South Pacific and Coral Sea TC Season - 2009/10

[Nev]

Here's a few general stats: Hurricane Katrina's lowest MSLP was 902 hPa (using aircraft dropwindsondes). The most intense TC ever recorded in modern times was the NW Pacific's Typhoon Tip in Oct 1979, with a MSLP of 870 hPa (Tip is also the largest). The most intense TC ever recorded in the South Pacific Region was TC Zoe in Dec, 2002, with 890 hPA. The 2nd lowest intense in the SPC was TC Percy in Feb, 2005, with 900 hPa. It'll be interesting to see what the WMO's official figure for TC Ului is (I'm guessing somewhere between 898 hPa and 912 hPa).

So far we've officially had 8 TC's in the SPC region this season (not counting Olga which crossed the 160°E meridian and was named by Australia). Earlier predictions for the SPC this season, based on a weak El Nino, were for a near normal 8-11 named TC's (about 9 is normal).

[Vertigo]

tomas is encountering significant shear, wont last long now...
ului, on the other hand, doesnt appear to be weakening any time soon, and is fairly stationary.

[Manukau heads obs]

just got back from surfing swells on the Warkworth east coast area, north of Auckland, that ran ahead of TC Tomas
Some nice waves and rides, the swells slowly got bigger during the day, and with the very long period, at times sucked the water out beach ahead of them!

[Manukau heads obs]

Ului is moving SE now....and it has an outflow tail to the SE.....looks to me like the quickly moving Tomas is almost dragging Ului with it a bit at the moment....

[Razor]

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml

Looks like a Cat 4 again soon as it approaches Queensland....At least they are getting plenty of warning

[Manukau heads obs]

yeah, its curved again, now moving S, and even SSW now
eye has got bigger and a bit ragged this morning

[Lacertae]

The eye is huge compare with the size of the whole thing !
What does it mean in terms of wind speeds or water temperature or else ?

[Michael]

Perhaps its reorganising itself or may fill ??????

The eye is huge compare with the size of the whole thing !
What does it mean in terms of wind speeds or water temperature or else ?

[Manukau heads obs]

when the eye is bigger, one problem is that destructive winds cover a bigger area

[Nev]

Impact looks further now up around Townsvile. Heck, she may end up in the Gulf of Carpentaria...

A few updates:
BoM

Code: Select all

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0114 UTC 18/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 157.8E
Location Accuracy: within 10 nm [20 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [198 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 960 hPa

REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours, the eye now
being larger and more ragged with cloud tops remaining relatively warm. Dvorak
analysis based on an Eye pattern DT=4.5 based on DG surround with OW eye. PT
suggest 4.0. FT=4.5 while CI held at 5.0. Intensity of 80 knots consistent with
recent SATCON estimate. The recent weakening trend is most likely due to cooler
sea surface temperatures less than 26C caused by ocean upwelling resulting from
the slow movement in the past 48 hours. Despite this the upper level pattern
generally remains conducinve for development with low wind shear and strong
poleward outflow associated with an upper level trough to the south.

Current steering remains light, although Ului should begin to accelerate and
track more to the southwest in 12 hours then to the west southwest towards the
Queensland coast later on Friday as a mid-level ridge builds to the south of the
system. 

Forecast intensity may weaken in the next 6-12 hours but then slight
reintensification could occur as the cyclone accelerates into a region of higher
sea temperatures and a short-wave upper trough to the south assists with upper
outflow. Category 3 intensity is forecast through to landfall, although it is
possible that some weakening is possible just prior to landfall 

At this stage a severe impact on the Queensland coast on Sunday morning seems
likely.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

---------------

IDQP0005 
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:56am EST on Thursday the 18th of March 2010

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon.


At 10:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
1140 kilometres northeast of Mackay and
1310 kilometres east of Cairns and
moving south southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to remain about the same strength.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to begin moving in a southwesterly
direction tonight towards the Queensland coast. 

On current predictions the most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the
coast Sunday morning between Cardwell and Mackay. However, it is important to
understand that some uncertainty remains in this outlook period.

DAMAGING winds should develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon during Saturday as
the cyclone approaches the coast.

The windy conditions over much of the Queensland east coastal waters will
continue due to the tight pressure gradient generated by a combination of a high
pressure system situated in the Tasman Sea and Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului.
Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast
and produce dangerous surf conditions on the exposed coasts.

