General July Weather

[Bradley]

Latest EC run now has the low pressure further west which is a trend it’s been displaying so now only 10-15mm for the plains and no cold weather at all basically. Only one model run but this certainly is the same theme playing out now as what has been happening the rest of the winter with potential systems turning into fizzers…

[TonyT]

Latest EC run now has the low pressure further west which is a trend it’s been displaying so now only 10-15mm for the plains and no cold weather at all basically. Only one model run but this certainly is the same theme playing out now as what has been happening the rest of the winter with potential systems turning into fizzers…

That run is very much on the low side of the moisture spread of the EC ensemble. Conversely, the GFS run shows 120mm, which is very much on the high side of its ensemble spread. Both means are around 40-50mm. For now we wait.

[Richard]

Happy with 50mm, 120 would be better.

[mikestormchaser]

Happy with 50mm, 120 would be better.

120mm would be great, has it guess I'd say the snow levels will stay on the higher elevations and mountains. Might make for a good mountain climbe next Saturday with all the snow that will be up their by end of next week. Looking forward to spring and seeing how the thunder seasons sparks up for Canterbury and NZ as a whole.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Not quite a frost this morning despite the clear conditions but a blue dome day eventuated with a light northerly. 17.7C the maximum for today.

[Cantab03]

Yes a real pulling back for this system, could be interesting in Otago though but as per usual the models back off as we get closer to the event.

Be nice to get some action packed weather, the last 2 years have been the most boring weather I've witnessed in over 35 years in CHCH.

[Bradley]

Going by latest EC run looks around 15cm of snow 300m asl and higher for Canterbury and 15-20mm of rain for 300m asl and below and what turns out to be just a typical cold winters system for the rest of Canterbury at those lower levels. Such a shame these systems keep backing off, not sure why they always back off and and not ramp up? Shouldn’t that be a 50/50 occurrence rate

[Richard]

Be nice to get some action packed weather, the last 2 years have been the most boring weather I've witnessed in over 35 years in CHCH.

Yes agree, and we have been told repeatedly for the last 20+years that our climate will experience ever increasing extreme weather events. Instead it has become more benign at least here in Canterbury

[Bradley]

Be nice to get some action packed weather, the last 2 years have been the most boring weather I've witnessed in over 35 years in CHCH.

Yes agree, and we have been told repeatedly for the last 20+years that our climate will experience ever increasing extreme weather events. Instead it has become more benign at least here in Canterbury

I always listen with interest to the old timers talking about the huge events in 92’, the record breaking heat and wind in the 70’s plus all the huge low-level snowstorms in 45, 67, 73, 96, 02, 06’ etc and wonder when we will get one of those again

[Richard]

The one thing that the local old timers talk around here is far less spring NW wind periods.

[JP.]

Just my personal opinion but I believe in the last 10-15 years weather has been over sensationalized by the media.

[Razor]

People have short memories, some incredible at times historic level floods have occurred in Canterbury in recent years. Whilst not always widespread, and not in everyone's neighbourhood (Canterbury is a big place) the severity has certainly at least anecdotally been increasing in terms of impact, frequency and volume

Heres five I can recall just off the top of my head that affect me directly one way or another, be it home, work or play

2023 Ashburton District - the one where the Ashburton bridge nearly went again
2022 Mackenzie District- massive impacts for Omarama and other Mackenzie areas
2021 Most of Canterbury (the 1 in 200 year job)
2019 Rangitata Flood- South island literally cut in 2, we were stuck for 5 days in Geraldine
2013 "the year of floods"

[Kobi]

Their was also significant flood events in March/April 2014
And July 2022 was a big anomaly as far as rainfall goes for Christchurch, though it wasn’t 1 big rainfall, it was multiple smaller events (50-100mm) that happened week after week for like 5 weeks and amounted to the cities wettest month on record

[Bradley]

People have short memories, some incredible at times historic level floods have occurred in Canterbury in recent years. Whilst not always widespread, and not in everyone's neighbourhood (Canterbury is a big place) the severity has certainly at least anecdotally been increasing in terms of impact, frequency and volume

Heres five I can recall just off the top of my head that affect me directly one way or another, be it home, work or play

2023 Ashburton District - the one where the Ashburton bridge nearly went again
2022 Mackenzie District- massive impacts for Omarama and other Mackenzie areas
2021 Most of Canterbury (the 1 in 200 year job)
2019 Rangitata Flood- South island literally cut in 2, we were stuck for 5 days in Geraldine
2013 "the year of floods"

He specifically said "here in Canterbury" - which one of those events affected him badly in North canterbury? Clearly none of those events were historic or memorable for him. In fact also here in mid-Canterbury (West Melton) none of those events were memorable in terms of being severe or historic either although I'm sure all those snowstorms from 45-06 and the windstorm in the 70's no doubt would have been very memorable...

