The Big Dry
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- tgsnoopy
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Re: The Big Dry
I got a text from a friend in Coopers Beach, he says the drought has finally broken, first decent rain in 6 months!
Lets hope they get enough to fill their tanks.
Lets hope they get enough to fill their tanks.
- DT-NZ
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Re: The Big Dry
Awesometgsnoopy wrote:I got a text from a friend in Coopers Beach, he says the drought has finally broken, first decent rain in 6 months!
Lets hope they get enough to fill their tanks.
Be great to know what the rainfall amounts were.
Lightning in NZ
The right terminology lends a hint as to the nature of the different forms.
A Vertigo Quote.
The right terminology lends a hint as to the nature of the different forms.
A Vertigo Quote.
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: The Big Dry
Few climpses of sun earlier this afternoon. Perhaps Hawkes Bay will get some decent rainfall from later tonight through tomorrow morning which will be welcome and hopefully some heavy and persistent shower lines become slow moving over the areas that need some rain. Below is the outlook for Christchurch/Canterbury from Blue Skies for the next 10-12days. No rain forecast except a 50% chance of 1-3mm on Monday with NW and warm temps dominating over the period.
Wednesday 10% Cool Light S
Thursday 10% Average Light N
Friday 10% Warm Moderate NW
Saturday 10% Warm Moderate NW
Sunday 10% Warm Moderate NW
Monday 50% 1-3 Warm/cool Moderate NW/SW
Tuesday to Thu 10% Warm Moderate NW
Friday to Sun 10% Warm Moderate NW
Wednesday 10% Cool Light S
Thursday 10% Average Light N
Friday 10% Warm Moderate NW
Saturday 10% Warm Moderate NW
Sunday 10% Warm Moderate NW
Monday 50% 1-3 Warm/cool Moderate NW/SW
Tuesday to Thu 10% Warm Moderate NW
Friday to Sun 10% Warm Moderate NW
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: The Big Dry
A long way out but there has been a trend in the GFS for low preasure to affect NZ at the end of April/ start of May, ECMWF starting to suggest this. A pattern change surely not far away.
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Re: The Big Dry
gotta happen eventually!
just hope May stays in the normal to above normal temperature range after we get some decent rain, so that pasture cover can build before winter
(and not like last may which was one of the coldest on record with early frosts etc)
just hope May stays in the normal to above normal temperature range after we get some decent rain, so that pasture cover can build before winter
(and not like last may which was one of the coldest on record with early frosts etc)
- Michael
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Re: The Big Dry
Better believe it,ECMWF had a large complex low in the tasman,revised to tasmainia,now not there apart from some trough now.
spwill wrote:A long way out but there has been a trend in the GFS for low preasure to affect NZ at the end of April/ start of May, ECMWF starting to suggest this. A pattern change surely not far away.
- DT-NZ
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Re: The Big Dry
FabulousMichael wrote:Better believe it,ECMWF had a large complex low in the tasman,revised to tasmainia,now not there apart from some trough now.spwill wrote:A long way out but there has been a trend in the GFS for low preasure to affect NZ at the end of April/ start of May, ECMWF starting to suggest this. A pattern change surely not far away.
Lightning in NZ
The right terminology lends a hint as to the nature of the different forms.
A Vertigo Quote.
The right terminology lends a hint as to the nature of the different forms.
A Vertigo Quote.
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Re: The Big Dry
hummmm
it might go back to just weak fronts and SW winds continuing next week now?
hopefully a pattern change does occur...the models cant decide at the moment.....does your head in watching them!
it might go back to just weak fronts and SW winds continuing next week now?
hopefully a pattern change does occur...the models cant decide at the moment.....does your head in watching them!
- NZstorm
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Re: The Big Dry
The front due next Monday will hopefully have some good moisture with it so a spell of rain then. The big dry of 94 didn't break untill well into June. Hopefully this one will break sooner than that.
- Michael
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Re: The Big Dry
Maybe it will be a slow "decline" into winter,without much activity from the north which has been the norm for months,the troughs will eventually become elongated more from the south which now seems to be hinting in the current pattern.
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Re: The Big Dry
Michael wrote:Maybe it will be a slow "decline" into winter,without much activity from the north which has been the norm for months,the troughs will eventually become elongated more from the south which now seems to be hinting in the current pattern.
I don't think so.
I think the hinting of the current pattern will lead to shorter troughs and more stuff coming from the north in the months ahead and SW gales will become less likely in places like Auckland and Tauranga.
JohnGaul
NZThS
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
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Re: The Big Dry
since this year seems to be like the the big dry of 93 ,also an el nino year, it might carry on like that year....which had big westerly gales in june from memory....that just kept on re building with new fronts into the western tasman from tasmania area
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Re: The Big Dry
looking more hopefull this next system early next week, and it might be an ice breaker and hearld in a new weather pattern of more active fronts from the tasman?
- NZstorm
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Re: The Big Dry
Yes, starting to look more like a mobile autumn pattern in the models. Rain is on the way!
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Re: The Big Dry
In the ONI classification system 1993 was a neutral year sandwiched between El Nino phases, though on the "nino" side of neutral. Pinatubo after-effects were still around and 1993 was much cooler (to end-April) than this year. June was exceptionally mild with persistent northwesterlies and westerlies. Enhanced frontal activity in June led Metservice (not NIWA) to make a projection that such weather would continue - however July was one of the driest and most anticyclonic winter months ever, and was followed by a rather dry August with anticyclonic southwesterlies.Manukau heads observer wrote:since this year seems to be like the the big dry of 93 ,also an el nino year, it might carry on like that year....which had big westerly gales in june from memory....that just kept on re building with new fronts into the western tasman from tasmania area
- Michael
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Re: The Big Dry
Of dry winters my memory 1985 was dry but not the N&E and more pronounced in 1989 in winter/early spring.
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Re: The Big Dry
I remember july that year....anticyclonic gloom condtions the whole month...with mild temperatures and night, cool temperatures by day
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Re: The Big Dry
Sunshine was down somewhat in some parts of the north, though not exceptionally so - 106 hours at Mangere.Manukau heads observer wrote:I remember july that year....anticyclonic gloom condtions the whole month...with mild temperatures and night, cool temperatures by day
- CHCH Weather Chaser
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Re: The Big Dry
Just been looking at the weather section in the press and although we have had 110mm here in my area of Christchurch, the actual CHCH rain measurements to date this year is only 84.4mm when the average rain to this date is normally 173mm so not even half of the average. Sunshine hours are normally at 98 hours for april to this date where it is at 124.6 hours so far so well above the average.
Outside at the moment, not a cloud in the sky and a northeast breeze sitting on 17 degrees with a dew point of 12 currently. Should be some warm days ahead with the chance of some rain at the end of the weekend/early next week.
Outside at the moment, not a cloud in the sky and a northeast breeze sitting on 17 degrees with a dew point of 12 currently. Should be some warm days ahead with the chance of some rain at the end of the weekend/early next week.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
- Nev
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- David
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Re: The Big Dry
I entered the NZ Herald rain figures in a table, so I'll post it in case people are interested:
The data goes up until 6pm 23 April.
The data goes up until 6pm 23 April.
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