People between Cardwell and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases. If you are unsure about the actions to
be taken, information is available from your local government or local State
Emergency Service.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 157.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 20 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour 
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

JTWC

Code: Select all

WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 157.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 157.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 705 NM EAST 
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT 
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND ABRF AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.5/5.0 FROM BOTH PGTW 
AND ABRF. TC 20P HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING, THOUGH STILL ONLY MODERATE, 
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER UPWELLED 
BY THE SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE. AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE 
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC 20P IS EXPECTED TO TURN 
WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN QUEENSLAND COAST, 
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS CLOSE 
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 20P SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO AS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW COMPETES WITH MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER TO INFLUENCE STORM 
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER, AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A 
DECREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING TO 
THE SOUTH SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 
181500Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

[NZstorm]

GFS map for 0600Z Saturday.

[Nev]

TC Ului has been gradually weakening since Tuesday night and she was only boarder-line Cat 3 this morn, losing most of her eye structure. BoM now have her at Cat 2 and despite earlier optimism of re-intensification before landfall, low SST's and shear should now hamper any possible re-development. BoM 'conservatively' think she'll hold at Cat 2 through to landfall (although I have my doubts).

Code: Select all

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0115 UTC 19/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 156.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [225 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to increasing
northwesterly wind shear of about 20 knots. Dvorak analysis based on shear
pattern, the low level circulation being on the northern edge of the deep
convection yielding a DT of 3.0, MET=2.5, PT=3.0 so DT=3.0 with CI being held
higher at 4.0 and max wind at 60 knots. This is consistent with latest AMSU
estimates. ASCAT shows region of 50+ knots and asymmetric gale region biased to
the south.

It now appears the shear will remain a factor in hampering any possible
re-development, although forecast intensity conservatively held at category 2
through to landfall. The increased speed of motion should enhance winds on the
southern side of the cyclone.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west
southwest on Saturday and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on
Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there
is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

---------------

IDQP0005 
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 11:14am EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

Correction: To include mention of adjacent inland areas in the watch region.
A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon,
extending to the adjacent inland areas. 

At 10:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
950 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1100 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened to category two intensity this morning and is
now moving to the southwest towards the Queensland coast.
 
It now appears unlikely that the cyclone will reintensify. The most likely
scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning between Cardwell
and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon later on Saturday,
then increase further Sunday morning as the cyclone nears the coast then extend
to the adjacent inland parts.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for these
conditions.

People between Cardwell and Yeppoon should consider what action they will need
to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services 
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 10:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 16.7 degrees South 156.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour 
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Friday 19 March.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's
website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212.  The Bureau and the State
Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

Visual sat-pics from 7:30pm last night, 9am this morn and 2:30pm this arvo...

[Vertigo]

yep biiig shear now.. too bad, was a lovely little cyclone for ages, and notable for its possibility of visiting us. oh well, there shall be more.

[Nev]

TC Ului seems to have held her strength overnight. Yesterday's wind shear to the NW looks to have weakened and convection has persisted to the S. She also appears to have taken on a more curved band structure. Based on the prospect of the shear continuing to ease, arresting the weakening trend, and aided by a WSW movement of 10 kts, BoM still expect her to remain Cat 2 until landfall...

Code: Select all

IDQP0005 
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:13am EST on Saturday the 20th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Townsville to Ayr.
A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Ayr to Yeppoon.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Townsville.

At 4:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
690 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
880 kilometres east of Townsville and
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category two intensity, is moving to the southwest
towards the Queensland coast.
 
The most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning
between Cardwell and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by
landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Townsville and Yeppoon later today, then
increase further and extend to Cardwell and to adjacent inland parts on Sunday
morning as the cyclone nears the coast. 

Heavy rainfall and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People between Townsville and Yeppoon should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight
hours. 
People between Cardwell and Townsville and adjacent inland parts should consider
what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services 
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 18.4 degrees South 155.1 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour 
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

---------------

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1927 UTC 19/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 18.4S
Longitude: 155.1E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [235 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa

REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to northwesterly
wind shear, however shear has weakened over the past 6-12 hours. Dvorak analysis
still based on shear pattern, the low level circulation being within 0.3 degrees
of convection yielding a DT=PT=MET=FT=3.5.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west
southwest on today and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on
Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there
is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is held at category two through to landfall based on the
prospect of the shear 

[Nev]

Interesting to see BoM's track-map now show the risk of intensification to Cat 3 prior to landfall very early tomorrow morn. She does seem to have lost a lot of this morns new gained convection though...

Code: Select all

IDQP0005 
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland
including Charters Towers and Clermont are requested to USE the Standard
Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 1:55pm EST on Saturday the 20th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon and
inland including Charters Towers and Clermont.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for areas extending further inland of the warning
area.

At 1:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
365 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
580 kilometres east of Townsville and
moving west southwest at 27 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay early Sunday,
possibly re-intensifying to a Category 3 system before landfall. The cyclone is
then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 170 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect
coastal and island communities in the threatened area early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon later today,
then extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence may rise to just above the normal high tide
mark overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the
foreshore.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People between Cardwell and Yeppoon and inland including Charters Towers and
Clermont should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a
safe place. 
- Boats and outside property should be secured before nightfall. 

