Last Cold Front Coming for the year?

[Andy]

From the Otago Daily Times:

Back-country warning after 300m avalanche
By CHRIS MORRIS AND TRACEY ROXBURGH Wednesday, 15th August 2007
A SERIES of near-miss avalanches, including one at the Remarkables skifield yesterday, has southern skifields urging users to take extreme care in the mountains.

About 2500 skiers and snowboarders were at the Remarkables yesterday when an avalanche capable of burying a person slid up to 300m down the slopes yesterday.

The slide, estimated to contain about 400cu m of snow, happened shortly after 1pm and was witnessed by at least two members of the public watching from the field’s main basin.

Gary Dickerson (54) said he saw the slab of snow slide down the slope from an area called Fawlty Towers. It appeared one of two back country skiers in the area at the time might have triggered the avalanche, although neither was close as it moved down the mountain, he said. The avalanche occurred within several hundred metres of another, smaller slide in the same area on Monday, Mr Dickerson said.

‘‘We didn’t hear it but you could certainly see it. I suspect if someone was caught in it they would have certainly run the risk of being buried. I wouldn’t have wanted to be in it.’’

Mr Dickerson, who worked at the skifield for nine years and now manages the Outside Sports snow equipment workshop, said the avalanche was a timely reminder to people to be careful in back-country areas and to carry appropriate safety equipment.

The incident, one of several near misses and man-made avalanches in the region since Saturday, yesterday prompted the New Zealand Mountain Safety Council (NZMSC) to issue a high avalanche danger warning for the Queenstown and Wanaka mountains.

‘‘We don’t put these warnings out lightly,’’ Coronet Peak ski area manager Hamish McCrostie, convener of the council’s Mountain Safety Snow and Avalanche Committee, said.

Remarkables Ski Area manager Ross Lawrence said yesterday’s avalanche rolled down the slopes about 1km from the field’s main public runs.

The area, on the skifield’s boundary, was not accessible by chairlift but was used by hikers and back-country skiers, he said.

Skifield staff immediately examined the area, including checking snow stability around the avalanche site, and spoke to the two witnesses, but both were ‘‘completely confident’’ the natural slip had not caught anyone in its path, Mr Lawrence said.

‘‘It was big enough that it could bury someone, but there was noone involved.’’

NZMSC avalanche programme manager for mountain safety Steve Schreiber yesterday warned skiers and snowboarders of the avalanche risk, particularly those using the Remarkables, Treble Cone, Coronet Peak and Cardrona ski areas for quick access into back-country areas.

Heavy snowfalls and galeforce northwest winds in recent days meant there had been widespread avalanche activity, and skiers and snowboarders should avoid all back-country travel until weather and snowpack conditions stabilised, he said.

‘‘The 2007 season has been quite different from usual winters here in New Zealand. Shallow conditions as a result of little natural snow and prolonged fine, cold weather have created a very weak substrata.

‘‘This deep instability, combined with recent snowfall and extremely strong winds, has created the potential for a fatal avalanche accident,’’ he warned.

Mr McCrostie said there had been few problems at Coronet Peak, but the snow pack was monitored daily. Signs had been erected warning people about to enter back-country areas of the danger, and explosives were used to release the unstable snow in recent days.

Treble Cone ski area manager Jackie Van Der Voort said several areas of the field, including the Motatapu Chutes, had been closed because of the heightened avalanche risk following weekend snow.

However, while staff were constantly on alert and conducting avalanche control work, there had been no reports of avalanches on the field.

Cardrona ski patrol manager Geoff Wayatt said the field had done a lot of control using explosives in the back country and had also erected warning signs. However, he still held concerns that some people would not heed the warnings.

‘‘The worry is that they’re not all mountain people and they don’t understand the risk may stay for days, or possibly weeks.’’

State Highway 94 between Te Anau and Milford Sound was closed from the Lower Hollyford turnoff because of the high avalanche risk on Saturday afternoon. The road reopened on Sunday morning, although it later closed again for an hour.

[southernthrash]

as an aside, with all the talk of snowdepths, does anyone know if there are any current snow depth records available for NZ alpine areas? I know it is monitored in a few different places. The only info I can find at this stage is from guiding companies, who are going with about 2m base snow depth on the main divide in areas that a snow free in summer.

