David wrote:Some cold upper air due over NZ in the weekend/early next week, GFS showing 500mb temp under -30°C over much of the NI:
and the latest GFS run has 850 temps getting down to -6C up as far as Dunedin on its run for Sunday 12Z, added to thickness of 528 that looks promising for widespread low level snow. Wouldn't be the best way for the folk of Northern Otago to start a working week though after what they have gone through in the last couple of weeks or so, but still it is winter.
What models are you reading? the latest GFS run i just looked at has the THK levels down to as low as 521 overnight sunday/ early monday with -7C for the 850mb temp.
Problem being of course the lack of moisture and low dewpoints .
Tim S wrote:...
and the latest GFS run has 850 temps getting down to -6C up as far as Dunedin on its run for Sunday 12Z, added to thickness of 528 that looks promising for widespread low level snow. Wouldn't be the best way for the folk of Northern Otago to start a working week though after what they have gone through in the last couple of weeks or so, but still it is winter.
What models are you reading? the latest GFS run i just looked at has the THK levels down to as low as 521 overnight sunday/ early monday with -7C for the 850mb temp.
Problem being of course the lack of moisture and low dewpoints .
It only has 24hr steps but I like it as it covers such a large area, I know there are better ones out there for NZ but I still like my old links. You can see even at 0Z on Sunday they are now going for -6C over a large area of the East Coast of the SI. Lets just hope it comes off! Moisture is going to be low but still with temps that low you can't expect that much, still I don't want much! and I know I wont get much here.
Seems like another low is coming up after this dominating high, LOL
Why couldn't we get these lows greeting us in the summer? Then our thunder chances would have sky rocketed!
I am crossing my fingers that this spring coming will be a very unstable 1, LOL
I thought frosts would be likely in many places Wed/Thu mornings, even light frosts in parts of Auckland, but the forecast temps seem to suggest even Hamilton won't get down to 0?
Why couldn't we get these lows greeting us in the summer? Then our thunder chances would have sky rocketed!
Yes, thats the thing that irks me about NZ's climate. The summer months are heavily dominated by anticyclones.
And when we do get summer instability there is no shear.
Had a hail shower here this evening but that should clear away as the incoming anticyclone moves closer to us with some fine frosty weather for much of this week.
Should be mild this WE but not much weather coming up according to models, but then that could change, as another low lurks in the seas in northern waters.
Could be frosty next few days till about fri/sat depending on the part of the country with "the high bigger than Australia",I dont think is unusual as we had several highs last winter like that.
Heavy showers here throughout the night, rather persistent at times looking at the line developed on the radar. 13mm since midnight. Backyard is completely saturated now as infiltration has stopped occurring in some areas which doesn't normally happen there. That would be done to such a wet May and start to June. Hints that a subtropical low will form early next week. I have a very impressive model run that popped up a day ago that ill post later today sometime cause I thought it was rather unusual
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
The latest run just through shows the possibility of that 2nd subtropical low meeting up with the southerly front early next week which Blue skies have had snow forecasting to very low levels ("200m or lower") for a few days now
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Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
Good. The next anticyclone could be quite severe, ie.1040hpa plus so it could push up the severeity of a cold blast from the south as it moves towards the south of NZ.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Good. The next anticyclone could be quite severe, ie.1040hpa plus so it could push up the severeity of a cold blast from the south as it moves towards the south of NZ.