread post by **Tim S** » Wed 27/09/2006 14:38

Yeah Temp outlooks for the Eastern parts of Australia tend to be fairly good for that time of year, well it was last year anyway. Though for the same period last year they had a 70-80% chance of the Western parts of West Aussie exceeding the average Max and Min for that period but we landed up getting one of our coolest October to December periods on records. Now when you have an outlook confidence as high as 70-80% and for the reverse to happen it is fairly poor forecasting to say the least.

Though as you said the BoM seem to be doing a better long range forecast than your met, so I shouldnt be complaining, but I am an Aussie after all

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Wed 27/09/2006 15:03

If there is an 80% chance of something happening, then one out of five times it is predicted, it wont happen. Thats not poor forecasting, its just maths.

janewaystv · Unread post by **janewaystv** » Wed 27/09/2006 15:45

[quote="Tim S] we landed up getting one of our coolest October to December periods on records.[/quote]

Yes thats right, can remember we had our hottest December (2005) maximum average (29oC) as well as our sunniest December ever with 322 hours. Someone remarked that Sydney and Perth had swapped the temps and sunshine

.

We had presistant NW-W winds and lack of E winds which normally bring cool temps to Sydney whereas in Perth they had persistant W winds and lack of E winds which bring warmer temps to Perth.

Tim S · Unread post by **Tim S** » Thu 28/09/2006 15:09

So we can blame you guys for stealing our summer!

I have a feeling this year will be different though, I think we will both get very warm summers though I hope you guys dont get the extreme temps you got last year, though it does look rather omnious for a bad bushfire season.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 28/09/2006 15:43

offtopic, i often notice people have trouble getting the quotes to work correctly on the forum
its easy
just highlight the text to be as a quote and then click on the quote button

janewaystv · Unread post by **janewaystv** » Thu 28/09/2006 17:00

Tim S wrote:So we can blame you guys for stealing our summer! I have a feeling this year will be different though, I think we will both get very warm summers though I hope you guys dont get the extreme temps you got last year, though it does look rather omnious for a bad bushfire season.

Was just harking back to NYD (1st Jan) when we had 45oC here in Sydney, that was just horrendous-far too hot to do anything at all, even the beaches and streets were desterted as we all stayed indoors in front of fans/air-conditioners and keeping cool. Felt sorry for the plants/trees which had thier tops burnt. Happened to be our 2nd hottest day on record (after the record 45.3oC on 14th January 1939). I sure hope we dont see another day like that again!. Looks like to be a hotter than normal summer for all of Oz, but then who knows? The weather can change.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 28/09/2006 19:46

Tim S wrote:So we can blame you guys for stealing our summer! I have a feeling this year will be different though, I think we will both get very warm summers though I hope you guys dont get the extreme temps you got last year, though it does look rather omnious for a bad bushfire season.

Many of us would be very happy to have even your reduced version of summer.

Tim S · Unread post by **Tim S** » Thu 28/09/2006 20:56

I bet yah would RWood, then again a lot of us aussies would love your reduced version of annual rainfall too!

How about we do a swap, though to make it worth our while can we swap John Howard for Helen Clark too!

janewaystv · Unread post by **janewaystv** » Thu 05/10/2006 21:47

Tim S wrote:I bet yah would RWood, then again a lot of us aussies would love your reduced version of annual rainfall too!

You and me both and the whole country. Dry really bad at the moment, people are complaining about the lack of rain, over 90% of NSW now offically in drought

. Do send all of your rains over from Westland

Perhaps the landmasses should swap locations ??, that would be great

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 05/10/2006 23:03

You can also have our recent spell of local weather - one of the most miserable I can recall here (of say 12 days or longer) - cloudy to overcast on 10 of the 12 (in fact 9 of those virtually sunless) and an unpleasant southerly storm to finish with!

janewaystv · Unread post by **janewaystv** » Thu 05/10/2006 23:17

RWood wrote:You can also have our recent spell of local weather - one of the most miserable I can recall here (of say 12 days or longer) - cloudy to overcast on 10 of the 12 (in fact 9 of those virtually sunless) and an unpleasant southerly storm to finish with!

Far out man! We do have that here, but certainly not for that length of time

. Sounds similar to Melbourne, has many cloudy/overcast days during Autumn-Winter-Spring.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 06/10/2006 09:02

I wouldn't live here if that happened too often - expecting better things soon.

Regarding an older question of yours about rainfall here (Wellington) in various weather systems, I'm tracking down a paper that was published in 1986, if the nearby Uni. library can still find it - will probably know its fate today.

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sat 07/10/2006 18:50

Well check this out http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec7.html

That site showing alot of rain approaching from the east!

And more from SW and northern Australia (probably normal due to wet season approach). I not sure El Nino doing anything but i think it already has on last few months that happened to SE Aust.

Any comments?

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sun 08/10/2006 10:02

janewaystv wrote:
RWood wrote:You can also have our recent spell of local weather - one of the most miserable I can recall here (of say 12 days or longer) - cloudy to overcast on 10 of the 12 (in fact 9 of those virtually sunless) and an unpleasant southerly storm to finish with!
Far out man! We do have that here, but certainly not for that length of time . Sounds similar to Melbourne, has many cloudy/overcast days during Autumn-Winter-Spring.

Some brighter days now, but temps. struggling to recover. I note that W'gton had 2325 hrs of sun in the 12 months Aug 2005-July 2006 (close to the alltime record of 2359), and the totals were good for this August and September up to about the 21st, so maybe the recent event was a bit overdue.

Tim S · Unread post by **Tim S** » Fri 13/10/2006 02:25

Wowzers Rwood, thats impressive for you guys!

Your run better not be over, I will be in Wellington in a couple of months and it will be great if its still nice and sunny, I go crazy if I dont see the sun for a couple of days.

In regard to an earlier thread by janewaystv about 90% of NSW being in drought, this map really shows that picture in all its depressive glory: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/r ... r&area=aus

this one shows how bad and widespread this winter season has been for Oz: http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/r ... s&area=aus

Not a good picture at all when added to the outlook for this summer.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Fri 13/10/2006 10:28

Could be the "face of your future climate"

...but really with a developing El Nino it's not all that surprising I suspect. I still like to have the chance to holiday in a country where it's fairly easy to rattle up a run of sunny days. I hate dull weather

, will put up with just about anything else. You couldn't get me to live in most of the UK for a year for any money. Had a couple of weeks in Byron-Noosa-Brisbane in late August-early Sep 2004, and it started with 11 straight days of sun, scarcely a cloud anywhere.

Regarding our sun, Wellington on a few occasions has topped NZ's monthly sunshine totals. Despite a modest average, Hokitika has also had at least a couple of turns.