Sultry damp spell on the way, 8th Jan -

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 14/01/2007 21:37

From the wires today

NOAA has announced that El NIno has peaked and will dissipate in the March to May time frame.

Achten · Unread post by **Achten** » Mon 15/01/2007 07:21

Shows the HB cb right on the coast, interesting because there was quite a strong Westerly breeze at my place At one point the wind did swing easterly and I thought hmmm the sea breeze has kicked in. Maybe the convergence point was in this case near the coast. Apart from being a hot day that was the only excitement weather wise.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Tue 16/01/2007 17:53

Turnd out nice here in Christchurch this afternoon

abit of low cloud about this morning but that soon went away.
Still a muggy and humid feel in the air aswel

Saw those bloopers of Toni Marsh

good too have abit of a laugh in the forum.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 16/01/2007 20:01

the upper level trough over us here seems to be boring down to the surface....shower lines startin to develop out to my west here now...

Paul Mallinson · Unread post by **Paul Mallinson** » Wed 17/01/2007 11:11

Jasestrm wrote:Paul you are obviously with the MS? can i ask the reason for putting a moderate risk tomorrow thunderwise for canterbury?.
Interesting between the 3-4pm radars there has been a big change in the two with the latest at 4pm showing heavy rain in south canterbury.
Been having the odd breif spit shower come through in the last hour with some large drops in them.
Cheers
Jason.

Hi Jason,

I've been off for a few days. I Had a look back at that the overnight and day 2 charts and remember the reason for the moderate risk arose out of a fairly strong trough crossing from Buller/Nelson area in the overnight period and across Canterbury in the morning hours of the 14th. Temps at 500 hPa were forecast to fall to about -16C as the trof crossed and you will recall that it was warm and moist at the surface over this period. Forecast soundings were quite unstable but it relied upon reasonably warm temps from about late morning.
I had a quick look at the CHCH obs and I see there was fog in the morning (which we thought may well occur) which held the temps down. It didn't get to T=21, Td=16/18 until mid afternoon by which time it would have been warming aloft. Nothing much happened. So there you are. One weighs up the liklihood and assigns a risk. Perhaps it should have been low, but at least we didn't give it a high!

Cheers,

Paul

Manukau heads obs · Wed 17/01/2007 21:10

looks like a classic easterly surge will develop for the auckland area overnight and in the morning...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 17/01/2007 21:35

It looks easterly now with 8/8 Sc tonight. With a super inversion at 3000ft shouldn't get any precipitation except maybe a few spots of drizzle.

Looks like the near term outlook is an anticyclonic southwesterly which is likley to be cloudy as well. The trend for a poor summer continues!
Maybe Augie Auer is onto something with his global cooling theory!!!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Thu 18/01/2007 08:51

Cooler air and clearing skies moving in now, currently 16C /dp12 from 19C /dp16C at midnight.

Our summer weather has gone like our Cricket.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Thu 18/01/2007 10:35

Thank god the rugby starts in two weeks then

dija · Unread post by **dija** » Thu 18/01/2007 10:45

Was a tad chilly here this morning 9Â° with a wind chill of 6.8Â°
had goose bumps whilst feeding the doves/kune's

Has sure been a month of temperture swings