Next Week-End (14-15th August)

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 08/08/2004 21:26

The models seem to have next WE looking interesting especially from Sunday (according to ECMWF

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Sun 08/08/2004 21:47

Yes it looks interesting. As I mentioned in another post, the predicted scenarios involve a big trough followed by a very cold southerly or southwesterly flow, but with complications like lows forming on the trough in some of the models. Like I said, it's a long way out yet, but with the models agreeing on something significant, it'll be worth watching what unfolds.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Mon 09/08/2004 00:51

It'll be interesting to see what happens. As far as everybody down here is concerned, it's spring already. Winter was a complete non-event. We've had one day of snowfall at town level (440m), back in mid-June, and some desultory falls on the mountains (but almost none in the past couple of weeks), and the temperature has been climbing steadily with each passing day. Heck, it felt like SPRING rain this weekend, not winter dampness!

Manukau heads obs · Mon 09/08/2004 06:05

still very much winter weather for us in the upper north island.
the mountains must be blocking the weather for you Gary

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 09/08/2004 06:38

still very much winter weather for us in the upper north island.

I agree, and winter is a long way from being over for NZ.

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Mon 09/08/2004 07:29

Yep worth watching with interest, looks to be very cold

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Mon 09/08/2004 10:15

Andy wrote:Yep worth watching with interest, looks to be very cold

I'll believe it when it happens. We have spring buds on the trees here now. There are quite a few nests being built or patched up too. My bathroom windows haven't been frozen shut for two weeks. Right now it's already 10.7Â° on a cloudless morning. It feels like November!

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 09/08/2004 10:44

It'll be interesting to see what happens. As far as everybody down here is concerned, it's spring already. Winter was a complete non-event.

For NZ as a whole, July was 0.6C below normal. Frosty nights were a big contributor to the below normal mean temperature. But one thing I've noticed so far this winter - cold oubtreaks seem to have intensified when they've reached the central North Island. A cold front and southerly may have raced up over the South island delivering only a brief period of showers and some light snow on the high country, but complications have set in further north, with a cold pool and extra trough bringing heavier snow to the central North island high country. There seem to have been several occasions this winter when snow levels have been only a little higher (or no higher at all) in the central North Island than in the far south of the South Island. I think we're seeing a minor example of that today and overnight with snow forecast down to 900 metres (Desert Road closed overnight) in the North Island, and to 700 metres in Otago and Southland. So Gary may have felt this winter has been a non-event so far in Omarama, but I don't think Waiouru residents would be saying the same thing.

That's why I feel there could possibly be a crippling snowstorm throughout the central North Island soon, should a proper polar blast hit NZ. I think the same principle is involved as in the devastating February floods - a front/trough quickly crossing the South Island, but complications setting in as it moves onto the North Island.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Mon 09/08/2004 11:08

tich wrote:
...So Gary may have felt this winter has been a non-event so far in Omarama, but I don't think Waiouru residents would be saying the same thing...

So OK, I'll qualify my previous statements by adding that Winter has been a complete non-event for the MacKenzie Basin area.

There's no "so far" about it anymore. The prevailing feeling down here is that winter is over, and any inclement weather which may pass through in the next few weeks can be regarded as a "last gasp", or an early spring event.

A few weeks ago I too would have said that it was premature to wave goodbye to winter, but not now: it has gone. It just doesn't feel like winter anymore. No getting away from the realization that spring has sprung in the high country.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 09/08/2004 22:29

...on looking at the models tonight, i think I will flag this one away.

Might be one or two wintry showers...could be thundery looking like yesterday but I don't think a cold vent will open up from the south now.
...how sad

JohnGaul
NZTS

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Tue 10/08/2004 11:17

...on looking at the models tonight, i think I will flag this one away.
Might be one or two wintry showers...could be thundery looking like yesterday but I don't think a cold vent will open up from the south now.
...how sad

The latest models now have a deep low forming to the west and then moving to the east of the North Island by early next week. How cold the air will be (and consequently how low the snow will get) looks uncertain, though it certainly looks like a cold outbreak with good snow on the high country at least, plus warm advection could eaily come into the picture. By the look of some prognoses, Monday could see severe southerly gales about Cook Strait and heavy rain from North Canterbury or Kaikoura to Hawkes Bay.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 10/08/2004 18:25

I think possible heavy snow situation for Canterbury around this weekend.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Tue 10/08/2004 18:32

YAWN

Gale South Westerlies,Lots of Showers and sunless conditions

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 11/08/2004 12:06

I think possible heavy snow situation for Canterbury around this weekend

MetService is now predicting snow to low levels in the east of the South Island for Sunday.

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Wed 11/08/2004 22:06

Looks like another decent cold change across the South Island at the weekend. It wouldn't suprise me to see snow to sea level in the south. Most of the moisture from the weekends trough though will be aimed at the North Island. Hence likely to be a good snow dump in the Tongariro region and eastern ranges.

If that happens, it'll be the first time this year I think for Otago (and Canterbury if it reaches sea-level as well), though I believe there have already been a few brief flurries in Invercargill. We're overdue for a polar southerly blast. But the North Island could be very interesting when the cold air arrives. If the tradition of cold air outbreaks intensifying as they reach the central North Island continues with this forecast system, that area could be in for a major snowstorm

- perhaps the storm I early predicted might happen this year, going on what has already happened this winter.

At least the latest models are moving away from earlier predictions of a cutoff low forming in the Tasman and moving across central NZ. Some forecast scenarios looked like a severe flood causing system for the east of the South Island on Sunday and Monday!

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 12/08/2004 23:45

Latest ECMWF looks interesting.
It looks as though it dosen't know what's going on .

Now forecasting more low pressure, coming our way,, as well to the east of NZ

No anticyclonic weather looming, sorry Michael

Low pressure means more storms

but in the case of ChCh, so far fine weather

JohnGaul
NZTS

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 13/08/2004 05:54

The winds havent been as strong as the isobars suggest mainly but then again its been more westerly than SW with only high pressure belts to the north rather than an anticyclone.