South Pacific and Coral Sea TC Season - 2009/10

[NZstorm]

TC Ului 930hpa at midnight. There was a TC a few years back that got down to 890hpa in the Coral sea.

[Michael]

The other one tomas goes xtra tropical after a couple of days and eventually move well east of the country,

[Manukau heads obs]

Ului seems to have weakened overnight, lost its eye
I thought last night that the cloud tops were not as cold on the IR
but it could be just going through an eye wall replacement
tomas is getting bigger in size overnight!

[Vertigo]

Hey Vertigo - you're the second person to say that tonight - where are you getting that info from? (re air pressure).

That would be a record breaker if correct.

been following the storm over at storm2k.org.. there is a dvorak analysis showing 897mb, and something a bit later on showing 869mb. but yes, it seems its actually sitting around 930mb for now, so perhaps that is modeled future pressure.

[Nev]

Lowest Dvorak MSLP I saw for TC Ului was 897.6 hPa at around 7pm last night, although the vis-image below at about the same time had 918 hPa. Gusts may currently be peaking at an estimated 315km/h...

[Manukau heads obs]

that video clip of flying into katrina's eye is great, top right hand corner of page
http://tropicalcyclones.blogspot.com/

[Razor]

Sad news that a life has been claimed already in Fiji

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/ar ... d=10632139
Red Cross disaster co-ordinator Vuli Gauna said Fiji had not seen a cyclone so strong get so close in at least 20 years, and people were bracing for the unexpected.

I just can't get excitied about a weather system that is doing this

Melvin said everything in Nadi had been closed and people were preparing for the worst.

"All the Fijians are kind of freaking out themselves, you can tell, cause there's no animals around," the Sydneysider said from her hotel room.

"It's unusually still. It's really weird.

"It's just overcast and kind of dark, but yesterday afternoon the sky was a really strange colour, it was like dark orange and black."

She said women were crying in the hotel lobby and everyone was "pretty scared".

"Everybody's talking about where they're going to hide when it gets here. Do we go in the bathroom? Or do we go in a cupboard?

"We're all pretty freaked out.

"There's people here who are stuck with five children under seven and they've got all their kids in one bed.

"I heard from a lot of Fijians and from the weather (forecast on the news) that they're predicting that this is the worst one Fiji's ever seen."

Tourism Fiji said Air New Zealand and V-Australia had cancelled all

[Manukau heads obs]

not good for Fiji, Tomas has swung in a bit closer, slight more of a SSW track than S track now...

[NZstorm]

NZ hearld headline 'storm fiercer than katrina'. Not sure what katrina has to do with it as it affected a major US city.

[Manukau heads obs]

I guess they are just trying to put its size/strength into perspective?

I would say interaction with land pulled it in a bit closer last night...its back on the original S track again now

[Nev]

TC Ului did temporarily weaken the previous night but reintensified yesterday with the reappearance of an eye...

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WTPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 009//

   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 13.0S 158.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 158.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 925 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) AND A 180820Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS BASED ON TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 130 KNOTS. 
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ULUI CONTINUES TO 
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE 
IN AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WEAKENS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDING IN. BY TAU 72, THE 
STR SHOULD BUILD BACK IN AND BEGIN SPEEDING UP TO THE SOUTHWEST. 
INTENSITIES ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY DECREASE WITH INCREASING VWS 
AND DECREASING OHC. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED IN THE 
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS FORECAST WAS IN AGREEMENT 
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z 
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
NNNN

-----------------

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN 
Issued at 11:11pm EST on Monday the 15th of March 2010

At 10 pm EST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 4] with central
pressure 940 hPa was located
over the north-east Coral Sea near latitude 13.1 south longitude 158.7 east,
which is about 1350 km northeast of Mackay.

The cyclone is moving west at about 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast
and is expected to remain well off the Queensland coast for at least the next
few days.  

Its longer term forecast track is still uncertain but at this stage the most
likely scenario is for Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului to remain offshore and
eventually adopt a more southerly track over the next day or so.  


IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1309 UTC 15/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.1S
Longitude: 158.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 940 hPa

REMARKS:
Analysis based on enhanced IR satellite image with embedded centre pattern.  

White surround with banding feature, gives DT of 5.5. MET and PT suggest 5.0 and
5.5 respectively. FT based on DT as it appears reasonably clear.

[Nev]

TC Tomas at Cat 4 has been passing over the smaller Lau islands to the east of Vanua Levu with gusts of up to 270km/h, mean winds of 175km/h and is said to have generated waves up to 7m high.

Story - 'Storms fiercer than Katrina batter Fiji and Solomons' - NZ Herald

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WTPS32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 009//

   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 179.7W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 179.7W. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 
A 10 NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, PHFO, KNES, AND 
ABRF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDE (STR) IN AN AREA 
OF HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 19P IS 
FORECAST TO BEGIN ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 24 WHEN IT WILL 
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL 
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 48 AND FULLY 
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72 AS TOMAS INTERACTS WITH THE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE. INTENSITIES WILL WEAKEN AS TC 19P APPROACHES THE 
WESTERLIES WITH INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING OHC. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
160300Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS 
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

------------------

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 15/0828 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 930 HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.1S 179.5W AT 150600 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH 06 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 95 KNOTS
INCREASING TO 105 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER
63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST 06 HOURS. CYCLONE LIES
OVER A WEAKLY SHEARED AND DIFFLUENT ENVIROMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD IN ALL
SECTORS. SST 30C. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHERLY BY THE DEEP NORTHERLY
LAYER MEAN FLOW.  DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE AND LG SURROUND
YIELDING DT5.5, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS. THE CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON
SOUTHERLY TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND WEAKEN SOUTH OF 20S.

