Naughty NIWA?

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fairskies
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by fairskies »

My head is way out of the sand and seeing reallity.
Looks like most of those who watched Close Up tonight have too.
Just a wee interactive survey after Gareth Morgan and Ian Wishart had their say this evening.
77% agreed with what Ian said as opposed to 23% believing what Gareth had to say.
As I said, look past the figures and see what it's REALLY all about.

Gosh. how reassuring that most of those who watched that were using their grey matter, and had their heads well out of the sand,well done common sense Kiwis.
Manukau heads obs
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

can you not see that its going to be a good thing for future generations to look after the planet more than we have been?
if the warming trend does not continue, at least we will be leaving behind a better environment for future generations by being more sustainable and energy efficient, instead of carrying on like there is no tomorrow

if the warming does continue and cause problems around the world, what are you going to say in 50 years from now?
opps, should have done something about it when we had a chance?

we can make a difference, look at how reducing CFC's is starting to make a difference to the ozone hole
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tich
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by tich »

TV polls like tonight's one are hardly useful. Who knows, maybe a group of GW deniers (Wishart's friends?) got together to block vote for Wishart's view.
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Michael
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by Michael »

I think the stupid stuff about it is its money 1st then enviroment second,surely we can all just care about the enviroment without fart tax,animals emitting and stupid trading credits.ie in the first place greed cut all the forests down now greed again prevails to try and fix a problem which is beyond our control apart from common sense enviromental concerns.Soon we will have to pay credits to breath.
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by RWood »

fairskies wrote:My head is way out of the sand and seeing reallity.
Looks like most of those who watched Close Up tonight have too.
Just a wee interactive survey after Gareth Morgan and Ian Wishart had their say this evening.
77% agreed with what Ian said as opposed to 23% believing what Gareth had to say.
As I said, look past the figures and see what it's REALLY all about.

Gosh. how reassuring that most of those who watched that were using their grey matter, and had their heads well out of the sand,well done common sense Kiwis.
Wishart is a conspiracist and other things besides that I won't repeat here, but you can find them stated on other forums. His climatological "facts" are unmitigated garbage, cut and pasted from the kind of tripe retailed by Plimer and others. Your "reality" could be badly out of focus. Go and read "hot topic" if you want to get more detail.
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

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TonyT
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by TonyT »

RWood wrote:
fairskies wrote:My head is way out of the sand and seeing reallity.
Looks like most of those who watched Close Up tonight have too.
Just a wee interactive survey after Gareth Morgan and Ian Wishart had their say this evening.
77% agreed with what Ian said as opposed to 23% believing what Gareth had to say.
As I said, look past the figures and see what it's REALLY all about.

Gosh. how reassuring that most of those who watched that were using their grey matter, and had their heads well out of the sand,well done common sense Kiwis.
Wishart is a conspiracist and other things besides that I won't repeat here, but you can find them stated on other forums. His climatological "facts" are unmitigated garbage, cut and pasted from the kind of tripe retailed by Plimer and others. Your "reality" could be badly out of focus. Go and read "hot topic" if you want to get more detail.
Lets try and keep fanaticism out of this debate can we please? Everyone else is staying calm. Lets keep it that way.

Since you have twice now recommended readers look to the Hot Topic web site for further details, for the sake of balance I will mention that there is a long series of comments on this subject on Anthony Watts website too:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/06/h ... /#comments
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

there are posters on there who are making statements like:
niwa are predicting average to below average temperatures......for the summer....and then say, global warming, what happened to that....but are missing the connection that El nino brings average to below average temperatures to most of NZ during the summer (except for eastern locations due to fohn warming if there is enough westerly flow) due to more SW winds over NZ

so when you get people on that thread making statements like that I tend to not read much more
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by TonyT »

However, its also fair to say that it can be confusing for the average man-in-the-street when they read that on the one hand temperatures in New Zealand should be cooler than normal due to El Nino, and then read in an article such as the one you reference that the world will experience one of its warmest years on record due to El Nino. Climate is a complicated and convoluted system which defies easy explanation. That doesnt mean that we should abandon the goal of trying to explain it to people though.
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Personally I'm choosing to keep my opinion on the subject to myself now.

I don't feel the debate here is unhealthy, people are being given references, if they choose to read them and learn more on the subject what can that hurt. I just hope they are remaining impartial, reading both sides of the argument and realizing that the truth likely lies somewhere in between.

Just where the subject actually sits in the greater scheme we don't know, we'll learn in time looking back at the statistics.

But, I will say, we should consider the fact that our decisions now and in the future will influence the outcome. If those pressing global warming theories are right, wouldn't you rather look back and be proud you tried to do your best than look back and think if only.

