El Niño declared by NCEP

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Willoughby
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El Niño declared by NCEP

Unread post by Willoughby »

Well there we have it folks.. While it should be weak.. may see a few suprises here and there..
Synopsis: El Niño conditions have developed and are likely to continue into early 2007.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... _advisory/
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Unread post by squid »

bugga i hope that this one does not last very long
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Unread post by Cameo1 »

What does that mean for NZ? More thunder? lol. Sure hope so ;)
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

michael will be happy
means more SW winds
and drier in the east of both islands
(the trend anyway, there will still be times when its the opposite of that)
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Great conditions for thunderstorms here though 8) developing off the warm ocean provided we get enough Southerly wind changes.
Also a hot summer perhaps will be interesting.
Cheers
Jason.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

ocean temperatures on this side of the pacific tend to be colder in an el nino (and warmer in the eastern equatorial pacific)
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Unread post by Cameo1 »

oh damn...there goes my dreams lol
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Unread post by RWood »

Manukau heads observer wrote:ocean temperatures on this side of the pacific tend to be colder in an el nino (and warmer in the eastern equatorial pacific)
The major event of 1997/98 culminated in a warm January, record warmth in Feb. and a rather warm autumn (while the monthly index was strongly negative to end-April). All events are different and I think TonyT's comments apply - don't try to second-guess it, especially if the onset is at an atypical time.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, every El Nino has been different. The 1983 event was a stand out for cold weather across the whole country. It was an extraordinary event and unlikely to be repeated anytime soon.
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yup, i am just going by the norm for what you see in an el nino
and because this one is a weak one and starting at the wrong time.....then the effects here in NZ are not going to be great...and other longer term patterns will show through alot too (e.g this new 25 year less westerly pattern we are in now?)
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Unread post by Cameo1 »

So far the weather seems perfectly normal. Eqinoxial winds are right on time, the plants are experiencing normal steady growth and nothing really out of the ordinary. El Nino? Blaaa...!
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Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

well, el nino is the norm though....occurs more often and for longer than a la nina.....yes/no?
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Unread post by Gary McConnochie »

NZstorm wrote:Yes, every El Nino has been different. The 1983 event was a stand out for cold weather across the whole country. It was an extraordinary event and unlikely to be repeated anytime soon.
Shaping up to be another extraordinary event here in Canterbury. Very cool indeed.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, we have had a cool spring. My comments on 1983 were based on the summer period, December, January, February.

December 2004 would take some beating though. That was a particularly cool month.
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Unread post by RWood »

Summer 1982-83 temps were near normal in some eastern places, as well as being quite sunny in those places.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

Yes, I've just had a look back at the data. Ch Aero was only slightly below normal that summer compared to the south, west and north of the country that suffered under a southwesterly regime.

Interestingly December 2004 was cooler than December 1982 in many places. I can't remember what the cause of the cool Dec 2004 was. Maybe it was just a freak synoptic pattern.
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Unread post by RWood »

Very low pressures near the Chathams and a strong preponderance of S/SW airflows....(Dec 2004)

The thing about 1983 overall was that a lot of wet or very cloudy weather happened later in the year - May, September and October being particularly noteworthy.
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Unread post by kaimaikid »

ah bah humbug to both el nino and la nina - I just want thunder storms and cyclones - is that too much to ask for from the weather gods??? :roll: :evil: :twisted:
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Unread post by janewaystv »

RWood wrote:Very low pressures near the Chathams and a strong preponderance of S/SW airflows....(Dec 2004)

The thing about 1983 overall was that a lot of wet or very cloudy weather happened later in the year - May, September and October being particularly noteworthy.
Southerners complained about missing out on Summer complelety, Dec 1982 for Invercargill had 128mm for Dec 1982, Jan 1983 had 213mm and Feb had 84mm - they were accompained by very cloudy weather as well. Dec 82 saw 165 hrs, Jan 1983 131 hrs and Feb 135 hrs. (I had the privilege of being there during Dec 1982/Jan 1983 with my family - can remember it being quite wet, windy and cold) :)
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Unread post by RWood »

Yes but check out Gisborne, Napier, Blenheim or even Ch'ch - much better looking numbers.
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