Tropical Cyclone Pam - SW Pacific

[David]

That's 150 kt in American 1 minute mean-winds - 10 minute equivalent is about 130 kt.

Oh. I thought they would be following the convention in this part of the world... guess not

[Nev]

America has always been reluctant to follow any kind of world standards…

[Manukau heads obs]

that track map from JTWC is a bit out of date...its already gone further west that what it predicts...

[David]

Vanuatu Metservice estimate central pressure is down to 904 hPa!!

[Manukau heads obs]

Port Vila, Vanuatu (circle)
is going to get a direct hit !

[Dean.]

Port Vila, Vanuatu (circle)
is going to get a direct hit !

Will be watching the webcams closely over the next few hours !

[Rogue]

Any live streaming video? Or just still images refreshing every so often?

[Dean.]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/telsat-cam6

Try this one,quite a few posted on the weatherzone forums

[bmo]

Here are a few live cams:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/telsat-cam1
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/testchanneltitle33
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/telsat-cam3
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/telsat-cam4
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/telsat-cam5
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/telsat-cam6
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/telsat-cam7

(Source: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php? ... 63&fref=nf)

[Avalanche]

Cyclone Pam keeps moving SSW whats happening here why are the models not realigning with its movement on the current satellite data. If it keeps on going this direction by the time it does turn to the south east it will be to late and on top of New Zealand. Feel for the people in Vanuatu what a horrible thing to go through. Especially with barometric pressure dropping even further this afternoon.

[Manukau heads obs]

Exactly!

[Manukau heads obs]

I dont see a recurve to the SE occuring any time soon....
I think NZ has the potential for a direct hit now

[ScottyD]

Well if it doesn't start to turn soon, New Caledonia will be getting a little twitchy.

[David]

YAY the forum is finally back!

I see Port Vila managed to escape a direct hit, but there still appears to have been a number of fatalities in Vanuatu sadly

[Manukau heads obs]

the other islands of Vanatu, eg Tanna, have had the eastern eyewall pass right over...
BOM/UKmet has it moving south to pass over east cape...which means widespread SW gales up this way

[David]

Hmmm, Weatherwatch is reporting Port Vila took a direct hit?

[Nev]

Yes, the eye just scraped past Port Vila. Absolute devastation!

At 899 hPa, TC Pam is the second most intense TC recorded in the South Pacific and Australia region since satellite technology began in 1969/70 (after TC Zoe's 890 hPa in Dec 2002), and the 4th most intense in the Southern Hemisphere.

Latest Updates…

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A26 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 13/2005 UTC 2015 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAM CENTRE [899HPA] CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.9S 169.0E AT 131800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 135 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH WELL DEFINED EYE. DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS PESISTENT. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD. PAM IS BEING STEERED
SOUTHWARDS BY A NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND FLOW. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 200HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH DG EYE AND COLD DARK GREY
SURROUND, YEILDS DT=7.0, MET=7.0,PT=6.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS.

WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (PAM) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 169.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
...
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 169.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (PAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM
NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 13-NM EYE WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND IN OVERALL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, TC 17P
REMAINS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 127 TO 140 KNOTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FIXES. TC 17P IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PRIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) NEAR TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 17P WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF DYNAMIC MODELS THROUGH TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 45 FEET.
...

[jamie]

Interesting it is still heading south and not SSW

[Dean.]

Most models had it moving SE by now

[Manukau heads obs]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... F-list.txt

[Nev]

I wonder if TC Nathan (small as it is) may have pulled Pam further west... sort of a mild Fujiwhara effect?

[ScottyD]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... F-list.txt

879

Wow!

[spwill]

Will watch with interest how it moves this afternoon.
Interesting to see the active thunderstorm activity has finished, I guess a sign the system is now in the weakening phase.

[Manukau heads obs]

Every hour that is continues to track S to SSE like it is, before recurving more SE
the closer its going to get to NZ
the way the baroclinic leaf is building south suggests to me that its going to keep on moving in the direction its going at the moment for a while yet

ps, I remember a cyclone approaching like this one way back in the late 80s and we got hail and lightning out of the blue late in the afternoon

[Manukau heads obs]

cough cough
check out the latest Fiji Met forecast track
cat 4 still going past east cape