Hotter wetter drier frost free.

[Myself]

There is quite a high probability La Nina will be gone by spring.

I hope so. I'm not really a La Nina fan

JohnGaul
NZTS

I suppose if the phase of the PDO is right then we'd all better get used to them.
...
..
.
Hurrah!

[Gary Roberts]

Rain, rain and more rain! When will it ever end?

Warm temperatures and constant warm drizzle: North islanders would feel right at home here!

RIP, traditional High Country winters.

It's great for the lakes, though!

[Myself]

RIP, traditional High Country winters.

Oh come on, you can't rule anything out
What about last July's freeze-up? Did you fare well or was that more of a Central Otago event?

[southernthrash]

Gary sees only what he wants to see. Oblivious to fresh snow on the Mt Cook range and surrounds (which has been fairly regular).

As an aside, what is a traditional high country winter? The snowline through winter is recognised as anywhere from 1000-1500 m, depending on a number of factors, anything outside of this is usually considered unusual. That's nothing new. Not to mention the fact he lives in one of the driest and most sheltered parts of the country (which he should recognise, its a prereq for an observatory). I'm beginning to think Gary is a bit of an idiot based on some of the PM's I've received. At least, he doesn't understand weather forecasting, and tends to have high expectations and a ridiculous level of cynicism. As well as little understanding of how his local hydro scheme operates, both climatically and hydrologcially.

[Gary Roberts]

Oh come on, you can't rule anything out

True, but the odds are against anything exciting and certainly against a prolonged winter event.

What about last July's freeze-up? Did you fare well or was that more of a Central Otago event?

North Otago had extended periods of fog and rime ice/hoar frosts, but temperatures weren't dramatic in any way, while snowfall was negligible.

June 2006 saw a moderate amount of snowfall, which is becoming so rare that those with the memory (and IQ) of a severely retarded gnat breathlessly claimed it was a "One in sixty year event!" Temperatures reached a low of -14 °C but were significantly higher on either side of that one coldish day.

There was very little snow in the three years prior to June 12th 2006 and temperatures were positively tropical. So far there's no reason to foresee anything but more increasing average temperatures and reducing snowfall in 2008.

Snow cultists believe that if we tell ourselves that it's going to snow in great quantities - indeed, that it has and is snowing-up large - then it'll come true and they can go oonce-oonce-oonce to their little hearts content. Alas, the harsh reality tends to intrude.

I can live with the prospect of rain instead of snow so long as the number of clear nights aren't drastically reduced!

[southernthrash]

Then what on earth basis do you have for classifying a traditional high country winter? It would seem that the events gary whines about are exceptions to the rule.

If he spent time in the mountains (aside from one particular peak, which is hugely affected by rain shadow and NW winds) then he might gain a proper appreciation of alpine snowfall patterns. Until such a time, I think he needs to cut the crap.

By the way, Gary, the worst affected area was east Central Otago. I'm pretty sure there was no hoar frost in Oamaru last year... maybe Kurow?

2004 was a massive year for alpine snowfall, just because it's not falling to the valley floor, doesn't mean its not falling.

So far there's no reason to foresee anything but more increasing average temperatures and reducing snowfall in 2008.

For someone, supposedly, of science, what an idiotic statement.

[Andrew Massie]

Yea pretty much, if increased precipitation comes as snow during the accumulation season (some say this is already happening) then that is great. But if more rain falls in the winter (instead of snow), or net snowfall decreases, then that is bad.

Would make for some interesting modelling investigations actually, ie the effects of increased snowfall above say 2500 metre, and increased rainfall below that level, to see what the net effects would be.

I'd like to hear Meridian or Contact Energy's take on that.. Find it very hard to believe.

[southernthrash]

Howso? These are the reasons our alpine glaciers are getting a lot of research attention

[TonyT]

Folks - you are making it very hard for us to moderate this thread. Please stay on topic, which is possible future climates based on the recently released NIWA projections widely reported in the local media. Discussion of day to day weather doesnt belong in this thread (I have moved a lot of posts into the May or June threads which exist for that purpose). Discussion of the likely trends in the next few months doesnt really belong here either, but I havent moved it out (yet) because some of the comments are intertwined with comment on the longer term trend and I dont want to start breaking up individual posts. Please try to stay on topic.

@Gary and Southernthrash - I know from experience that you are both capable of rational discussion, so please resist the temptation to bait each other - from here on the moderators will probably start deleting posts which contain comments which we consider inflammatory, no matter what other merits there are in them. (And I would add, both of you have much of genuine relevance to contribute to this thread). Please give us all a break and cut the sniping out.

[Gary Roberts]

Recent climate/weather trends in the Mackenzie, including the Main Divide, lend credence to NIWA's predictions of a future which is warmer, with even less snowfall and more rain.

Qualified and experienced hydrologists, climatologists and meteorologists in the employ of large corporations I'm familar with also subscribe to the NIWA predictions.

These predictions are, of course, based upon hard science, as opposed to faith, hope and prayer and the people making the predictions are seasoned pros, not amateurs and undergrads like the rest of us.

After years of living and working in many of the places being discussed, I've seen the evidence of GCC at work for myself and it's unmistakable: the longterm temperature trend is upwards, while the snowfall rate and quantity is downwards.

It is of course possible that the highly trained and experienced professional weatherologists and their predictions may be in error, but I know where my bettin' money is going.

[Vertigo]

well put gary.

i dont pretend to know enough about climate trends to make bold declarations based on no evidence, rather, i listen to impartial scientists presenting peer-reviewed papers. i define impartial as being without bias, be it monetary incentive or political gain. science without any agenda except the wellfare of the global eco system - including humans.

when you look at things through that lens, it suddenly stops being about people pushing their points of view, and starts being about whats best for everyone.

[southernthrash]

I don't disagree with Gary's views on future climates.

I don't know where he gets his idea about future climate being good for the Hydro schemes from though, most who are working on it are very worried about the long term viability of Hydro, in the Waitaki especially, under such conditions. There's a lot more to it than simple climatology and hydrology too, a lot of it relates to geomorphic changes, with changes in fluvial regimes and sediment distribution all affecting discharge volumes and patterns.

A major concern is the rapid disappearance of the major water sources for the Hydro schemes, the glaciers and snowfields, and the down stream effects. This is what makes current glaciologic, geomorphic and hydrologic work in the Alps so important right now, as well as paleoclimate reconstruction.

[southernthrash]

Vertigo, it is almost impossible to find science without bias, even those scientists whose only agenda is the welfare of the global eco system can be guilty, they are often amongst the alarmists. Bias should always be minimised, but will never be absent, due to human nature and the ultimate subjectivity of anything considered by a single person. This is why it is important to always consult multiple sources, it sounds like you recognise this importance.