EDIT: Found this: http://www.geog.canterbury.ac.nz/research/snow/ which would suggest that the amount of snow in the Main Divide/West Mckenzie region is not unusually low this year.

[melja]

I think we have had normal amounts of snow in the mountains but i think what is not normal is the speed it melts back the sun seems to have more heat in it this year maybe globle warming
We spent 7days tramping in the lake sumner area about a month ago with no snow to be seen on most tops and yet most years the snow on these tops lasts well into summer i think there is no doubt that we have had the snow this winter it just isnt sticking around- take a drive in the lewis pass and see the snow damage on the forest, it is as bad as i have seen in many years and yet most tops have none left.

I just think its more about how much snow melted this winter and not how much fell

Oh and i hope the Mackenzie is warming up gary as i spend alot of time at falstone camp,lake benmore.

[Gary Roberts]

Gary, bony is a word generally used to describe the nature of the snow, rather than the amount.

Maybe in ski-bunny lexicon, but the rest of us use it to describe the visual state of a range...when there is a lot of terrain poking through the snow skin.

And it is a lot easier to judge snow cover and quantity from the air than from the valleys below, though still not easy. Unless you've got binoculars, then it's a cinch.

It's even easier to judge the amounts of snow on the ground when you're walking around in it all bloody day! Unlike you, I'm right here on the spot, driving and trudging into, up and over mountains. It's what I do for a living and a hobby. I can assure you that compared to previous years there is not much snow on the mountains, be they eastern ranges or the main Divide.

[southernthrash]

Maybe in ski-bunny lexicon, but the rest of us use it to describe the visual state of a range...when there is a lot of terrain poking through the snow skin.

which is more often than not a product of the wind.

It's even easier to judge the amounts of snow on the ground when you're walking around in it all bloody day! Unlike you, I'm right here on the spot, driving and trudging into, up and over mountains. It's what I do for a living and a hobby. I can assure you that compared to previous years there is not much snow on the mountains, be they eastern ranges or the main Divide.

I do the same, only a bit further south than you. Obviously a bit of spatial variability eh? Then again all the data available on the web indicates a very normal amount of snow on the main divide right now.

[Gary Roberts]

which is more often than not a product of the wind.

The wind blows existing snow away. Little or no new snow falls to replace it. Hence the "bonyness".

I do the same, only a bit further south than you.

Which is why you should confine your comments to the southern regions, just as I keep mine to conditions in the Mackenzie and adjacent parts of the Divide.

Then again all the data available on the web indicates a very normal amount of snow on the main divide right now.

No, it doesn't. You misinterpret the data to suit your own agenda. I don't have an agenda. I just report what I see in the places I live and visit. I see very little snow in those areas this year, even less than previous years.

If you choose to believe that the ski industry is having a bumper year, and will continue to have them, good for you, however it doesn't and won't alter the facts, no matter how much you hope it will.

And remember you aren't just trying to convince yourself and me...this forum is a weather forum, not a ski forum and as such is full of very experienced and weather-savvy people who don't really care about our opinions, when they can check the data for themselves.

So you go on believing that we're all wading through "wicked powder" and I'll continue to post what I'm seeing around me. Everybody else will make up their own minds based on the facts.

[southernthrash]

The wind blows existing snow away. Little or no new snow falls to replace it. Hence the "bonyness".

The wind blows snow from ridges to gullies. This always happens, even when there is a lot of snow. This is what I have been trying to point out to you for a while. You make it sound like boniness is due to little snow falling, that is not ture. Even last year following the huge snowfalls in canterbury there were bare ridges all over the place.

Which is why you should confine your comments to the southern regions, just as I keep mine to conditions in the Mackenzie and adjacent parts of the Divide.

The whole reason this debate started was because you were talking about conditions across the South Island, rather than what you have directly observed.

No, it doesn't. You misinterpret the data to suit your own agenda. I don't have an agenda. I just report what I see in the places I live and visit. I see very little snow in those areas this year, even less than previous years.

Yes, it does. What data have you looked at? The link I posted earlier in the thread?

