General October Weather

[David]

Pretty strong SW out there today. Just as strong as the easterly on Monday on my weather station.

[Chris Raine]

The persistent Sc has cleared now some blue .Lawn mowing time

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

The persistent Sc has cleared now some blue .Lawn mowing time

Same here, Horrah

[tornado]

Pretty strong SW out there today. Just as strong as the easterly on Monday on my weather station.

yes a windy day today alright. saw a leaf whirlwind before. quite cool how the wind can make the leaves on the ground swirl.

[Orion]

Quite foggy here at present; 7.5°C.

[harleyb]

Very early days but it looks as though the westerlies might be getting set to make a bit of a mess of Labour Weekend. It seems that crap Labour Weekend weather is a bit of a NZ tradition, a bit like how holidaymakers up north often get hassled by an ex-TC around New Year's. Perhaps we need to shift Labour Weekend from October to February?

[Awhituobs]

yeah, labour weekend is often not the best
I think last year was one of the better ones?

[BeaconHill]

In the 90s I lived in Napier for 6 years, and almost without fail, Labour Weekend was stunning weather. I remember clearly, as I used to have friends from Wellington come visit that weekend each year, and they always complained about how hot it was! Seemed to be the time for the first 25+ deg C days of the year....

[RWood]

In the 90s I lived in Napier for 6 years, and almost without fail, Labour Weekend was stunning weather. I remember clearly, as I used to have friends from Wellington come visit that weekend each year, and they always complained about how hot it was! Seemed to be the time for the first 25+ deg C days of the year....

Not too hard to find short-term "runs" like that though … I recall a person years ago telling me about sunny warm Christmas weeks there - but who had clearly forgotten about the disastrous counterexample in December 1980.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Quite foggy here at present; 7.5°C.

Like that here this morning but it cleared away and became fine. Quite warm in the sun.

[tornado]

was cloudy and light showers here most of the day. and the highs doesnt appear to be coming directly in. theres a westerly pattern and even a few lows that will be dominating the weather in nz at the moment

[Tornado Tim]

Some recent model prognostics from both EC and GFS indicate a rather stormy outlook next week.

Note the Longwave trough currently sitting beneath Australia atm in the Himawari visible Image.

Screenshot from 2019-10-18 10-03-52.png

Subsequent polar injection is looking quite possible due to abnormal jet arrangement come Monday.

Overall early-mid next week is looking very disturbed, cold and stormy (especially in the South Island).

[Richard]

Like the sound of that Tim, cold upper air plus reasonable land heating is increasing the storm chances.

[Chris W]

Anything over this claggy/drizzly crap today, misery in the skies.

I'd say it's a result of the stratospheric vortex rebounding to the Weddell Sea, pushing that cross-ice sheet flow towards us again throughout the atmosphere. When it was towards South Africa we were more subject to that westerly/marine air source hence milder and more activity in the Tasman.

[Storm Struck]

Im not seeing the current moderate risk for up here tonight on the models, unless its a shortwave trough brushing through.
Anyway yes very changeable week next week, will see a few thunder/hail set ups for the east coast, a small risk Monday with a front crossing mid canterbury from the NW and undercutting brief SW, still remaining quite mild though.
Tuesday has been in the models consistantly for about 4 days now, with very cold upper air moving up and a late afternoon/ evening chance of storms Timaru to chch.
Id give that a generous mod-high risk given we are still a few days out, and decent sized hail too.
Thursday will be another surge to watch, plus coastal cells around BP on wednesday in a W-SW flow.
Just so happens im in chch next week .

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Rather soggy day down here and the temperature hasn't got to the double digits yet.

[NZstorm]

Napier airport up to 23C today. Gisborne and Whangarei 21C. Timaru airport high 9C with rain.

[Richard]

Damp and cool here too, made 10.6deg with 5mm of rain

[tornado]

looking like rain tonight for us upper north island. the radar shows a few red patches

[David]

Looking a bit cold next week, especially Wednesday

[Chris Raine]

The Met Service 5 day forecast indicates a front a day

[tornado]

hasnt been alot of sun in auckland lately. been so cloudy and showery at time. due to these westerlies and low pressure. I wonder when the next high will come directly to nz

[NZstorm]

hasnt been alot of sun in auckland lately. been so cloudy and showery at time. due to these westerlies and low pressure. I wonder when the next high will come directly to nz

Its been a poor month but I don't think its been as bad as October 2017 which had record low sunshine at Mangere.
GFS indicating a decent ridge for next weekend into early week.

From todays Observations Napier airport on 23C this afternoon, Whangarei and Gisborne 21C, Alexandra and Dunedin Airports 20C.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Lovely day down here today.
Might be the last as MS have forecasted a rather changeable week which may create a separate topic?

[Richard]

Lovely alright - 19deg, just swung NW in the last half hour.