General May Weather

[Manukau heads obs]

something has to happen with all this warm humid air mass
currently nearly 19C here at 10am in a light westerly
this is just weird

[spwill]

Greylynn showing an average min 13.7C -max 22.1C for the first two weeks of May.

[Manukau heads obs]

that is like December temperatures

[spwill]

I can remember some warm Winter months in Auckland, I recall June 2003 being warm for NZ.

Some thunder/ hail chances this week for Auckland with increasingly cold upper systems coming in, according to GFS.

[Manukau heads obs]

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/thunderstorm-outlook
tornadoes in the forecast again

[shovelopikis]

Have moved back home to taranaki, one thing I missed about here was the wild weather

[Manukau heads obs]

some swell models have gone all out for 9m swell for Friday/Saturday...never seen 9m in a forecast before !

[Lunar2]

For the whole kapiti coast it looks like.... interesting. Wonder where youe would be the most likely place there though I remeber a tiny one going down a suburban st in paraparaumu when I was a kid....
I was the only stupid.kid at school standing outside watching the lightning

[Rogue]

Will have my camera on me and do a local chase tomorrow arvo. Not often the west coast tornado risk extends into Kapiti, would be rude not to give it a go!

[Rogue]

There was a strong tornado that went through Waikanae a few years ago, just missed my grandfathers house, and damaged a big old tree on SH1 before dissipating at the base of the hills. There was also a good waterspout off Paekakariki in 2008. I wonder if Kapiti Island has an affect on initiation, as they both started relatively in line with each end of the island

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/photos/ ... n-Waikanae

[spwill]

some swell models have gone all out for 9m swell for Friday/Saturday...never seen 9m in a forecast before !

it will be an interesting system next weekend if it comes off, east coast rain, high country snow and thunderstorms for the north and west of NZ

[NZstorm]

There was a strong tornado that went through Waikanae a few years ago, just missed my grandfathers house, and damaged a big old tree on SH1 before dissipating at the base of the hills. There was also a good waterspout off Paekakariki in 2008. I wonder if Kapiti Island has an affect on initiation, as they both started relatively in line with each end of the island

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/photos/ ... n-Waikanae

Land features can make a difference if they cause surface winds to veer into the N or NE. Veered low level flow can be tornadic when you have unstable NW flow aloft.


I might do a lightning chase later tomorrow.

[Lunar2]

Paekak or Waikanae decisions decisions

[NZstorm]

If you run through the 500mb analysis there are set ups for lightning over the North Island every day this week accept Tuesday.

[Rogue]

Land features can make a difference if they cause surface winds to veer into the N or NE. Veered low level flow can be tornadic when you have unstable NW flow aloft.


I might do a lightning chase later tomorrow.

There were also a number of land features inland that could have caused veered surface winds, and the fact no damage was reported at Waikanae Beach makes me think it could have been these that were the trigger.

[NZstorm]

There were also a number of land features inland that could have caused veered surface winds, and the fact no damage was reported at Waikanae Beach makes me think it could have been these that were the trigger.

At the time of the event the Met Service called it a microburst rather than a tornado. And I also did a study of it and thought it could have been a microburst too. The cb would have collapsed when it moved off the warm sea.

[mikestormchaser]

Tony your farmlands/blue skies weather site hasn't updated in while. Just in case for any reason you are unaware of.

[TonyT]

Thanks Mike, but my arrangement with Farmlands has ended. I am disappointed they haven't put a notice to that effect on their site. I am working on some alternatives, but it will be a while before they are up and running.

[mikestormchaser]

Thanks Mike, but my arrangement with Farmlands has ended. I am disappointed they haven't put a notice to that effect on their site. I am working on some alternatives, but it will be a while before they are up and running.

Cool! Thanks Tony. Let us know when that is so I can save your new site on the computer.

[Richard]

I was wondering why there was no updates.

Yesterday 7mm fall in three separate showers, the last one being the S wind change which produced 3mm, up to 32mm for the month so far.

[SnwAddct]

Interesting night last night, seems we missed the bulk of it except for half a dozen flashes and some distant thunder.

On another note, looking like skifields in both Islands will pick up some snow this coming weekend. Most picked up about 5cm or less last night.

[Bradley]

Thanks Mike, but my arrangement with Farmlands has ended. I am disappointed they haven't put a notice to that effect on their site. I am working on some alternatives, but it will be a while before they are up and running.

What are your thoughts on this weekends potential wet weather Tony? ACCESS is going all out in their latest forecast with 80-100mm for Canterbury but EC only going for 20-40mm - which way do you lean? Can't wait for you to be back up an running in some format Tony, I miss your forecasts

[matttbs]

Tony have you considered posting your forecasts to your Facebook page? Like Bradley I also miss your forecasts and they would be much better than those other over hyped forecast pages..

[spwill]

Saturday looks an interesting day for Auckland at this stage , squally thunder and hail storms.

[TonyT]

Thanks Mike, but my arrangement with Farmlands has ended. I am disappointed they haven't put a notice to that effect on their site. I am working on some alternatives, but it will be a while before they are up and running.

What are your thoughts on this weekends potential wet weather Tony? ACCESS is going all out in their latest forecast with 80-100mm for Canterbury but EC only going for 20-40mm - which way do you lean? Can't wait for you to be back up an running in some format Tony, I miss your forecasts

Thank you for your kind words. If you are an ATS member then they are still accessible there. For this weekend I wouldn't see it as much of a big storm. Perhaps 15-20mm for Chch and the eastern Plains, maybe double that for the western Plains and foothills. More of a North and Mid Canty event, not so much for the south. Snow to 700m as it doesnt look particularly cold. Winds could be interesting if a depression centre spins up east of Cook Strait as some models are predicting. Several days of gales for Wellington looks possible, maybe Kaikoura also.