NZ Weather Forum

Alexandra sitting on 15.9 despite a predicated max of 9 from Metservice

Met only 11C off with there high in Timaru

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melja wrote:Met only 11C off with there high in Timaru

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To be fair, having lived in Timaru a couple of years, unexpected NW arch set ups do cause very occasional days like that there, and its pretty rare and hard to predict!

Warming up now, up to 5.5C . Heatwave

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Warming up now, up to 5.5C . Heatwave

Same down here - we've hit 5.9°C!
I thought we might be on for a station record low max temp, but to no avail.

I see Milton broke through the 1°C barrier for a full 20 minutes today.

Over 6C now. I see that Add to dictionary's max was 3C on the weather tonight.

There will be a big temp contrast between Southland and Northland tomorrow. Should hit 20C in Northland tomorrow while Southland will be in single figures for sure.

Will be keeping an eye on the instability in the north tomorrow.

Metservice projecting 50mm plus in Chch 36 hours to Friday night

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Over 6C now. I see that Add to dictionary's max was 3C on the weather tonight.

........sorry , I meant Timaru's max was 3C. Sorry, I've got a new laptop

so nuch for the weather bomb
so over used by the media now
very little rain here and only strong winds (and not gales)
so far at lest anyway ( there is a better rain band developing now and moving onto the far north, which is lighting active)

Razor wrote:Metservice projecting 50mm plus in Chch 36 hours to Friday night

And flip flop they go, halved to 25mm just like that

I never look at predicted amounts
they are going to always change or end up being different to predictions
just look at the trends only I suggest and not get hung up on exact numbers
(hence my tongue in cheek comment the other day where the media quoted a computer model output of rain forecast that to the nearest 0.1mm...how rediculous...it should instead by probability over a range or similar)

I agree Brian, the rainfall parameter would be the worst performing model parameter.


Thunderstorm potential for the upper North Island today, as far south as Waikato by the looks. Lapse rates steepen to 6.8C today which is a favourable number for storm development. Looks like trough lines will come south today/tomorrow.

A couple of PWS in the far north had some heavy falls early morning with an hourly total 36mm at Karikari peninsula.

Drizzle and 16C here.
Big instability numbers in the GFS over Northland this afternoon.

spwill wrote:Drizzle and 16C here.
Big instability numbers in the GFS over Northland this afternoon.

Not what they need going by the news

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9395498 ... -far-north

The Kaeo River does flood easily and frequently though
was an intense looking rain band that moved through the far north this morning that' for sure
slowly moving south..

A few good T-storms included up north between midnight and 8am this morn by the looks…

Oh Dear…

'Severe weather warnings: It's going to be a shocker' - NZ Herald
22 Jun, 2017 7:47am

…A mini-tornado took tiles off a roof in Te Aroha, and the fire brigade put up a tarpaulin.

'Glossary of tornado terms' - Wikipedia

Mini-tornado – A fallacious term often used in European news media to refer to tornadoes occurring there; even large, strong, and/or long track tornadoes produced by supercells. This is apparently due to the erroneous perception that "real" tornadoes do not occur in Europe (or elsewhere where the term is applied).

So dark here at 3pm... when I was sprinting through the rain to the car
Most horrid piece of weather I've been out in for a while.
7.2deg C at my place.

Same here in Geraldine. Just come back from a walk into the town.
Strangely 'warmer' today than yesterday

Niwa says Kaitaia has had 54mm of rain in the past 10 hours, which is more rain than the town has had in total this month.

thats easily done as june has been dry up to now
and 54mm for the far north in 10 hours in very normal for this time of year for a northerly rain event
everything about this current weather system is very normal for the time of year
(the media are beating up though..ratings driven?)

Manukau heads obs wrote:

Niwa says Kaitaia has had 54mm of rain in the past 10 hours, which is more rain than the town has had in total this month.

thats easily done as june has been dry up to now
and 54mm for the far north in 10 hours in very normal for this time of year for a northerly rain event
everything about this current weather system is very normal for the time of year
(the media are beating up though..ratings driven?)

A teacher friend in Kaitaia mentioned school shut and some pretty serious flooding there earlier today. Play the ball, not the 'man'

but I was not aiming the ball at anyone in particular
I guess I will just not say anything then
but I will add that
Kaeo floods regularly and easily, its nothing new for them

It's not been a big event for Northland by the looks.

June 2017 tracking to be below average for rainfall in Auckland?