Winter Outlook Discussion (2009)

[Nev]

Um... don't think we're talking about NIWA [or Blue Skies].

[spwill]

don't think we're talking about NIWA [or Blue Skies].

An example of how climate forecasts can be wrong with the best information availible

[TonyT]

cold temps of late... coldest in a number of years id say... [someone] said it would be the coldest winter in a long time. Thoughts anyone?

P.S im only stirring ... in one of those moods i suppose.

[Edited by Nev: Sorry j--me--h, but think you might've been treading forum eggshells there]

Yes, we did say it would be a colder than normal autumn/winter. And I cant see that changing in the next month or two, but maybe in spring. Some climate forecasts can be correct with the right information Spwill...

And RWood, the RSS and UAH global mean temperature values for May are both well down nearer the long term compared with recent months, so its not just New Zealand which has had a colder May.

[Manukau heads obs]

maybe the current solar minimum is having an effect?

[RWood]

How soon can one get access to those numbers TonyT? I wait for the NOAA reports, but they don't appear until about the 15th of the following month.

[NZstorm]

In North America they have had a cooler than normal spring and start to summer. I havn't seen figures but I have noticed a bit of forum chatter on how cold its been in California this spring for instance. And I had noticed the midwest plains looked cool from what they normally get at this time of year.

[TonyT]

How soon can one get access to those numbers TonyT? I wait for the NOAA reports, but they don't appear until about the 15th of the following month.

They seem to pop up on a number of climate blogs around the 5th of the month. The one I usually find them on is Wattsupwiththat which has a handy graph as well.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/05/r ... ril-value/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/05/u ... near-zero/

You can also go to the source, for example the RSS site has a nice map showing monthly anomalies here:

http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_month ... hannel=tlt

ch_tlt_2009_05_anom_v03_2.png

For example the May map shows the colder conditions around New Zealand and Australia, also in Northern and Central Europe, Canada, Africa etc, but warmer than normal over the western USA, east Asia, and Western Europe.

However, it is harder to find the raw numbers than the maps and graphs.

As regards the solar minimum, there are considerable differences in the solar output depending on the wavelength. For IR energy the reduction in the current solar minimum is well less than 1%, which would not (probably) be having a major effect on global heating. However, I saw a reference to some interesting research recently concerning UV and cloud condensation nuclei. The UV levels are down around 6% at present I believe, and there was a theory that this could affect the global cloudiness, as there may be a greater influence of airborne biological matter (spores etc) as cloud condensation nuclei than previously thought. UV radiation tends to kill these off, so the theory is that if there is less UV there could be more condensation nuclei, and therefore more clouds, leading to cooler surface temperatures. Interesting, but still theoretical.

[TonyT]

Apologies, this is getting well off topic now. See what you've done j--me--h?

[jamie]

opened a big can of worms here haven't i? Imagine the debate if it was still the original post. But im finding it all very interesting and learning. Great links there Tony. Will bookmark those.

[RWood]

Thanks TonyT.

And then there's the issue of a likely El Nino developing, just to add more to the recipe...

[Manukau heads obs]

the lower UV leading to more cloud has not occured in this part of the world though?
(i.e sunshine hours have been above normal )

the below normal sea surface temperatures are going to be here for a while I would say
takes alot of above temperatures to shift that back up

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

yes. The latest BOM shows a drop to the negative.

JohnGaul
NZThS

[TonyT]

the lower UV leading to more cloud has not occured in this part of the world though?
(i.e sunshine hours have been above normal )

We're talking 6% reduction globally before it hits the top of the atmosphere. And the below normal SSTs may be due to increased cloudiness over the oceans around NZ (speculation on my part).