A Neutral El Nino ??

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
Locked
alpnz-wx
Posts: 3
Joined: Sun 04/11/2007 21:40
Location: Clyde, Central Otago, New Zealand
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

A Neutral El Nino ??

Unread post by alpnz-wx »

Yesterdays ODT reports the Met Service is forecasting a neutral El Nino seasonal outlook. (For Spring)
Next sentence suggests Increased variability, possible widening of extremes of weather is expected as the country moves into neutral El Nino Southern Oscillations. :-S , yup that sounds pretty neutral to me ... :smile:
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i think the story is that with no guiding hand, i.e no la nina or el nino, the climate will swing from being one to then being like the other,and back again, over weeks at a time, sort of thing
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 17290
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1287 times
Been thanked: 999 times

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Latest SOI (Oct 2nd)from the BOM shows a La Nina trend?

JohnGaul
NZTS
JohnGaul
NZThS
Myself
Posts: 396
Joined: Wed 20/02/2008 21:55
Location: Welly
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Unread post by Myself »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Latest SOI (Oct 2nd)from the BOM shows a La Nina trend?

JohnGaul
NZTS
My understanding is that the SOI may be showing a slight La Nina trend but there's no SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific to support a full La Nina.
I think there should be a newer BoM ENSO update than that also.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the western pacific, and the coral sea, are warmer than normal, at the moment
(might be a good summer for TC's ! :wave: :mrgreen: )
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
RWood
Posts: 3745
Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
Location: Wellington
Has thanked: 188 times
Been thanked: 123 times

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Unread post by RWood »

Go to: enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (application_pdf Object)

[Can't paste this and it may not be quite accurate, but you can get there by going to the NOAA pages].

Full description and analysis of current state and outlooks. It is updated weekly.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 17290
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1287 times
Been thanked: 999 times

Re: A Neutral El Nino ??

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Latest SOI from BOM show a very definate La Nina trend :?: 8) :-w

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml

JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
NZThS
Locked