If you choose to believe that the ski industry is having a bumper year, and will continue to have them, good for you, however it doesn't and won't alter the facts, no matter how much you hope it will.

The truth is, in terms of snow cover and visitor numbers to date, the Southern Lakes are having a very good year. The Queenstown fields are experiencing significantly higher numbers of visitors than last year. Not really relevant here, but you asked for it.

And remember you aren't just trying to convince yourself and me...this forum is a weather forum, not a ski forum and as such is full of very experienced and weather-savvy people who don't really care about our opinions, when they can check the data for themselves.

You don't seem to be all that savvy and experienced with weather processes yourself. I'm not stating opinion. My personal opinion differs somewhat from what is being discussed here.

So you go on believing that we're all wading through "wicked powder" and I'll continue to post what I'm seeing around me. Everybody else will make up their own minds based on the facts.

Well I'll continue to wade through wicked powder out to backbowls at coronet, or the chutes at remarks, where I have on more than one occasion found myself thigh deep so far this year, and report that as my own observation of what I'm seeing around me. If you don't like the fact that by definition the McKenzie is boring as far as weather goes, and that there is much more snow to the south of where you are, well that's fine by me. But there's no sue comparing apples with oranges. And get you head around the spatial variability occurring in NZ (and the McKenzie), I could point you in the direction of a good paper, if you so desire?

[Gary Roberts]

southernthrash I'm not going to rebutt your claims point-by-point any more as it just wastes visual space and I'm sure it's annoying and boring other members.

The ranges around here (including Alpine ones) are bony because there has been little snow and much has melted or been blown away. I can't help it if you don't want to hear that.

I do not consider myself to be a meteorologist. I just report conditions as I see and experience them. I'm not looking for, or hoping to find, any particular condition. I just report what I see. Again, if that annoys you because I'm not saying what a bunch of ooncers want to hear, tough luck.

However be aware that there are several real meteorologists hanging around here.

I don't care what the conditions are like where you claim to be. Outside the NI, one skifield has already closed early, several have opened late, and all are operating mostly on manmade snow. Typically the operators are talking-up the conditions (and always take their readings from the deepest snow they can find), whereas the skiers I know and have encountered are all admitting that the skiing is "less than ideal", and they are people who've been to, or passed through from, southern skifields.

Considering it's already past the middle of August (which is the much-vaunted "snow season") the reports from this site make sobering reading: http://www.snowreports.co.nz/

Maybe you should head north. It looks pretty rad and wicked up there, dude.

[southernthrash]

I don't care what the conditions are like where you claim to be. Outside the NI, one skifield has already closed early, several have opened late, and all are operating mostly on manmade snow. Typically the operators are talking-up the conditions (and always take their readings from the deepest snow they can find), whereas the skiers I know and have encountered are all admitting that the skiing is "less than ideal", and they are people who've been to, or passed through from, southern skifields.

Considering it's already past the middle of August (which is the much-vaunted "snow season") the reports from this site make sobering reading: http://www.snowreports.co.nz/

Maybe you should head north. It looks pretty rad and wicked up there, dude.

You are proving your ignorance in that statement. You actually have no idea of the conditions. No skifields have closed early, Temple Basin has decided not to open, but that is not solely due to snow conditions, as I have already said. Skifields in NZ always open late, that's reality. Once again, you are discussing conditions you have not experienced, and in the process are making very incorrect statements. It may interest you to know, that most NZ skifields do not report their max depth in snow reports (and if they do they report max and min depths) but tend to report averages. Incidentally, snowreports.co.nz, the site you pointed me to, reports the lowest depth of several that skifield operators provide each day.

It also may interest you to know, that by and large Ruapehu is having a pretty terrible season, with very limited areas of good snow, at high elevation, Turoa and Whakapapa are both completely snowless at their base areas.

here are some pictures from coronet peak, all of areas below 1600m, which are not supplemented by snowmaking, and many of which recieve a fair bit of sun during the day too.





how about some of remarkables?




No snow at all, and a terrible season indeed.

[Willoughby]

This is going around in circles, and I think points have been taken by now, so i'm locking this thread.