Heavy snow likely with the remaining moisture levels in the fairly high end.
East of the South Island bearing the brunt of some fairly cold showers.
Could amount to a day off work at least.
![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_wink.gif)
Yeah,even i'm getting fed up with the error margins on these models,latest suggests it has now been pushed out till Sunday, and a very cold one at that ,but not thinking it might happen now.sentastorm wrote:Every possible snow event has turned out to be a fizzer. These two events on Wednesday 15th July and Saturday 17th the same , cold grey some showers for Christchurch.
I have given up the idea of snow for christchurch this winter.
Sorry christchurch it doesn't seem to be happening.![]()
Any thoughts on this from the experts
This station http://www.croxford.co.nz/weather.html, halfway between Wanaka and Lake Hawea recorded -8°C this morning!Bitterly cold this morning for the SI, Qtwn was -5C at 9am, Timaru -3.
This will definately help your thickness... querysoutherly-hunter wrote:Sorry to appear a weather-dumb Mark but any chance you could explain these thickness values? Is it predicting the thickness of the cloud?
I wouldn't fret too much about them anyway, it deals with such a fat layer of air (the 1000-500 anyway) that it misses the subtleties. Good for a general overview but little more.southerly-hunter wrote:Sorry to appear a weather-dumb Mark but any chance you could explain these thickness values? Is it predicting the thickness of the cloud?
For snow to sea level we are looking for 500 thickness values of 520 or less ideally. Unfortunately the system has backed off and they have gone from 518 to 530 with moisture totals way down again. The low to the east is so deep and nasty but its way too far east atm unfortunately. The centre has air pressure of 948hpa!southerly-hunter wrote:Sorry to appear a weather-dumb Mark but any chance you could explain these thickness values? Is it predicting the thickness of the cloud?
I guess everyone has noticed the massive trough lying just east of NZ for much of the last 6 weeks, downstream of the persistent high pressure around Macquarie Is. If this long wave feature had been sitting some 10 deg longitude further west the Sth Island would have copped some very stormy conditions (far more severe than the odd little flick such as we've had). The position of slow moving upper air troughs/ridges pairs play such a big role in surface conditions it's a shame long range forecast is so dependent on less direct influences e.g. la nina/el nino, SOI index, etc.The pattern this winter has been for a lot of Ridging onto the South Island with the cold air. Some troughing with cold air for the SI later in the week perhaps.