People further inland of the warning area should consider what action they will
need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services 
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 1:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 19.7 degrees South 152.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 27 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 155 kilometres per hour 
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 978 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

-------------

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0135 UTC 20/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.6S
Longitude: 153.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [242 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 978 hPa

REMARKS:
Following a period of weakening due to northwesterly wind shear, Tropical
Cyclone Ului has shown increased organisation in the last 6 hours with LLCC now
under deep convection.

Dvorak analysis gave an ambiguous curbed band of 0.9 wrap yielding DT of 3.5.
MET of 4.0 with PAT of 3.5. Hence FT/CI = 3.5.

AMSU estimates suggest higher wind speeds are possible. Surface observations a
large area of storm force winds.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track continuing west southwest
today and crossing the coast between Ayr and Sarina early on Sunday morning,
steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there is a higher than
normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is based on some development continuing, into weak category 3
near landfall. However models do not suggest further intensification so some
doubt remains on the system's reponse to shear.

[Andrew Massie]

Creal Reef wx stn starting to show real wind now, 88kph.. http://www.wunderground.com/history/sta ... story.html

[Manukau heads obs]

it does look like it has re gained a bit of strength

sugar cane crops will get damage, but otherwise queensland should be able to be prepared for a Cat 2 TC I would think OK?
one problem is they have had alot of rain already this summer...they will be hoping it rain itself out quickly to avoid flooding I would think

[Philip Duncan]

Cat 3 now

[Michael]

Probably the warm shallow waters off the coast doing it,its currently 978,went to 983 then 980 according to bom in Aussie.
Reckon it be a rain maker,hopefully no fatalities.Be interesting over Prosperpine.

[Nev]

Yep, BoM had TC Ului at Cat 3 about 1.5 hrs ago.
Current estimates: 975 hPa and max gusts to 165 km/h...

Code: Select all

IDQP0005 
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to
Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont are requested to USE the
Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 4:54pm EST on Saturday the 20th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon and
inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont.

At 4:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
280 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
495 kilometres east of Townsville and
moving west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour.

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay, most likely
in the Proserpine region as a severe tropical cyclone early Sunday. The cyclone
is then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 170 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect
coastal and island communities in the threatened area early Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon this
evening, then extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence may rise to just above the normal high tide
mark overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the
foreshore.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People between Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to Hughenden, including Charters
Towers and Clermont should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to
shelter in a safe place. 
- Boats and outside property should be secured before nightfall. 
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services 
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 19.9 degrees South 151.5 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 165 kilometres per hour 
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 975 hectoPascals

---------------

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0701 UTC 20/03/2010
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.9S
Longitude: 151.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [259 deg]
Speed of Movement: 15 knots [28 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa

REMARKS:
Following a period of weakening due to northwesterly wind shear, Severe Tropical
Cyclone Ului has shown increased organisation in the last 6 hours with LLCC now
under deep convection and strong banding evident in the most recent images.

Dvorak analysis: Curved band wrap of 1.0 yields DT of 3.5, although most recent
image could suggest a weak eye [surround MG, DG/LG eye but elongated] giving
DT=4.0. MET/PT=4.0. While time averaged DT suggests DT=3.5 the FT/CI is
estimated at 4.0. However, final intensity is estimated higher at 65 knots
influenced by recent AMSU intensity estimate of 78 knots [1min ave] and by the
15 knot WSW motion.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track continuing west southwest
to landfall crossing the coast between Ayr and Mackay most likely in the
Proserpine area early on Sunday morning.

The cyclone should then weaken over land.

[Nev]

Last estimates at 1000z - 955 hPa and max gusts to 205 km/h...

Code: Select all

IDQP0005 
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to
Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont are requested to USE the
Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 8:58pm EST on Saturday the 20th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Yeppoon and
inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont.

At 8:00 pm EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
175 kilometres northeast of Mackay and
375 kilometres east southeast of Townsville and
moving west at 29 kilometres per hour.

At 9:00 pm EST the cyclone is estimated to be
154 kilometres north northeast of Mackay and
183 kilometres east of Bowen.

The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between Ayr and Mackay, most likely
in the Proserpine region as a severe tropical cyclone early Sunday. The cyclone
is then expected to weaken inland later on Sunday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 200 km/hr near the cyclone centre may affect
coastal and island communities in the threatened area late tonight and early
Sunday.

DAMAGING winds are expected to develop between Cardwell and Yeppoon this
evening, then extend to adjacent inland parts during Sunday.

