Do you believe in Global Warming

[RWood]

As far as I can tell, the following are proven:
1. Weather is random, no one can predict it. Forecasting ahead is only possible up to 7-10 days
2. There is no such thing as global climate. Then there can be no such thing as global climate change.
3. Because of their tools of trade, all meteorologists would have to be deniers. The ones who use NAM, GFS, NGM and RUC models can't justify longer range forecasting over several decades. If global climate exists, no one has stepped forth and said what that would be, given Earth's 450 billion year geological history.
5. Temperatures are only caused by the sun.. Proof - an uncapped glass vessel placed in the sun will warm, but the same vessel filled with an atmospheric gas (and in the shade) will remain at shade temperature. Therefore, gasses like carbon dioxide, methane and oxygen cannot warm unless put under pressure, but then any warming work would be done by the pressure. That the world is warming, to be acceptable, needs some time-line that all can agree on, so is it from the 1970s, from Industrialisation, from the end of the MWP, since the last ice age, or since the onset of the Quaternary Period?

Nonsense. Amazing - almost a 50-50 split in the votes. So many posters show a cavalier disregard for the dossier of events that has been built.

[Manukau heads obs]

@ Manduke
: sure, there is some chaos, but its hardly all random, it does follow principles of physics
2: what a strange statement you have made. not sure where to start
3:not sure what your point is, but continental drift over milliions of years has played a big role in changing the earth' s climate. That is a very very slow process...so not sure what your point is in relevance to 100 years?
I think you missed out 4
5: I can't follow your physics reasoning there at all , sorry. re from when is the world warming: basicly from the period of when industralisation started

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Stuff the physics, I thought that that was very good with your principles of GB.
The factors with the rummage of atmospheric science with what the experts say, not really works, in some cases and the issues that are put into place do not add head to the principles of recommendations put forth by them, but then there is the issue of that word - "money" ??? eh
Finance against gb/greenhouse gases is the issue

[Richard]

5. Temperatures are only caused by the sun.. Proof - an uncapped glass vessel placed in the sun will warm, but the same vessel filled with an atmospheric gas (and in the shade) will remain at shade temperature.

I can kind of see ya point, will the continent of Antarctica experience increased temperatures during the dark winter period, i believe not

[Snowstorm]

As far as I can tell, the following are proven:
1. Weather is random, no one can predict it. Forecasting ahead is only possible up to 7-10 days
2. There is no such thing as global climate. Then there can be no such thing as global climate change.
3. Because of their tools of trade, all meteorologists would have to be deniers. The ones who use NAM, GFS, NGM and RUC models can't justify longer range forecasting over several decades. If global climate exists, no one has stepped forth and said what that would be, given Earth's 450 billion year geological history.
5. Temperatures are only caused by the sun.. Proof - an uncapped glass vessel placed in the sun will warm, but the same vessel filled with an atmospheric gas (and in the shade) will remain at shade temperature. Therefore, gasses like carbon dioxide, methane and oxygen cannot warm unless put under pressure, but then any warming work would be done by the pressure. That the world is warming, to be acceptable, needs some time-line that all can agree on, so is it from the 1970s, from Industrialisation, from the end of the MWP, since the last ice age, or since the onset of the Quaternary Period?

Nonsense. Amazing - almost a 50-50 split in the votes. So many posters show a cavalier disregard for the dossier of events that has been built.

You would have been part of those 70 people who held hands on New Brighton beach this morning raising awareness for Climate Change RWood? Impressive stuff!

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Billions of money is poured into China for development of industrialisation despite the fact that millions of tons of that dusty coal from Stockton is exported there and to India from The mines north of Westport.

[Manukau heads obs]

will the continent of Antarctica experience increased temperatures during the dark winter period, i believe not

actually the polar regions have experience the greatest warming, like 6C

(its still cold and its still below freezing, but its warmer that it used to be)
as seen here
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/n ... m_anom.png

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, the warming of the polar areas have led to the cooling of areas in the temperance to sub temperance zones, hence severe snowstorms and freezing weather in places like North America and Britain, of recent.

[Manukau heads obs]

its not as simple as that
however
there has been more stuck weather patterns/blocking patterns
where one side of that stuck pattern will be warmer than normal, the other side colder than normal
but its longer term trends, not short term weather patterns, that is what is looked at , for the global temperature rise

[Manduke]

But how is global temperature measured, such that the process is sound enough to be repeated/validated?

[Manukau heads obs]

that link I put above, its been done by satellites since 1981
otherwise ground base stations are also used
now before you start to go on about urban heat island and stations being shifted and stations not being maintained and political bias, climate scientists, and there are ones from countries that have now political agenda or are fighting to get research grants (e.g Japan), know about all those factors and take those into account (i.e sometimes the raw data has to be changed to account for changes in station location and altitude, and that is all documented etc).

so you can either say, nope, I do not trust the scientists doing all that, as I know better from my arm chair
or you sit back and relax and go with the flow and acknowledge that its not so nieve that we can change the global climate/temperature after burning fossil fuels in a few short decades that took millions of years to be deposited

[Richard]

will the continent of Antarctica experience increased temperatures during the dark winter period, i believe not

actually the polar regions have experience the greatest warming, like 6C

(its still cold and its still below freezing, but its warmer that it used to be)
as seen here
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/n ... m_anom.png

The average June temp over the last say 50 years??

