General September Weather

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A rather mild day with various amounts of NW cloud including some showing various forms of lenticualrity.
Today's maximum was 20.8C with light variable winds.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Another rather mild day with it getting up to 21.8C today with moderate winds from the west to NW direction. A bit windy for Geraldine.
No mention of wind in the general MS forecast for the Canterbury Plains, just saying fine with high cloud.?
With the warnings they issue, should be included in the general, what they call the Short forecast which Is a term I disagree with, as I have said many times on this forum, bad grammar.
Anyway risk for thunderstorm look OK for tomorrow and more so for Thursday at the moment depending on conditions and timing.
Could be "Clayton" ones as well.

[snowchaser01]

GFS hinting at a severe winter storm for about a week's time, 22nd-23rd. First time in about 7 years i've seen numbers like what are being put out currently. EC not on board.... yet, but certainly one to watch.

Southerly flick at the end of this week too.

[Awhituobs]

ECMWF is showing a polar high and a low that will shovel cold air north for the 23rd and with a good moisture feed on the north side
could be warm advection snow setup possible

[tornado]

shame the front is falling apart as it hits auckland now.

but on friday we may get some rain. looks to be a nice rain band/front moving through. according to models.

edit light to low mod rain now. will be gone soon i think.

[Razor]

GFS hinting at a severe winter storm for about a week's time, 22nd-23rd. First time in about 7 years i've seen numbers like what are being put out currently. EC not on board.... yet, but certainly one to watch.

GFS doesn't want to know about that on the latest run. More westerly quarter pattern all next week I expect typical of normal spring weather

[snowchaser01]

GFS hinting at a severe winter storm for about a week's time, 22nd-23rd. First time in about 7 years i've seen numbers like what are being put out currently. EC not on board.... yet, but certainly one to watch.

GFS doesn't want to know about that on the latest run. More westerly quarter pattern all next week I expect typical of normal spring weather

Yep, just one to watch over the next few days.

[Awhituobs]

nice to see some sun and some warmth here this afternoon (17c)

[mikestormchaser]

Keep watch later this evening with a brief SW flick from about timaru north up to Banks peninsula.. could be coastal thunderstorm/ hail brushing past. Very coastal though

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Keep watch later this evening with a brief SW flick from about Timaru north up to Banks peninsula.. could be coastal thunderstorm/ hail brushing past. Very coastal though

Some lightning way out to the east of the Canterbury Bight this evening from clusters moving west to east way out there.
Must be Cc as nothing showing up on the Blitz. Sfreics on the AM.
Can't see anything from here, sadly..

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Looks like Horowhenua is getting it with a severe TW issued there

[mikestormchaser]

Quite an intense cell clipped banks peninsula john tonight. Lightning on the tracker. Probably would of seen flashes to the east had i went outside

[Razor]

Could be one of the last chances this season for a decent Canterbury skifield top up tomorrow night.

Looks like a rapid meltfest next week

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Nice Iridescence colouring on lenticular cloud this afternoon

[jamie]

The most horrid weather the past few days. Cold gale and mostly cloudy. Yuk.

No decent rain in the 10 day forecast. What are some main centres record low rainfalls for september? If this pattern carries on we could be looking at some records.


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[Orion]

Somewhat unusual to see iridescence on a lenticular cloud?

Great photo, details like that often don't photograph well.

[Awhituobs]

@jamie
certainly very dry/low rainfall
my soil moisture readings are starting to move to drier now...and spring has only just started

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

A fine day with NW winds and a maximum temperature of 21.7C.
The interesting feature for today was the Iridescence forms on a permanent lenticular cloud that lasted for a long time in breezy NW conditions this afternoon. This cloud lasted for a long period in one position before slowly dissipating this evening.

[David]

Just 23mm here month to date with the drier then normal pattern looking set to continue. The previous 10 years have averaged 128mm for September on my station, so well below normal this year.

[Cyclone Tracy]

9mm here MTD, 105 mm is my average for September. MetService North Shore site at Whangaparaoa is currently on 9.6mm MTD.

[spwill]

For northern NZ I think we will have to wait for the influence of sub tropical systems now to get back to near normal rainfall.

Month to date rainfall, Niwa

[tornado]

looks like a band of rain tomorrow though. 15mm at the most. maybe a bit more.

[Nev]

No decent rain in the 10 day forecast. What are some main centres record low rainfalls for september? If this pattern carries on we could be looking at some records.

Hamilton's driest Sep was in 2006. That month also saw the 2nd driest Sep recorded at Christchurch Aero and Dunedin.
Below are the lowest Sep rainfalls recorded at some of the other main centre sites:

Code: Select all

Lowest Sep Rainfalls    Rain mm   Year   Records From

Auckland, Mangere        34.2     1965     1959
Auckland Aero            38.6     2008     1962
Auckland, Albert Park    18.9     1951     1853-1993
Auckland, Owairaka       15.5     1951     1949-2008
Tauranga Aero            15.8     1965     1898
Hamilton, Ruakura*       20.6     2006     1905 *new site
Hamilton, Ruakura*       26.2     2006     1905 *old site
Hamilton Aero            27.8     2006     1935
Wellington, Kelburn       8.2     1989     1928
Christchurch Aero         1.5     1980     1943
Christchurch Gardens      3.9     1915     1864
Dunedin, Musselburgh      6.3     1958     1918

* New Ruakura site established in Nov 2005, about 600m NW of old site which closed in Feb 2007.
Chch Gardens also missing data for Sep 1980 (airport record).

[cbm]

September has been one reliably wet month most years, including even last year which was way below average rainfall overall. Have to really hope for a month like December 2018 in Summer this year. My gauge is 462.8mm YTD, this day last year was 523.8mm, so 60mm behind.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Warm and windy day here in Geraldine today and up to 23C.
Rain band along the Alps with some possible thunderstorms there but nothing here.
Southerly came through this evening and delivered 9.9mm of rain to 10pm this evening.