metservice.....what service?

[bunters]

Hi,

I have been following the weather in this country closely for many years, over the past year in particular I have noted that metservice forecasts are often far from reality. Although there own site statistcis will disagree with this.

the last weather bomb that hit was well identified by many other weather prediction services around the country early in the week, however metservice failed to identify the serverity of it untill friday. Civil defence warnings were delayed and as a result many people did not have time to take precautions.

Is metservice up to the job?

are there other weather models being used around the world that are more sophisticated than what metservice is using?

Is met service going to acknowledge that the country is going to be hit by another bomb on wednesday? or will they tell us that on tuesday evening?

[Inny Binny]

What? M/S recognised the severity of it FAR before Friday. Severe Weather Warnings only go out 24 hrs beforehand, but they had the Wacth out 48-72 hrs beforehand I think and were worreid about it for quite a while.

So I'm sorry, but that's utter rubbish.

[Myself]

Hi,

I have been following the weather in this country closely for many years, over the past year in particular I have noted that metservice forecasts are often far from reality. Although there own site statistcis will disagree with this.

the last weather bomb that hit was well identified by many other weather prediction services around the country early in the week, however metservice failed to identify the serverity of it untill friday. Civil defence warnings were delayed and as a result many people did not have time to take precautions.

Is metservice up to the job?

are there other weather models being used around the world that are more sophisticated than what metservice is using?

Is met service going to acknowledge that the country is going to be hit by another bomb on wednesday? or will they tell us that on tuesday evening?

Hi,

Can't speak for them but I think you are going over the top.

1) Every country in the developed world has weather enthusiasts. And plenty of them think their national forecasting agency is crap. Complaints like this are pretty standard to say the least. What you are saying could have a few words changed here and there, and bang, you're transformed into a whinger from, say, Britain.
Personally I think we are lucky to have the MetService as opposed to some horrendous monolithic government department like the UK Met Office (which is part of the Ministry of Defence for God's sake!), who for many years held back far more information from the general public than MetService currently do.

2) "I have been following the weather in this country closely for many years, over the past year in particular I have noted that metservice forecasts are often far from reality. "

That's because you are a human and human's have shoddy memories for things like this. You also have an agenda and are biased, which makes your statement on this somewhat pointless.


3) The Met Service had been monitoring it all week. Put it this way: If they had put out major warnings and the storm had turned out to be nothing special, you would have been on here moaning about them anyway. This happened with a big UK storm in their last winter, it was a beast in terms of depth, the Met Office had big warnings out and some people got almost nothing. And cue the whingers....

4) The Met Service uses models from all around the world, they have access to information that we do not. For example, the full ECMWF outputs.
There is no synoptic scale model output from New Zealand, despite Philip Duncan's waffle about "weather computers in the capital".



In summary, do some proper research and then re-assess your views.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Sorry, but the metservice did give good warnings in advance. The metservice take a conserative approach, they dont get too carried away too early as the systems can always change. The warnings were still put out a good 24 hours before hand and they had issued a number of articles and reports explaining that a very big storm was approaching. The only thing that the metservice could look to improve on is upgrading the site in some way that makes it 100 precent accessible when its overloading. I know its hard but it is crucial to be able to get on it.

They have commented on the next weather bomb in their "severe weather outlook" so a good 3 or 4 days out! There are a number of features on the website that show what is coming, 7 day forecast maps give you a good idea too.

I agree inny binny! They always have severe weather outlook or severe weather watch well in advance! I believe they were up to the job. Its not an easy job, they cop a lot of critism. It can get frustrating from a weather nuts point of view, i should know lol. I hate it when they say snow to sea level and then the next thing you hear snow to 400m. However, thats just the nature of the weather, it changes all the time. You just gotta guess, the closer it gets the more accurate it becomes and hence their weather watches were upgraded to weather warnings. Thats what i believe anyways. Tell me if im wrong.

