Queens Birthday Weekend Low

[GreggWard]

Just had a single almighty clap of thunder. I have been looking out the window but I haven't seen any further lightning yet.

[Storm Struck]

Patchy rain this morning in Christchurch, but a trip to Hanmer Springs revealed a different story where sunshine and not much wind was.
It will certainly be a different story there tomorrow with snow very likly in the township.
I think the main focus for Canterbury,Otago with this system tomorrow is significant falls of snow to 200-300m, and then if the freezing levels decide to drop further then let it be.
The moisture is certainly there and i am surprised a snow warning hasnt been issued for atleast down to 400m by MS, where i would say a good 30cm should fall to.
Shall see how the day plays out.

[Tim S]

Does anyone know what are the chances of snow in the Nelson lakes region tomorrow? I know the Saint Arnaud township is high enough at just over 600m asl from memory but I am guessing moisture will be the problem there? still a few flurries late tomorrow shouldn't be out of the question up there tomorrow arvo/evening, should it? I am planning a trip up there on Tuesday to get some shots.

[Nev]

The moisture is certainly there and i am surprised a snow warning hasnt been issued for atleast down to 400m by MS, where i would say a good 30cm should fall to.

They already have (was also mentioned on TV1 weather earlier tonight)...

MetService:

Snow Otago Warnings
Issued: 9:09pm Sunday 6 June 2010
Valid from: 9:09pm Sunday 6 June 2010

SNOW
Forecasters expect cold southerlies and periods of rain in South Canterbury overnight Sunday and during Monday, bringing heavy falls of snow to some high country farms above about 700 metres. FORECAST Overnight Sunday and during Monday, snow is expected to gradually lower to about 400 metres. Some heavy falls of snow are possible in the 18 hours between midnight Sunday and 6pm Monday, where 20cm to 30cm is possible in the South Canterbury hills and ranges above about 700 metres. Lighter snow showers are likely after this time through to midnight Monday.

[drew]

We are getting a real blasting here... would hate to think what is happening in New Plymouth...
Radar shows a lot of rain coming.

Strange wee blips of lightning popping off now and then, nothing more then a nanosecond of a flash, like a welder trying to start a weld.....

[GreggWard]

We are getting a real blasting here... would hate to think what is happening in New Plymouth...
Radar shows a lot of rain coming.

Strange wee blips of lightning popping off now and then, nothing more then a nanosecond of a flash, like a welder trying to start a weld.....

Drew, I hope these storms move further SE into the Manawatu.

[drew]

We are getting a real blasting here... would hate to think what is happening in New Plymouth...
Radar shows a lot of rain coming.

Strange wee blips of lightning popping off now and then, nothing more then a nanosecond of a flash, like a welder trying to start a weld.....

Drew, I hope these storms move further SE into the Manawatu.

Greg, they are roaring over us head straight for you
I think we are in a wild and wooly night!

[Philip Duncan]

Agree with you Drew - they are moving inland and still staying big.

The low is still a day away from moving across central NZ... rough for a lot of places over the next 36 hours

[GreggWard]

Was just outside and saw IC flashes from a thunderstorm heading down towards Horowhenua/Kapiti Coast. I also saw illumination from a lightning flash way off to our W/NW. It's probably coming from Drew's storms.

[David]

thats interesting storms are heading for Manawatu considering there is no risk assigned to the area by MS...nothing up here yet (and we are high risk apparently, lol)

[GreggWard]

It appears that those storms have run out of puff. There was still distant lightning from the storms to the NW, until about 25 mins ago.

Scratch that, I have just heard some close thunder. Off to investigate again.

[jamie]

cant wait for what is now just off the coast to come in. been building all afternoon/night

[Talbotm]

Lets just hope for some snow around the north island we have been very unlucky so far this year.
Would love it if it snowed to 500m in the lower North.

[Philip Duncan]

Jamie I'm guessing 2am, what about you?

[GreggWard]

cant wait for what is now just off the coast to come in. been building all afternoon/night

Jamie, are you talking about that big cloud mass out to the W/NW of the Waikato, Auckland and Northland? It doesn't look as though it is lightning active yet.

[GreggWard]

Had a few flashes of lightning and thunder within 10km of here from those ex-Taranaki storms and some moderate to heavy showers have passed over. It has now stopped again.

[GreggWard]

I hope that cloud mass off the coast does really fire up and produce some good storms. It certainly looks to have that look about it.

[jamie]

Yep thats what im talking about. Yea i never looked to see if it was lightning active. I just looked at the sat loop and assumed it was active by the rapid development of it. Bit of a let down if it doesnt kick into gear.

If i had to put a time that it hits the coast i would say about 2.30. Maybe more like 3am.

[kaimaikid]

Just had a look at the lightning stations in Hamilton and Auckland (Kerikeri seems to be 404 again), one only showing 28 flashes and the other 38 since midnight?, I guess it turned out to be a bit of a fizzer overnight.

Mind you its still warm here, 15.2 deg C @ 0515 with virtually no rain nor wind in the last 10 hours here, 991.2 hPa and the dewpoint @ 14.3 deg C.

Hopefully we may see some action today???

[Tim S]

Quite warm here overnight in Nelson too, in fact I'd imagine the 6pm to 6am average temp was probably around 14C as apposed to the 6am to 6pm which was more like 12C. Definitely a day I have missed having my weather station to verify some of the weather I've been getting, would have loved to see a temp trace for the last 24hrs, not to mention a wind speed graph.

Looks to me as the bulk of the rain has passed through both islands now but we are now getting into the unstable air between the fronts so anything can and probably will happen (well anything as in storms/hail/wind etc., don't see a sudden fine spell with mid 20's temp today for anyone! ) The convection around the low centre it self looks very good and will surely bring some decent storms when that crosses, going by metservice STW and the latest sat pics it seems like it is more likely to cross just to the north of Taranaki.

Looking forward to seeing where this snow settles, will definitely be going up to the Nelson Lakes tomorrow regardless and I'm hoping I'll have plenty of white in my shots and not from clouds for a change!

[Richard]

Weather being rather settled this weekend so far but this morning a light westerly has come up and 3 mm in the last hour or so.5C so a bit more of the white stuff should be falling higher up,not that i want to go near the horrible stuff.

[snowstormwatcher]

Raining here 16mm so far southerly hasnt gone through yet snow level still above 600m currently 4 degrees.

[jamie]

Wind gusted to 77km/h here last night and we got a burst of heavy rain. Still really warm at 14.3C

[Michael]

Taranaki should get hammered today.

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Models show very heavy rain around this area from about noon till later tonight. Should be interesting, particuarly if the snow level can lower for our friends inland. 7mm so far with steady light to moderate falls.