NZ Weather Forum

Just 0.6mm here overnight.

Looking like there will be a lot of lightning in the Tasman from Sunday into early next week but how much of it reaches NZ?

Nice beefy showers coming through Tauranga currently, hadn't anticipated how heavy they were going to be.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Thu 21/09/2017 23:43 Interesting. More wetter here than Levels today.
Shows you that rainfall totals can verify around South Canterbury.

The area around Geraldine northwards always picks up more than than levels and other parts of south Canterbury, due to the way Canterbury bight curves plus the hunter hills pushing rain inland from about Rangitata mouth.only 550mm a year at levels as apposed to 800mm at Geraldine and 1000mm+ at mt Somers..

The last big ran event in July only 40-50mm at levels while 150mm+ at both Ashburton and Oamaru..

Oh OK. Thanks for that.

Antarctic surface temp anomaly keeps dropping, tropics still holding .....

..patiently waiting for the warm day to arrive....
currently cloudy with no wind and 11.6°C..

Warm NW wind here though and 20.1deg

Must be bush fires in Australia at the moment, sky is slightly smoky, this is the time of year they do the controlled burns off.

Nice day with a NW that became quite breezy at times this afternoon, high of 20.7deg

Cyclone Tracy wrote: ↑Sun 24/09/2017 11:07 Antarctic surface temp anomaly keeps dropping, tropics still holding .....

Hmm, quite an inbalance, that might get very interesting when conditions line up for that to normalise out somewhere.

Richard wrote: ↑Sun 24/09/2017 17:29 Must be bush fires in Australia at the moment, sky is slightly smoky, this is the time of year they do the controlled burns off.

No news of anything like that here though it could be further north ie. NSW

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote: ↑Sun 24/09/2017 21:45

Richard wrote: ↑Sun 24/09/2017 17:29 Must be bush fires in Australia at the moment, sky is slightly smoky, this is the time of year they do the controlled burns off.

No news of anything like that here though it could be further north ie. NSW

There's been a number of uncontrolled fires in NSW & Queensland.

None of the gale winds forcasted yet, been a few moderate gust though.

There are a lot of angry anvils in the Tasman at the moment. -60 to -70c cloud tops and tonne of electricity. West coast of the South Island certainly would have been loud overnight. Interesting to see how it unfolds for the north island into today and tomorrow.

Yes, something to keep an eye on tomorrow. South of Hamilton has the greatest chance of thunder i think. Frequent lightning possible in Taranaki/Waitomo.

500mb Jet Stream up to 100knots in the Tasman Sea which helps to generate the storms.

Lot of lightning last night. There was even thunder loud enough to shake the whole house. Would that particular bolt have been "positive polarity" lightning.

Yup lots of possie CG's last night, over 10 thousand lightning strikes in total in fact!

And that is what's also on NZstorm's avatar?

wembley wrote: ↑Mon 25/09/2017 09:06 Lot of lightning last night. There was even thunder loud enough to shake the whole house. Would that particular bolt have been "positive polarity" lightning.

I think you might of had inversion thunder caused by a temperature inversion. Basically it traps the thunder clap and gives the KABOOM rattle. I remember an inversion thunderstorm a while ago that set off a heap of car alarms in the neighbourhood

Some extreme winds in the Lewis pass and hamner around 10-11 this morning, not fun in a truck.

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Those storms early this morning over the South Island were elevated and so there would have been a good inversion in central Otago.

Sounds like a wild night over the South Island last night.
Really typical with it happening whilst being away.

What's going on with the models?? Bsch has lifted index instability numbers of -6 right over Canterbury at 4pm but i can't see what the big fuss is about looking at other ingredients.

Another sharp dip in the Antarctic temp anomaly. There is also a sharp dip in stratosphere temps on GFS in the next 48 hours into the mid latitudes. The earth's freezer is cranking.

Rain band inching closer to top of the North Island. A couple of isolated CG's 100 km north west of Auckland on the frontal boundary.

I think we may get some rain in Auckland.
Working in Red Beach, just finished a power shutdown and clouds are covering the area with the odd drip.
Interesting that the rain front remained West of NZ.
We were expecting the rain to start at around 11.

Another warm day with 20C max in Howick, occasional heavy showers this afternoon.