[Razor]

People have short memories, some incredible at times historic level floods have occurred in Canterbury in recent years. Whilst not always widespread, and not in everyone's neighbourhood (Canterbury is a big place) the severity has certainly at least anecdotally been increasing in terms of impact, frequency and volume

Heres five I can recall just off the top of my head that affect me directly one way or another, be it home, work or play

2023 Ashburton District - the one where the Ashburton bridge nearly went again
2022 Mackenzie District- massive impacts for Omarama and other Mackenzie areas
2021 Most of Canterbury (the 1 in 200 year job)
2019 Rangitata Flood- South island literally cut in 2, we were stuck for 5 days in Geraldine
2013 "the year of floods"

He specifically said "here in Canterbury" - which one of those events affected him badly in North canterbury? Clearly none of those events were historic or memorable for him. In fact also here in mid-Canterbury (West Melton) none of those events were memorable in terms of being severe or historic either although I'm sure all those snowstorms from 45-06 and the windstorm in the 70's no doubt would have been very memorable...

Note the bit in bold... I was responding to more than just Richard. Thank you.

[Cherie]

Ironically, I’m considering moving to Chch from Auckland because last year’s intense weather [rain] damn near drove me round the bend. Having said that, Auckland is having a rather dry - for Auckland - winter this year. And it’s awfully mild - May felt colder.
Hope you get some snow. Used to be a roughly annual thing to sea level most winters when I lived in various parts of the SI years back. Never seems to happen anymore!

Be nice to get some action packed weather, the last 2 years have been the most boring weather I've witnessed in over 35 years in CHCH.

Yes agree, and we have been told repeatedly for the last 20+years that our climate will experience ever increasing extreme weather events. Instead it has become more benign at least here in Canterbury

[TonyT]

99.9% of weather is ordinary and therefore forgettable. So it gets forgotten. Only the 0.1% thats interesting gets remembered. But we still have to live through the 99.9% day by day, so it feels like very little in the way of our day to day weather is interesting, compared with the weather we remember. This is a well known psychological trait of the human experience. So is the tendency to romanticise the weather (and other) experiences of our childhood.
But also bear in mind our period of record for most weather events is only a little longer than our collective memory. So it's extremely unlikely that we have experienced the more extreme events which are a "normal" or expected part of the overall range of weather events. This is why we need to be sceptical when someone says extremes are increasing. That increase is an expected consequencence of having only a partial sample of a large set of data.

[Storm Struck]

It depends on what you are talking about specifically with severe weather, as there has been plenty of memorable severe thunderstorm days in the past 10 years.

Personally I feel like there are so many variables with this system next week, which is why it's been so difficult to forecast or trust model guidance given it changes so often.
Also we have the polar jet influence which we don't know how much could potentially help enhance the weather.
Will be a wild week for sure, heavy rain at times strong winds and low but heavy snow.

Only have to look at what NSW and southern QLD have been having the past week

Brilliant last few days of weather and mild temperatures, spring bulbs starting to rear thier heads in time for Koanga.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Not quite a frost, again this morning with the same minimum reading for today as yesterday, but a fine day eventuated with a light southerly.
16.2C the maximum for today.

[Richard]

I should have been clearer in what I meant. Divide Canterbury in half, the southern half south of ChCh has continued to experience what is normal significant weather events through to resent years, which have not increased in frequency during the early 2000's, Its the northeastern part of the island north of ChCh that has seen a mostly benign long period. Trying to remember any memorable, the tornado that past Amberley 10 years or so ago being one, the Hurunui river taking out SH7 in the 90's being another. Even the Kaikoura district has seen little in the way of major rain storms which had been more common pre-1990's.

[mikestormchaser]

I should have been clearer in what I meant. Divide Canterbury in half, the southern half south of ChCh has continued to experience what is normal significant weather events through to resent years, which have not increased in frequency during the early 2000's, Its the northeastern part of the island north of ChCh that has seen a mostly benign long period. Trying to remember any memorable, the tornado that past Amberley 10 years or so ago being one, the Hurunui river taking out SH7 in the 90's being another. Even the Kaikoura district has seen little in the way of major rain storms which had been more common pre-1990's.

You will get your turn Richard. Comes in waves, I do remember that supercell that started offshore from Ashburton and went in a straight line, directly through chch and to north Canterbury as it strengthend. Their is a thread in the 2014 section of that event. 22nd of February 2014 from memory. I feel like Canterbury sees fewer big weather events however they are big when they happen, as for thunderstorms, it all depends year on year.. but there has been a trend on the thunderstorm corner area/ Mayfield NE to Ashburton and north of the waimak as of recent times.

[tich]

NZ's weather is so variable, that unusual and extreme events can easily distort averages.

Go back exactly 50 years, and the end of July 1974 saw heavy rain in the far south where our current severe weather outlook is warning of heavy rain in a few days.

https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newsp ... 740801.2.2

[petem8nz]

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[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Another fine and mild day with scattered high cloud and hardly any wind. 17.6C for today.

[spwill]

NZ's weather is so variable, that unusual and extreme events can easily distort averages.

Go back exactly 50 years, and the end of July 1974 saw heavy rain in the far south where our current severe weather outlook is warning of heavy rain in a few days.

https://paperspast.natlib.govt.nz/newsp ... 740801.2.2

1980 Otago floods were impressive, Dunedin Airport flooded and was closed for over 7 weeks. The 70s-80s saw quite a few flood events in the south.
When the Auckland January flood rainfall data gets included in the long term averages it will bump up the average rainfall numbers, Mangere received 478mm, January average is 56mm. Warkworth 551mm, January average 74mm.