[Manukau heads obs]

is your question for Antartica ?

the thing is, a large increase in temperature in the polar regions was what the models predicted
and what it means is that the spring thaw occurs earlier and the winter freeze occurs later, for the boundary of the ice and for the thickness
and so gradually the ice gets less and less
Antartica though is surrounded by oceans and so has seasonal sea ice
its the warmer water as well that is increasing the loss of ice (the ice is thinner too)
and blue water absorbs more heat instead of white ice reflecting it

[Richard]

I understand all that Brian, its just those two main winter months that i'm curious about, are they warming i wonder?

[Manukau heads obs]

well, that link I put above shows that for May , Antartica is way above "average" for temperature
keep an eye on it for June

[Manduke]

I asked how "global" temperature is measured, and accept that satellites have done it since 1981. But I did not ask what did the measurement and for how long. I am trying to establish how the readings can be global, so that I can finally make sense of this expression global warming. Can anyone please explain? Even Brian has explained that all parts of the globe are not warming/cooling at the same rate.

[Manukau heads obs]

the satellites are able to get a complete global view , i.e both land and water

[treetop]

Global warming increases snow fall,ie more moisture in the atmosphere]. This is causing a lot of debate for those around the Gulf stream who don't understand the interconnecting dynamics of whats happening around them and the broader picture .Skiiers happy but not ice skaters!!!.Sunshine hours in the winter months have also been falling as a consequence. Of course there will be anomalies where one season will break the trend and everyone will think all is normal again.Blocking weather patterns lately is the biggest concern and this trend shows no sign of going away.

[MadDog]

Global warming increases snow fall,ie more moisture in the atmosphere]. This is causing a lot of debate for those around the Gulf stream who don't understand the interconnecting dynamics of whats happening around them and the broader picture .Skiiers happy but not ice skaters!!!.Sunshine hours in the winter months have also been falling as a consequence. Of course there will be anomalies where one season will break the trend and everyone will think all is normal again.Blocking weather patterns lately is the biggest concern and this trend shows no sign of going away.

Treetop - can you please elaborate on what you mean by blocking weather patterns? Do you mean blocking weather patterns in a general global sense, or are you referring to a specific blocking weather pattern somewhere? Can you give any examples?

[treetop]

Blocking patterns has been a growing trend in the Northern hemisphere in recent years. The jet streams that control the west to east movement of frontal and high pressure systems have at times fractured and allowed intense highs to "set up camp". We have seen snow in Egypt and parts of upper Cambodia, killer pollution in China, mid teen temperatures in Moscow in winter etc etc. Extended hot/cold events also in the USA, so its a widespread problem north of the Equator. Obviously if the blocking pattern is in one place then there has to be some degree of "gridlock on either side. If there is little frontal activity moving through then temperatures will either increase or decrease over time, the same can be said for moisture feed which if prolonged causes major flooding as happened this year in the Mid west .20 yr rain events are happening every other year . There is a lot of research going into blocking patterns at present .Google a few headings, its all there. Worrying though, not any real solutions to the problem yet.

[Manukau heads obs]

Yes.exactly.
We have just had a long lasting blocking pattern prior
To this stormy low that has resulted in what looks to be the warmest May on record.

[treetop]

Blocking is less in the Southern hemisphere due to there only being 2 continents. On continents in mid latitudes highs dominate in the winter [decending air] and lows in the summer [rising air i.e hotter or colder than the surrounding oceans] The Andies are effectively high enough to create their own blocking i.e The high west of Chile is basically stationary all year round . Highs form East of Argentinia and move away.As a result the Polynesian Islands experience a more prolonged wet season than further west i.e persistant moisture flow from the tropics[ NE rather than SE trades.]Sorry to ramble on but the side effects of blocking are huge and we must now assume these may be a by product of global warming.

[Manduke]

the side effects of blocking are huge and we must now assume these may be a by product of global warming.

Therein lies a problem. 'Blocking' buys into the something-to-blame scenario that global warming seems to feed off. If a system is blocking another system, why do we not talk about following systems blocking systems even further west? Of course all systems will become stationary occasionally, and even some low pressure systems can slow almost to a standstill.

[RWood]

the side effects of blocking are huge and we must now assume these may be a by product of global warming.

Therein lies a problem. 'Blocking' buys into the something-to-blame scenario that global warming seems to feed off. If a system is blocking another system, why do we not talk about following systems blocking systems even further west? Of course all systems will become stationary occasionally, and even some low pressure systems can slow almost to a standstill.

I suggest that you don't know what you're talking about. Do some extensive reading and take the blinkers off.

[Manukau heads obs]

the blocking is linked to the jet stream, and how that behaves, i.e how many waves there, how up and down those are and how much and fast they migrate