Canterbury potential thunderstorms 12th...

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Andrew Massie
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Canterbury potential thunderstorms 12th...

Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Here we go.. fingers crossed again.. Strong NW today with active S front coming through later... Since John's dissappeared, i'll give it a 2 ;)
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Unread post by squid »

Severe Convection/ Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: 12:00 am 13 Dec 2006 NZDT
Issued at: 8:33 am 12 Dec 2006 NZDT

A cold front will move onto Fiordland this morning then move quickly north to lie near Farewell Spit at midnight tonight. This front is likely to bring a few embedded thunderstorms to Fiordland and South Westland, but the risk of thunderstorm activity reduces as the front moves further north in the late afternoon and evening. Some brief heavy rain can be expected with these storms.

In Otago, a southerly change will move north through the area in the afternoon and early evening bringing a period of rain. There is a possibility of one or two thunderstorms on the wind change, however this risk of storms is considered quite low.
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Unread post by squid »

A low chance but it is a chance lets off something pulls off this time
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Andrew Massie
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Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Here's hoping...thanks for the post, squid, considering the amount MS have been wrong lately, as always, I might be in with an outside chance!
:D
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Unread post by squid »

no worries mate let us know if anything happends
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Unread post by mikestormchaser »

S hit Oamaru around 4 pm apparently :lol: so it shouldn't be too far away from Christchurch now.
Been very warm here today, got up too about 28C hottest day this season :D
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Unread post by tich »

Southerly change has arrived in Chch, but no sign of thunderstorms; just the usual drop in temperature. 10pm radar has rain reaching up to mid Canterbury, but not looking too heavy.
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Unread post by Storm Struck »

Yes never really had any thunder potential really to me abit too dry.
Although a nice hot day 29C and i see 32C in Blenhium our first summer high temperatures hopefully more to come. 8)
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Unread post by Thunder »

Well you were close Andrew! :D

Looks to of been a thunderstorm this evening sort've between the Rangitata river and the Ashburton river, more closer to the Rangitata river though. Just inland from the coast.

I suspected as that weak front worked it's way up there was a small risk but I really didn't think too much of it, the conditions didn't seem to stack up. If one takes all these potential risks there would be alot of bust chases so this is a surprise storm indeed.

Cool to see none the less and good to see a surprise out there, was a nice tidy little line of convection by the looks.

Edit:

Looking at Timaru Figures at 7pm I'm quite surprised to see it getting to 19° with a 10 degree dewpoint. With some resonable convegence a thunderstorm could well have pulled off and has. Quite surprised indeed it got to 19° at 7pm but that's where it seems to of triggered and it would've needed it. I don't know why that little line of convection gets me going, seems kind've cool!

Cheers

P.S. And for those woundering where John Gaul is, he probably still doesn't have an internet connection yet at his new place in West Melton. I'll give him a ring sometime soon.
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Aaron Wilkinson
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Unread post by Andrew Massie »

Aaron J Wilkinson wrote:Well you were close Andrew! :D

Looks to of been a thunderstorm this evening sort've between the Rangitata river and the Ashburton river, more closer to the Rangitata river though. Just inland from the coast.

I suspected as that weak front worked it's way up there was a small risk but I really didn't think too much of it, the conditions didn't seem to stack up. If one takes all these potential risks there would be alot of bust chases so this is a surprise storm indeed.
Yay! Me nearly 1 Metservice 0! :D
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