NZ Weather Forum

Boring overcast day here with NE from around noon.
13.9c the maximum for today.
Drizzle turning to rain this evening.

Upper level temperatures are cooling over the North Island today, convergence + heating will generate some heavy showers + possible thunderstorms over BOP/Waikato this afternoon.

Auckland will be mainly fine today with a fresh cooling southwester, warmer on the NE side of the city.

Very cold air end of week could deliver snow to near sea level for southland/ otago and low levels for Canterbury if model data stays current. Would be a very late return to winter if eventuates. Short but sharp

mikestormchaser wrote: ↑Sun 22/10/2023 11:36 Very cold air end of week could deliver snow to near sea level for southland/ otago and low levels for Canterbury if model data stays current. Would be a very late return to winter if eventuates. Short but sharp

That would be right. I said to my partner last night that we probably wouldn’t need the fire anymore this year…

After some rain overnight and some drizzle this morning, an overcast dull claggy day did eventuate. 12C for today.
Light NE this afternoon. 9.5mm for today, mostly overnight and this morning.
Had the fire going this evening.
Sadly it will be cloudy for the Orionid Shower around 3am this morning.

spwill wrote: ↑Sun 22/10/2023 08:25 Upper level temperatures are cooling over the North Island today, convergence + heating will generate some heavy showers + possible thunderstorms over BOP/Waikato this afternoon.

Auckland will be mainly fine today with a fresh cooling southwester, warmer on the NE side of the city.

Starting to look quite convect-y now, with showers starting.

Cloud cleared away overnight to become a fine, mild, sunny day. Warmer here this afternoon than expected with it getting up to 20.1C with a light wind from between the south and east. Some high cloud to the west this evening.
Might be some thunderstorms around tomorrow?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Mon 23/10/2023 23:31 Might be some thunderstorms around tomorrow?

There is risk over Southland for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. The West Coast/Alps will get a show Thursday

The latest GFS runs have brought moisture back into Canterbury on Friday, so with this in mind there is a good chance of thunderstorms and hail.
Tot,s are around 60 between 10am and midday.
Also very cold with snow down to around 200-300m.

A light frost to follow on Saturday, so if you have planted for the season it might pay to cover them.

spwill wrote: ↑Tue 24/10/2023 08:07

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Mon 23/10/2023 23:31 Might be some thunderstorms around tomorrow?

There is risk over Southland for isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. The West Coast/Alps will get a show Thursday

Drove back from Queenstown to Ingill from mid morning - didn't look thundery at all.

No thunderstorms around although there could of been some around Fiordland way and the West Coast, weak ones though.
Cloudy this morning with interesting layers around but from noon it cleared to fine sunny afternoon but then later in the day, some cloud moved across from the west delivering a bit of a shower this evening. 0.6mm for today. 20.7C was the max for today.

Up to 25°C here this afternoon, very pleasant.
Observed some mares' tails aloft though, expecting a breeze tomorrow...
Still 20°C, north-easterly, high cloud.

Warm here too Nearly 25C.

Warm day here, with it getting upto 24.3C today with light winds.
Blue dome this morning but wispy mare's tails aloft from early afternoon with increasing cloud from the west as the day wore on. Interesting to see what this oncoming front will bring weatherwize?

Re yesterday's mares' tails: barometer was showing 1004.4 hPa when I left it last night, now on 994.7 hPa.
Can hear NW wind rising now.
16.7°C at the moment. 55% humidity.

Very gusty winds here this morning and some really bad gusts too.

Rain hitting windows now; 19.9°C, 48% humidity; 993.5 hPa. Some strong gusts of wind.

I have just driven ashburton to Chertsey and back. Driving conditions are very dangerous. Big big gusts of wind and some very impressive lightning lighting up the sky towards the mountains

Cape Turnagain currently showing W 161km/h gusting 206

Another situation where we are seeing winds exceed the potential model output predictions, gusts are reading 150-160 about the high country.
Wind is strong gusty NW here around 40-45kmh but I suspect will increase in the next few hours as that front saddles up the island.
Maybe a rumble in the spillover band late morning.

Hearing deep rumbles towards the hills over the last 15mins

NW has ramped up in the last half an hour here, gusting 65 to 70kmh.
A few big branches coming down.
Wind driven rain drops too, and 23C

26c at wigram (south chch) at work. Decent few gusts blowing outside. I see MS at Kaikoura airport has 29.1c!

Wind is ramping up again here now. Just as strong as the day of the red warning a few weeks ago.

A few more decent gusts through before and a brief spillover rain, enough for about 1mm.
Spotted a flash of lightning to the west too, but couldn't hear the thunder over roar in the trees.
Dropped to 20C now climbing again as the sun returns.

Still a risk of isolated thunder tomorrow with such cold upper air, and heavy showers supporting hail and sleet.
I'd be almost tempted to say a moderate risk due to it being late October too.