Severe Easterly storm & Flooding, upper NI, 9 - 13th Jul

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Severe Easterly storm & Flooding, upper NI, 9 - 13th Jul

Unread post by spwill »

Weather works in patterns, and it is just they way they have patterning out in the last few weeks that have resulted in dramatic circumstances in western regions over the North Island especially.
Yes, also Sea temps in the Tasman are a little warmer currently, will aid general instability.
Might be in for a Thundery Spring.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Severe Easterly storm & Flooding, upper NI, 9 - 13th Jul

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

These warmer seas in the Tassy, this, with the colder water down south, should give interesting weather this spring, if the current weather pattern continues. :-k

JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
squid
Posts: 1304
Joined: Thu 16/06/2005 13:57
Location: Caboolture,QLD
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Severe Easterly storm & Flooding, upper NI, 9 - 13th Jul

Unread post by squid »

re dargaville comment if the wind had of been from the west it would have pushed the tide much higher it is just the way the harbour is set up they would have had a large storm surge aswell as the swollen river. witch in theroy would have pushed the river over its banks so thats why i say the SE or SSe winds helped save it plus the fact that the baro was on the rise witch i failed to mention in my previous post.
check out our online shop

www.delicatedelights.com.au
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 188 times
Been thanked: 123 times

Re:

Unread post by RWood »

TonyT wrote:
Wildland wrote: If I had the time, I'd chart the various events to see what their frequency looked like compared with contemporary events. One day...
A couple of years ago (and it was just 2 or so) NIWA published a study of heavy rainfall events from the NZ climate archive which showed no trend towards an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events somewhere in New Zealand over the last 100 years. Of course, thats not to say that some places in the country are not getting more frequent extreme events, but taken over all, nope.

I've tried, but cant find, any reference to that research on the NIWA site. Are there any NIWA lurkers out there who can help us with a link please?
I think this may be what you're looking for:

http://www.niwascience.co.nz/ncc/news/volatility/

Of interest to me is the duration of the warm (positive?) phase of the PDO (or IPO), which started in about 1977. It looked as if it was going to flip around 1998-2000, but that didn't happen. Assessments of volatility and ideas of the possible effects of warming on the PDO or ENSO indices will be interesting to revisit in another 10 years. Meanwhile, those who rush to decry any suggestion that warming is playing a part in climate events risk looking a bit foolish if they push too hard.
User avatar
TonyT
Moderator
Posts: 2878
Joined: Thu 08/05/2003 11:09
Location: Amberley, North Canterbury
Has thanked: 352 times
Been thanked: 1146 times

Re: Severe Easterly storm & Flooding, upper NI, 9 - 13th Jul

Unread post by TonyT »

RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 188 times
Been thanked: 123 times

Re: Severe Easterly storm & Flooding, upper NI, 9 - 13th Jul

Unread post by RWood »

TonyT wrote:Found it! See here: http://niwascience.co.nz/ncc/cu/2004-09/backgrounder" target="_blank
Have just received Weather & Climate 27 (May 2007). First paper on pages 3-44 is "Changes in New Zealand daily rainfall extremes 1930-2004" (G M Griffiths).

I think it will be very interesting to see if an another 5-10 years' worth of data changes anything.

To me a big issue is whether the effects of large rainfalls have worsened because of land use practices - that certainly seems to be true in the UK and Europe, let alone countries like the Philippines and Indonesia, say.
jrj
Posts: 462
Joined: Tue 18/03/2003 18:00
Location: Havelock North, New Zealand
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: Severe Easterly storm & Flooding, upper NI, 9 - 13th Jul

Unread post by jrj »

As per my observations in another post regarding the development of Napier....
Locked