[Cook]

Hi,

I have been following the weather in this country closely for many years, over the past year in particular I have noted that metservice forecasts are often far from reality. Although there own site statistcis will disagree with this.

the last weather bomb that hit was well identified by many other weather prediction services around the country early in the week, however metservice failed to identify the serverity of it untill friday. Civil defence warnings were delayed and as a result many people did not have time to take precautions.

Is metservice up to the job?

are there other weather models being used around the world that are more sophisticated than what metservice is using?

Is met service going to acknowledge that the country is going to be hit by another bomb on wednesday? or will they tell us that on tuesday evening?

1. "the last weather bomb that hit was well identified by many other weather prediction services around the country early in the week" "What weather prediction services around the country are that? Can I subscribe to regular forecasts from them? Are they well informed, or are they amateurs who make sensational press releases when the whim strikes them?

2. "Civil defence warnings were delayed" Exactly what civil defense warnings were delayed?

3. "many people did not have time to take precautions." What people?

I ask these questions because you make major allegations. Surely you will be happy to back them up if you want to be taken seriously.

You asked: "are there other weather models being used around the world that are more sophisticated than what metservice is using? "
No, there are not. The Metservice has access to and uses the most sophisticated models. The problem is that these are just models and they are often incorrect with respect to weather a few days ahead, particularly severe weather. The Metservice has procedures in place to evaluate and compare the output from these models. Only once this has been done is a forecast issued. If the Metservice were to take model output at face value and cry wolf every time one of the models indicates a severe storm many days in advance, then people would soon stop taking notice of weather warnings because they would inevitably be very unreliable.

"Is met service going to acknowledge that the country is going to be hit by another bomb on wednesday? or will they tell us that on tuesday evening?"

Current regional forecasts for Northland, issued by the Metservice:
Tue 29
Periods of rain, with some heavy falls developing. Northeasterlies becoming strong and gusty.

Wed 30
Rain, sometimes heavy, becoming squally showers. Strong gusty northeasterlies tending northwest and may rise to gale in exposed places.

Thu 31
Squally showers, heavy at times. Northwesterlies, gale in exposed places, easing a little.

[Manukau heads obs]

I think the met service did a excellent job with this latest weather event.
keep up the good work guys/gals
(in contrast to Bunters I think the met service have been getting better and better over the years)
(which is not easy thing as they have been providing more and more information (I longer term forecasts (e.g marine forecasts out for longer now, etc)

[Michael]

On 1ZB they been going on about it virtually all week.

[spwill]

bunters wrote

I have been following the weather in this country closely for many years

Clearly not.

[TonyT]

Can I subscribe to regular forecasts from them? Are they well informed, or are they amateurs who make sensational press releases when the whim strikes them?

Yes, yes, and no.

[Manukau heads obs]

is Bunters you know who maybe?

[Janos]

Nothing on the internet is private...i am certain there is a savvy IT guy/girl who can check various ip addresses etc.etc.

[NZstorm]

Someone who puts a first post up like that is not worth taking seriously.

[RWood]

This post by "bunter" is a load of offensive tripe.

[Janos]

Joined: Sun 27/07/2008 16:07
Possibly says it all.

[Vertigo]

bunters, long term forecasts are notoriously difficult to predict accurately, which is why metservice only puts out definite warnings and watches a day or two in advance. however, they do have their model runs online for anyone to view and make their own forecasts, and you are more than welcome to do so.

[Manukau heads obs]

surprised a post like this has not been removed by the moderators
it serves no purpose
and the author hides away anonimous

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

surprised a post like this has not been removed by the moderators
it serves no purpose
and the author hides away anonimous

I was thinking about it, Brian, but I thought I would wait to see what the other moderators might have to say about it?

JohnGaul
NZTS

[03Stormchaser]

surprised a post like this has not been removed by the moderators
it serves no purpose
and the author hides away anonimous

I was thinking about it, Brian, but I thought I would wait to see what the other moderators might have to say about it?

JohnGaul
NZTS

I dont see the need to carry on this thread, looks as if it was posted by a lurker with a grudge toward metservice, nothing constructive toward this forum.