Winter Outlook Discussion (2009)
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These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- Nev
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Re: General June Weather
An example of how climate forecasts can be wrong with the best information availibledon't think we're talking about NIWA [or Blue Skies].
- TonyT
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Re: General June Weather
Yes, we did say it would be a colder than normal autumn/winter. And I cant see that changing in the next month or two, but maybe in spring. Some climate forecasts can be correct with the right information Spwill...j--me--h wrote:cold temps of late... coldest in a number of years id say... [someone] said it would be the coldest winter in a long time. Thoughts anyone?
P.S im only stirring ... in one of those moods i suppose.
[Edited by Nev: Sorry j--me--h, but think you might've been treading forum eggshells there]
And RWood, the RSS and UAH global mean temperature values for May are both well down nearer the long term compared with recent months, so its not just New Zealand which has had a colder May.
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Re: General June Weather
How soon can one get access to those numbers TonyT? I wait for the NOAA reports, but they don't appear until about the 15th of the following month.
- NZstorm
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Re: General June Weather
In North America they have had a cooler than normal spring and start to summer. I havn't seen figures but I have noticed a bit of forum chatter on how cold its been in California this spring for instance. And I had noticed the midwest plains looked cool from what they normally get at this time of year.
- TonyT
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Re: General June Weather
They seem to pop up on a number of climate blogs around the 5th of the month. The one I usually find them on is Wattsupwiththat which has a handy graph as well.RWood wrote:How soon can one get access to those numbers TonyT? I wait for the NOAA reports, but they don't appear until about the 15th of the following month.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/05/r ... ril-value/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/05/u ... near-zero/
You can also go to the source, for example the RSS site has a nice map showing monthly anomalies here:
http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_month ... hannel=tlt
For example the May map shows the colder conditions around New Zealand and Australia, also in Northern and Central Europe, Canada, Africa etc, but warmer than normal over the western USA, east Asia, and Western Europe.
However, it is harder to find the raw numbers than the maps and graphs.
As regards the solar minimum, there are considerable differences in the solar output depending on the wavelength. For IR energy the reduction in the current solar minimum is well less than 1%, which would not (probably) be having a major effect on global heating. However, I saw a reference to some interesting research recently concerning UV and cloud condensation nuclei. The UV levels are down around 6% at present I believe, and there was a theory that this could affect the global cloudiness, as there may be a greater influence of airborne biological matter (spores etc) as cloud condensation nuclei than previously thought. UV radiation tends to kill these off, so the theory is that if there is less UV there could be more condensation nuclei, and therefore more clouds, leading to cooler surface temperatures. Interesting, but still theoretical.
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- TonyT
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Re: General June Weather
Apologies, this is getting well off topic now. See what you've done j--me--h?
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Re: General June Weather
opened a big can of worms here haven't i? Imagine the debate if it was still the original post. But im finding it all very interesting and learning. Great links there Tony. Will bookmark those.
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Re: General June Weather
Thanks TonyT.
And then there's the issue of a likely El Nino developing, just to add more to the recipe...
And then there's the issue of a likely El Nino developing, just to add more to the recipe...
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Re: General June Weather
the lower UV leading to more cloud has not occured in this part of the world though?
(i.e sunshine hours have been above normal )
the below normal sea surface temperatures are going to be here for a while I would say
takes alot of above temperatures to shift that back up
(i.e sunshine hours have been above normal )
the below normal sea surface temperatures are going to be here for a while I would say
takes alot of above temperatures to shift that back up
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Re: General June Weather
yes. The latest BOM shows a drop to the negative.
JohnGaul
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- TonyT
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Re: General June Weather
We're talking 6% reduction globally before it hits the top of the atmosphere. And the below normal SSTs may be due to increased cloudiness over the oceans around NZ (speculation on my part).Manukau heads observer wrote:the lower UV leading to more cloud has not occured in this part of the world though?
(i.e sunshine hours have been above normal )