Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
I see the coming SW now to the Sw.
Some Cu development and some 'fists'
JohnGaul
NZThS
Some Cu development and some 'fists'
JohnGaul
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JohnGaul
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NZThS
- gllitz
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
Not so sure it's gonna get up to us, though, John... More than likely to be pushed out to sea, by the looks of radar and sat loops...NI a different story, though!
"Saru mo ki kara ochiru"
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
SW just rolled into town, a few good gusts but hardly a cloud in the sky. Its a dry one, be back to NW by morning
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
I am staggered how fast Hagley Park has dried out to a bone dry surface in the past weeks. I regularly run round it and its looking more like December in terms of soil conditions than August. Not a good sign at all....
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
The actual SW came through here at 1753hrs from a previous westerly. Some spectacular cloud forms with the change. but it is getting dark now.
JohnGaul
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JohnGaul
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JohnGaul
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
Some fair biffo in the S-SW change probly the best we have had in awhile, reminds me of the typical spring like southerly busters we used to get just without the thunderstorms.
Showers are just jogging along around mid-south canterbury at the moment should be here in a few hours with this very strong SWer.
Noticed some CU along the wind change line too which looked quite cool as usual.
Showers are just jogging along around mid-south canterbury at the moment should be here in a few hours with this very strong SWer.
Noticed some CU along the wind change line too which looked quite cool as usual.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
Here is a photo I took today.
EDIT: ...and another one
JohnGaul
NZThS
EDIT: ...and another one
JohnGaul
NZThS
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS
Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
I've been following this topic quite closely for the last few weeks as I'll be over there in a couple of weeks and was looking forward to some nice cold outbreaks! From my observations it seems to me that the Long Wave Trough has been a lot weaker over there in the past 3 weeks or so than it normally is with the peaks a lot less stronger but also the troughs not as deep. This can be seen in the sea level synoptics as over that period there has been an almost constant stream of moderate high pressure systems coming streaming across Australia on the 30 degree latitude line (they are well behaved highs ) resulting in the almost constant northwesterly to southwesterley flow you've been getting at your latitudes.
The good news is that this looks like it could end in a week or two with a relatively strong peak in the LWT forecast near us here in the SW of WA from the middle of next week, which will hopefully mean a week or so after that you guys should get that and will see a more 'normal' sort of winter. Of course all this could just be wishful thinking, but it would be good to see NZ with a proper winter.
The good news is that this looks like it could end in a week or two with a relatively strong peak in the LWT forecast near us here in the SW of WA from the middle of next week, which will hopefully mean a week or so after that you guys should get that and will see a more 'normal' sort of winter. Of course all this could just be wishful thinking, but it would be good to see NZ with a proper winter.
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
I noticed some typical looking CU towards south aswel, typical looking SW change coming.
Nice and warm again today with that NW flow and some nice cloud formations over the alps, had some decent speradical drops this evening to and i went outside and with the brightness of the moon i could see the clouds.
It did look quite unstable for a time.
Nice and warm again today with that NW flow and some nice cloud formations over the alps, had some decent speradical drops this evening to and i went outside and with the brightness of the moon i could see the clouds.
It did look quite unstable for a time.
Mike
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
Tim, looks like the LWT is going to start peaking southwest of the African continent and build a large upper high or very weak upper level winds across two thirds of the Indian... so from that you could say a strong cold pool could hit WA later and then force something up in the Tasman for NZ within the day. Only speculating!
Define normal!!will see a more 'normal' sort of winter
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
Had a brief shower earlier this evening in central Chch - even sounded like hail very briefly. Looks like clearing now.
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
Had 3-4 brief light showers tonight and not enough to allow a reading on the rain gauge. So technically another day without rainfall. No rain in the forecast for the next 6 days either!
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
I called it 2 weeks ago. Its spring. Winter is looooooong gone from Canterbury, I tell ya!
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
Had some very light drizzly stuff earlier but apart from that, not overly too much.
Showers forecast for tomorrow night Mark going by the MS, but then its possibly going to be the same thing as tonight.
I think winter will return in the last few weeks of August for awhile and maybe even into September, but i could be wrong.
Showers forecast for tomorrow night Mark going by the MS, but then its possibly going to be the same thing as tonight.
I think winter will return in the last few weeks of August for awhile and maybe even into September, but i could be wrong.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
A so called normal one is plenty of southwesterlies which have been absent a lot the last couple of winters,I dont mind that.
will see a more 'normal' sort of winter
Define normal!!
Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
By 'normal' I meant the normal weather we want, not the normal (note the lack of ' & ' ) weather we get.Foggy wrote:Tim, looks like the LWT is going to start peaking southwest of the African continent and build a large upper high or very weak upper level winds across two thirds of the Indian... so from that you could say a strong cold pool could hit WA later and then force something up in the Tasman for NZ within the day. Only speculating!
Define normal!!will see a more 'normal' sort of winter
Speaking of which Darwin must be getting plenty of normal weather at the moment.
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
You sure did, Razor ...It is actually becoming quite concerning with the lack of precip recently, esp. here in Canty... I don't think I have EVER had to water my lawn mid-winter (not that you should, but I think my grass is starting to grow and grass needs lots of water and fertiliser once it gets going in the Spring...at least, that's my understanding, anyway...)Razor wrote:I called it 2 weeks ago. Its spring. Winter is looooooong gone from Canterbury, I tell ya!
NONE of the models have any kind of precip for Canty on the cards anytime soon (within next 10-14 days)...yikes!
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
Another SW change through this evening with some unstable skies again, scatterd towering CU lit up by the moon.
Also some sporadic rain drops too some the size of the new 50 cent coins, so certainly some instability about.
Little bit of rain next week Glitnz but again possibly the simular set up to this week just gone.
It will be concerning if the westerly pattern keeps up, but i wouldnt think its a problem just yet as we did have alot of rain from April-mid July.
So even if some top soils are drying out there will be enough water further down to last atleast 2 months.
Also some sporadic rain drops too some the size of the new 50 cent coins, so certainly some instability about.
Little bit of rain next week Glitnz but again possibly the simular set up to this week just gone.
It will be concerning if the westerly pattern keeps up, but i wouldnt think its a problem just yet as we did have alot of rain from April-mid July.
So even if some top soils are drying out there will be enough water further down to last atleast 2 months.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
We have had no measurable rain for 14 days . Today scattered Cb's but any precipitation was isolated with lots of virga , RH got down to 32% before the southerly came in at 4pm. Quite concerning as no decent rain forecast in coming weeks , soils drying out and fire indices climbing
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
A very strong high looks as if it will dominate the whole of New Zealand for a good 5 or 6 days with the chance of a few showers about southern westland.fiordland and the far north only. Lows both sides of the high look nasty but the High is so intense at around 1038-1042hpa for most of the time period. Yes no rain in forecast for another 10 days atm, your right glitz. Just to get an idea. The last 23 days we have only had 5.8mm with 5.4mm of that falling on one day. In the last 28 days we have had just 8.6mm. We have now had 12 days without rainfall and a mean average high for August of 15.8 degrees so far! 5.2 degrees above the average. The last day of July saw a temp of 19.3 degrees so with this the average temp for the last 6 days is now 16.7 degrees. Very warm for midwinter.
Reporting Live from Southern Christchurch
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
Leighton Thomas
2014 Rainfall: Jan: 21mm Feb: 76mm March: 170mm April: 201mm YTD: 468mm
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
is normal the opposite of dazzling?Tim S wrote: By 'normal' I meant the normal weather we want, not the normal (note the lack of ' & ' ) weather we get.
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
-4C at Christchurch Airport this morning, no doubt the dry ground conditions will have helped the overnight chilling.In the last 28 days we have had just 8.6mm.
Looks like more frosty weather next week with the slow moving High depending on where cloud cover is located.
Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
quite possibly, or exciting. dazzling sounds too much like our Summers, they are far too dazzling in my opinion.Vertigo wrote:is normal the opposite of dazzling?Tim S wrote: By 'normal' I meant the normal weather we want, not the normal (note the lack of ' & ' ) weather we get.
So what would be the prevailling wind conditions for most of NZ during the winter months, is it more SW to SE? I know you'd get a lot of local variations especially on or close to the Southern Alps though. I would look up the wind roses on the web for certain localities but finding meteorological info for NZ is about as easy as spotting a cloud during summer in Perth.
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
You can get them from Climate Explorer, but there's a small cost unfortunately.
Choose "regional" or climate stations" and look at the product list.
https://secure.niwa.co.nz/climate-explorer/home.do
Choose "regional" or climate stations" and look at the product list.
https://secure.niwa.co.nz/climate-explorer/home.do
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Re: Spring like NW/SW flow from Mid July- Early August!!
A similar weather pattern to southern parts of Australia but with the odd sub tropical low moving down from the North tasman.So what would be the prevailling wind conditions for most of NZ during the winter months,
Looks like we will be stuck in a North to East flow for perhaps a couple of weeks with High preasure persisting just east of NZ