[Manukau heads obs]

at the moment ECMWF has TC Ului coming ashore on the queensland coast....and so much less chance of anything left over to drift down this way to bring much needed rain...

[Manukau heads obs]

rain radar showing the eye well

[Lacertae]

Impressive image !

[Michael]

Can see easily the Easterly wind with the rain,by the time it goes SW direction the rain has been broken up by the fiji islands.

[Manukau heads obs]

there might be a blocking affect of terrain as well

[Manukau heads obs]

TC tomas seems to have slowed down...at the moment....might be because of the large rain band rotating around the NW corner slowing it down...as that comes back around the other side it will speed it up again but wobble it back SSW for a bit (its been wobbling SSE then SSW in direction)
this bigger rain band is a like a weight wobbling it around....
thats how I am seeing it when watching the animation sequence over the last day

[Richard]

What fascinated me was there appeared to be a wobble in the eye of tomas,do they really do that or is it some kind misalignment in the satellite imagery,

I do have to say thank you for your info you lot have posted over the last few days,its bin so interesting.

[Philip Duncan]

Yeah Richard they do wobble...they often zig zag and wobble and the eye falls apart and regenerates itself. Its so cool to watch.

Ive been watching the Atlantic storms for years and find them absolutely fascinating.

[NZstorm]

Looks like Fiji has dodged a bullet. Looks an active TC season this year, maybe more will develop. Season runs out to the end of April.

[Michael]

Looks like Fiji has dodged a bullet. Looks an active TC season this year, maybe more will develop. Season runs out to the end of April.

We have had them till May definitley and think June in 1989?

[DT-NZ]

Nasa Earth Observatory - Image of the Day
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=43154
larger image (9 MB)

[Nev]

Looks like JWTC has TC Ului impacting the central Qld coast around Sunday morn as a Cat 2...

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WTPS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 011    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 13.5S 157.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 157.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING IN TOWARDS AN IRREGULAR 
AND CLOUD-FILLED 20 NM EYE. RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO 
SUPPORT A 110 KNOT SYSTEM, IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF RANGE FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. 
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTH (TOWARDS A TROUGH-INDUCED 
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE) IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE 
TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
TO 36 HOURS ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TO 
THE SOUTH OF THE TC. THIS WILL ALLOW ULUI TO TURN WEST TOWARDS THE 
EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES THE DOMINANT 
STEERING FORCE. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS 
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF 20S. PRIOR TO THAT THE 
INTENSITY SHOULD HOVER AROUND 100 KNOTS WITH ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS REMAINING FAIRLY CONSTANT. THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS 
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS 2 
RUNS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT 
WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P 
(TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

----------------

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN 
Issued at 10:53pm EST on Tuesday the 16th of March 2010

At 10 pm EST Tuesday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului [Category 4] with central
pressure 938 hPa was located over the north-east Coral Sea near latitude 13.5
south longitude 157.8 east, which is about 1250 km northeast of Mackay and 1370
km east of Cooktown.

The cyclone is near stationary. 

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului poses no direct threat to the Queensland coast and
is expected to remain well offshore over the eastern Coral Sea for at least the
next few days.  

It is expected to adopt a more south to southeasterly track during the next 24
hours, which it should maintain until later in the week. The most likely
scenario then is for Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului to turn onto a more west to
southwesterly track and move closer to the Queensland coast during Friday and
Saturday.

The windy conditions over much of the Queensland east coastal waters will
continue due to the tight pressure gradient generated by a combination of a high
pressure system situated in the Tasman Sea and Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului.
Seas and swell are expected to gradually increase along much of the Queensland
east coast.


DQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1243 UTC 16/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.5S
Longitude: 157.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: north [000 deg]
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots [185 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots [260 km/h]
Central Pressure: 938 hPa

REMARKS:
Eye pattern with LG surround and DG centre and banding feature of 0.5, giving DT
of 5.5. MET and PT both suggest 5.0. Final T based on DT as it appears clear.

Expect upper steering winds associated with the system to become more northerly
during the next 24 hours as an upper trough erodes the mid level ridge to the
south. From Thursday onwards a new mid-level ridge will develop south of the
system and steering winds should become more NE'ly and turn the Tropical Cyclone
on a more westerly course.

[Nev]

TC Tomas looks to have weakened to a Cat 3 this morn...

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 16/1341 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 950 HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.2S 178.6W AT 161200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS/GOES EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 14 KNOTS. 
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 80
KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. IRREGULAR EYE PERSISTS BUT INCREASINGLY
BECOME CLOUD FILLED. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW. CYCLONE NOW ACCELERATING INTO STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE AND LG SURROUND, YIELDING DT5.0.
MET=5.0, PT=4.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS. THE
CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON ACCELERATING TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 36 HOURS. 

-------------------

WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNING NR 011    
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 179.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. TOMAS HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AS IT ROUNDS THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN PREPARATION FOR ENTRANCE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDES. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISTORTED AND ALIGNED 
NORTH-TO-SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH 
ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED, ASYMMETRIC AND 
CLOUD-FILLED AS WELL. ACCORDINGLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN 
WEAKENED TO REFLECT A DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE POLEWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH 
ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR WILL ELEVATE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DRAMATICALLY 
FALL NEAR 25S, OR TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR RAPID DECAY PRIOR TO 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ET). ET WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS 
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT UPSTREAM TROUGH. ET WITH WILL BE 
COMPLETE NEAR TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY 
UPDATES.//
NNNN