Summer Outlook

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 02/12/2006 13:57

Heard something on the radio today about NIWA forecasting "more of the same" for NZ. What we had in spring we will have for summer. Thats how NewstalkZB put it anyway.

My prediiction for the Auckland region.
I expect the weather to turn much drier after a wet spring. Sunshine will be above average while temps will be a little below normal.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 02/12/2006 14:18

i think sunshine might be below average due to cloudy SW winds (anticyclonic gloom) type conditions maybe?
(which will mean cooler temperatures too)

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 02/12/2006 14:46

I'll have a go... constant southwesterlies for Southland from late January.. with a better than normal thunderstorm season over Canterbury/Otago... very dry over the upper North Island with possible wetter than normal conditions in Eastland. Warmer northerlies.. and an increase in them too.

Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98? This summer could shape up quite the same as that one.
The SOI trends look quite the same at the start of that El Nino.. this one looks just a bit steeper with the standard SOI.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... /figt2.gif

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 02/12/2006 15:18

I like the sound of that Foggy Hamilton

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Sat 02/12/2006 15:18

Foggy Hamilton wrote:I'll have a go... constant southwesterlies for Southland from late January.. with a better than normal thunderstorm season over Canterbury/Otago... very dry over the upper North Island with possible wetter than normal conditions in Eastland. Warmer northerlies.. and an increase in them too.

Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98? This summer could shape up quite the same as that one.
The SOI trends look quite the same at the start of that El Nino.. this one looks just a bit steeper with the standard SOI.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... /figt2.gif

I'm going to copy this to see if you get it right.

Very mild at the moment with a northerly breeze.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 02/12/2006 15:56

Was thinking along the same lines as Foggy I think storm season where there is usually more thunderstorms will possibly extend itself a week so usually it's 20th December-January 5th instead perhaps 20th December-15th January.
Best time is usually around xmas new years when there can be 4-5 days of thunder in a row but last year was a dud really

.
Have heard thunder on 3 days so far this season not bad but here's hoping for some proper ones soon.
Small risk here tomorrow evening with the windchange at this stage but better further south.
Cheers
Jason.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 02/12/2006 16:06

Steven or anyone, what were the thunderstorms like in the summer of '97/'98?

That was a sunny very warm summer Foggy. December and January were very stable months in the north, February and March were more unstable.

with a better than normal thunderstorm season over Canterbury/Otago..

Yes, odds are that there will be more thunderstorms than normal in east Otago/Canterbury.

i think sunshine might be below average due to cloudy SW winds (anticyclonic gloom) type conditions maybe?

Yes. Hopefully the SW are not too moist/cloudy.
I am predicting higher sunshine due to less convective cloud. In a normal summer those sea breeze fronts can really cloud up our skies.

As the SW pattern is very dry in the summer months we could have a drought by late summer Brian.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 02/12/2006 16:17

Agree with NZstorm, South Westerlies in Summer bring us good weather, but cooler out your way Brian.

Should be some great holiday weather this summer over Coromandel and Northland

dogmelon · Unread post by **dogmelon** » Sat 02/12/2006 16:22

Two Thunderstorms over Spring and Summer would count as above average for Canterbury. It hasn't been good Watermelon growing weather so far so any improvement would be welcome.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 03/12/2006 09:59

what are the chances of a TC hitting NZ this summer?
i think above average...maybe before xmas?
as there has been alot of early activity in the coral sea....

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 03/12/2006 10:36

Manukau heads observer wrote:what are the chances of a TC hitting NZ this summer?
i think above average...maybe before xmas?
as there has been alot of early activity in the coral sea....

Yeah it has been very active that way.. but it's only the eastern third of the Coral Sea.. so I think we'll see a lot of our 'bound' systems will skirt off past East Cape giving us just instead anti-cyclonic southeasterlies?

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 03/12/2006 11:22

but it's only the eastern third of the Coral Sea..

Not as many storms over Top End Australia so far this season, glad I didn't plan a trip up there this year, was thinking about it.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 03/12/2006 11:28

we have been so deprived of thunderstorms here this year, will have to go to the US again next year!
(I have been milking cows every weekend to save up!)

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 03/12/2006 12:31

Manukau heads observer wrote:we have been so deprived of thunderstorms here this year, will have to go to the US again next year!
(I have been milking cows every weekend to save up!)

Stop teasing me, the more I think about it, the more I am tempted to try to go as well.

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 03/12/2006 14:03

Im penciled in to go!

cant wait!

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sun 03/12/2006 16:21

Whats our chances of thunder tomorrow?

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Sun 03/12/2006 17:04

It would be nice to have a decent hot/sunny/humid long summer but then pigs can fly

Cameo1 · Unread post by **Cameo1** » Sun 03/12/2006 19:00

I reckon we'll have an extra long Summer, and it will be very hot in the latter half with severe thunderstorms about.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 03/12/2006 19:15

I have seen atleast one forecaster predict a wet January for Auckland with low pressure systems coming in from the north. Its interesting to see a variation in opinion out there.

Top End Australia so far this season, glad I didn't plan a trip up there this year, was thinking about it.

Certainly would be a good trip to do one day although I think NSW is the place for storms in Aussie. NSW does get supercells whereas NT doesn't.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 03/12/2006 20:45

going by matt , NE NSW gets a severe thunderstorm every other day just about!

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 04/12/2006 00:01

Manukau heads observer wrote:going by matt , NE NSW gets a severe thunderstorm every other day just about!

Andrew Massie · Unread post by **Andrew Massie** » Mon 04/12/2006 12:40

tornadoman18 wrote:Whats our chances of thunder tomorrow?

Ummm...gay to super gay? Nearly out of the closet inland, though..

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 04/12/2006 20:20

NE NSW gets a severe thunderstorm every other day just about!

Severe thunderstorms are quite common there in spring/summer. But they are not all supercells. Would be a good place to live if you like thunderstorms.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 05/12/2006 10:38

NSW does get supercells whereas NT doesn't.

NT is usually a more reliable place for storms this time of year.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 06/12/2006 20:21

We dont need to look at GASP,Metvue,gfs etc etc or any of that these days,theyll all show high pressure permnantly in the tasman