Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

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Tornado Tim
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Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Adding onto what spwill has already mentioned:

Thunderstorms are very much possible on the 14th and 15th of October.

A low in the NE is set be getting more unstable as it approaches the NE of the NI.
This Low will provide a good supply of moisture from the East provided day time heating is supplied heat showers will start developing in the East and move west and possibly turn into storms.

As further daytime heating is provided a Sea breeze could be very much possible from the west coast supplying more moisture for any storms that would start to develop from the east.

As the Low starts to track southwards winds should gradually change to a SE which could make storms that developed in central to Southern Waikato track North West.....

So at the current stage heat showers/storms are possible for BOP and Eastern Waikato with a Higher risk from central to western Waikato.

Anyway Here are some GFS Charts from the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (GFS):
On the 14th of October:
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looking like the whole system is going to end up a bit further eastward now which places the upper cold pool just our east tomorrow, and leftovers of a frontal band across the North Island. I guess that will mean high cloud across the Waikato with patchy rain. Gisborne will be better placed to catch the instability.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by spwill »

Yes, colder upper air tracks further east in last two GFS runs, instability out over Gisborne tomorrow.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Michael »

As the Low starts to track southwards winds should gradually change to a SE which could make storms that developed in central to Southern Waikato track North West.....


SW shouldnt it?
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Michael wrote: SW shouldnt it?
Why would it be SW?
Have a look at SLP with the wind vectors in it, is SW in the Waikato?

Depending on cloud cover seabreezes will cause winds to change to a SE (but now that based on a outdated GFS run)
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

interestingly we did get a SW here yesterday for a while, when everyone else had SE or SSE
but that was due to a coastal lee trough here which often develops in a SE and causes the airflow to bend around
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Michael »

Wiakato SE but it enfers the wind will be pushed NW wards which goes with it southerly and ultimately SW,also its "to be" ;)
Tornado Tim wrote:
Michael wrote: SW shouldnt it?
Why would it be SW?
Have a look at SLP with the wind vectors in it, is SW in the Waikato?

Depending on cloud cover seabreezes will cause winds to change to a SE (but now that based on a outdated GFS run)
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Michael wrote:Wiakato SE but it enfers the wind will be pushed NW wards which goes with it southerly and ultimately SW,also its "to be" ;)
I was referring to Waikato SE not Auckland.

Thunderstorms now look diminished for the Waikato on the 14th now as Nzstorm and spwill mentioned. Unstable air is said to shift out the east.

The 15th of October looks like the Waikato might catch a isolated thunderstorm but then again things change.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I do have some old Mama clouds above me here
the remains of a spent on the coromandel range cloud
ie it does look unstable ish
the next shower line moving onto the coromandel looks more intense...
DP is slowly rising...really needs to get alot higher you would think for thunderstorms?
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by NZstorm »

You would have to go with a low thunderstorm risk over the Waikato for this afternoon. Looks like there will be some moisture there (dp14C) and some heating. This type of situation would be a text book thunder situation in December. Hopefully we can get this type of set up in the summer months.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Heavy Showers hitting here now :)
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yup, can see some build ups to me SE
we got to 20C here today, nice (light sea breeze)
if it was high summer it would be all on like NZStorm said!
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Temps were warm here but the sky really didnt show its blue colours, Cloudy, mostly cloudy at best :(

I wouldn't rule out thunder completely tomorrow though as the sky is set to clear up a bit more.

But it seems more a heat shower setup again for the Waikato.

BOP particularly over the Kaimais could see a t-storm though :D
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by ricky »

Looks like some lightning in the Waikato now..
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

ricky wrote:Looks like some lightning in the Waikato now..
Blow me down there is too! :D

Looks like a storm is developing by Te Awamutu atm ;)
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I see there is a shower moving north towards us....
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by spwill »

Yes, an isolated storm for central Waikato, well done Tornado Tim/NZstorm. Isolated storms also for the Gisborne/BOP Ranges this afternoon
A fine afternoon for much of Auckland.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

I am loving the look of this! Eastern Waikato and Tauranga watch out :D ;)

Might be worth a drive to Matamata or the Kaimais tomorrow!

BOP storm nuts charge camera's tonight!
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Tornado Tim wrote:I am loving the look of this! Eastern Waikato and Tauranga watch out :D ;)

Might be worth a drive to Matamata or the Kaimais tomorrow!

BOP storm nuts charge camera's tonight!
Hmm, just got home from a meeting. They are on charge.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible NI, 14th & 15th October

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Towering cumulus visible around the Kaimais but cloud cover was the main problem today.

The sun didn't come out until 3 PM! :(

I see on Radar that a line of good showers has developed just south of Lake Taupo to Ruatoria.
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