TIDES between Bowen and St Lawrence may rise to just above the highest tide of
the year overnight with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the
foreshore.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to develop about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence early Sunday.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later on Sunday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People in the path of the dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a
secure shelter while the very destructive winds develop late tonight and early
Sunday. Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone as
winds may remain light for up to an hour - very destructive winds from a
different direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the
instructions of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

People from Cardwell to Yeppoon and inland to Hughenden, including Charters
Towers and Clermont should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to
shelter in a safe place. 
- Boats and outside property should now be secured. 
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services 
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 8:00 pm EST:

.Centre located near...... 20.0 degrees South 150.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 29 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour 
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 955 hectoPascals

Post Note: The 955 hPa above may be a BoM typo, i.e. hourly data suggests 965 hPa more likely.

[Nev]

TC Ului made landfall near Airlie Beach (between Bowen and Mackay) at 4:30am NZDT, with max gusts to 205 km/h, 10-Minute max winds of 150 km/h and a central pressure of 965 hPa. Last night she appeared to go through a period of explosive re-intensification just prior to landfall, almost bordering on Cat 4, and even developed a visable eye. Hamilton Island recorded gusts to 202 km/h just prior to the eye passing over, dropping to 976 hPa...

Code: Select all

IDQP0005 
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Townsville to Yeppoon and inland to
Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont are requested to USE the
Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning.

TOP PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 2:49am EST on Sunday the 21st of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal areas from Townsville to Yeppoon and
inland to Hughenden, including Charters Towers and Clermont.

The Cyclone WARNING from Cardwell to Townsville has been CANCELLED.

At 2:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 3 was estimated to be
55 kilometres east southeast of Bowen and
110 kilometres north northwest of Mackay and
moving west at 28 kilometres per hour.

At 3:00 am EST the cyclone is estimated to be
39 kilometres southeast of Bowen and
119 kilometres northwest of Mackay.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului crossed the coast near Airlie Beach at 1.30am. The
large eye of Ului is currently moving inland near Proserpine and Bowen and will
pass near Collinsville in the next hour. The cyclone is expected to gradually
weaken as it moves further inland later today.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts to 205 km/hr are currently affecting the coastal and
island communities between Ayr and Seaforth and will continue for the next few
hours.

DAMAGING winds are expected in areas between Townsville and Yeppoon over the
next few hours, then extending to adjacent inland parts during today.

TIDES between Bowen and Mackay are currently near the highest tide of the year
with very rough seas and dangerous conditions along the foreshore.

HEAVY RAINFALL and flooding are likely to continue about coastal and adjacent
inland areas between Bowen and St Lawrence.

DANGEROUS SURF conditions are expected to continue about exposed beaches south
of the cyclone until later today. A separate Severe Weather Warning is
current for these conditions.

People in the path of the dangerous cyclone should stay calm and remain in a
secure shelter while the very destructive winds develop over the next few hours.
Do not venture outside if you find yourself in the eye of the cyclone as winds
may remain light for up to an hour - very destructive winds from a different
direction could resume at any time. Heed the advice and follow the instructions
of Police or State Emergency Service personnel.

People from Townsville to Yeppoon and inland to Hughenden, including Charters
Towers and Clermont should have completed preparations and remain in secure
shelter. 
.Boats and outside property should now be secured. 
.For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services 
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
.For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului at 2:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 20.3 degrees South 148.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 28 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 205 kilometres per hour 
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 965 hectoPascals

-------------------

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1249 UTC 20/03/2010

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 20.0S
Longitude: 149.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west [268 deg]
Speed of Movement: 18 knots [32 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots [150 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots [205 km/h]
Central Pressure: 964 hPa

REMARKS:
Following a period of weakening due to northwesterly wind shear, Severe Tropical
Cyclone Ului has shown increased organisation in the last 6 to 12 hours with
strong banding evident in the most recent satellite images.

Dvorak analysis: Embedded centre pattern has been adopted over the past few
satellite images with LG surround, giving a DT of 4.5. This pattern is also
supported by nearby surface observations. The most recent image suggests a
possible eye pattern developing with MG and OW white, which also yields a DT of
4.5. MET and PT suggest 4.0 and 4.5 respectively. FT based on DT as it appears
clear.

The cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves inland during Sunday.

[Manukau heads obs]

thanks for all the info posted Nev, your been busy!
i like this , from the BOM

People in the path of the dangerous cyclone should stay calm

I see its also moving very fast now, 28kmh, and so that can be added to the windspeed south of the center

also, what does it take for the Ozy rain radar to show heavy rain when a TC only shows as moderate rain (I see the Fiji rain radar is using the same model )

ps, what happened to the temperature on that graph? I suspect some sensor damage? its not going to be 40C inside the eye!

[Vertigo]

im not surprised at the reformed eye, the microwave images clearly showed in last night! looks like a good blow alright!

[Vertigo]

first video on youtube is up: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0DxMI93ugYQ