What will you tell your grandchildren?
fairskies
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by fairskies »

I have been trying to stay impartial from the day I first heard about global warming, don't get me wrong, I do care about the planet as much as the next person who cares, obvious pollution and the cutting down of trees etc, but I'm no Greenie at all.
Once I had seen and read ALL of the info I could on the matter, and saw who were the main players on the money side of things, I started to change my views, I became even more skeptical after seeing that the planet had warm periods in years gone past, way before man became industrialised and started putting things into the atmosphere.
I started to smell a Rat and after much digging I found many.
In my view and that of many more including scientists there is far too much doubt that man has caused any climate change, to see that we are going to be taxed to try and save the planet shows what it's all about really.
No I'm no expert on the climate and I don't apologise for my views on the matter, I respect the views of people who see things the other way I just don't agree with them.
We are all going to be affected sooner financially by this before any extreme change in the climate does, just watch this space.
Thats my last word on the matter and I'm sticking to it, far too late for change now.

Take care all and all the best for Christmas and the new year.
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NZstorm
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by NZstorm »

NIWA have stated today that NZ's temperatures have risen by 0.05C this decade (2000-2008 9 years). Thats a warming rate of half a degree over a century.
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by NZstorm »

and BTW, when the numbers come in for 2009, I am predicting the 0.05C rise will have disappeared given that we have had such a cool autumn and winter and October this year.
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by RWood »

fairskies wrote:... I became even more skeptical after seeing that the planet had warm periods in years gone past, way before man became industrialised and started putting things into the atmosphere.
...
Oddly enough, this is well-known. It's also the case that various published papers have asserted that the net effect of various cyclic processes - for example the 26,000 year precession of the equinoxes - should, if there were no significant net contribution from human activity, have been cooling the planet down for quite some time now. Unfortunately, this is not the case.

My grandchildren certainly won't be thanking you, if it happens that views like yours have too big an influence on decision-making in the next couple of decades. I fervently hope that they don't.

I am leaving this forum, there are other perfectly viable alternatives.
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by RWood »

NZstorm wrote:and BTW, when the numbers come in for 2009, I am predicting the 0.05C rise will have disappeared given that we have had such a cool autumn and winter and October this year.
And would you like to comment perhaps on the decadal numbers for Australia, with about 28 times New Zealand's landmass? Just a cherry-pick response in the spirit of your comment. I can't give you them off the top of my head, but David Jones of BOM would certainly be able to do so.
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by Michael »

Theres weatherwatch :>
RWood wrote: I am leaving this forum, there are other perfectly viable alternatives.
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tgsnoopy
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

RWood wrote:I am leaving this forum, there are other perfectly viable alternatives.
That's very disappointing, I'll miss your valuable contributions.

Perhaps a more practical approach would be to just avoid this particular topic.

In any case I hope you reconsider.
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by dogmelon »

Yes, lets give up on this climate change cult. A cult has nothing to do with weather. Let us talk about weather now, thank you.
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sthguy
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by sthguy »

Letter, SST 13th Dec 2009
Climate change
Aa a professional scientist, I deplore Niwa adjusting primary data to correct for relocated sites (World, December 6).
Massaging primary data is the one big scientific "no-no"; one reports what one has.
A much greater problem in this debate is faulty logic. There is no doubt that global warming is occurring, even if some supporting data is dubious.
The logic fault lies in the assumption that the proposed reduction in carbon emissions
will rapidly reverse the net heating, as to do so the two variables must be connected by an equilibrium. There is no evidence that that exists.
We are in a warming trend. If so, efforts to simply reduce or capture; carbon will do very
little and the immense sums required would be better spent.preparing for the inevitable

Dr Ian Miller
Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I see that the British Met Office are predicting 2010 to be the globes warmest year on record, to beat 1998
due to a moderate el nino and a continuing warming trend
if that does pan out, when do you start thinking, now, this is no longer a natural variability but is instead sustained warming? (given that the last decade looks to be set to be warmest decade on record, beating the 90's)


re the massaging data where stations have moved (colder location) or where old data used non standard instrument shelters, what is so wrong with doing that? (as long as its stated that has been done and the methods used)
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by NZstorm »

Off the NIWA website under the heading 'Warmest decade on record'
The nine-year period 2000–2008 is 0.05 ºC warmer for New Zealand than the decade of the 1980s, which was the previous warmest decade.

December 2009 would have to be a record cold month (more than 2.0 ºC below normal) to move the decade of the 2000s into 2nd place behind the 1980s.
To put this into perspective, it comes down to the last few days of the decade, December 2009, to determine whether this decade ends up warmer than the 1980's!
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Re: Naughty NIWA?

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

i thought it was the 90's that was the previous warmest decade?


dec is -0.3 C colder than normal (since 2001 only) here so far
next week will be normal to above normal for here, so might end up being normal temperatures by the month end fro here
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