General December Weather

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Tornado Tim
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Just update to include a moderate risk of severe storms containing heavy rain over the central north island.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has now been issued as a result.
Thunderstorm Outlook:
Metservice wrote:Amended at 12:25pm to include all of Taranaki in the moderate risk area.

Daytime heating, low level moisture and sea breeze convergence is expected to generate showers in many inland areas, especially the south and central North Island and the upper South Island. Some of these will be heavy, with a moderate risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening about inland parts of Buller, Nelson, Marlborough and the far north of the Canterbury high country as well as over the much of central North Island high country extending south to the Tararua Range and also Taranaki as indicated on the map. There is a high risk of thunderstorms about the west of the central North Island high country,Taumarunui and Taihape and parts of Taupo, Waitomo, Taranaki and Wanganui as indicated.

These thunderstorms are expected to be slow moving and hence are likely to produce localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour. There is also a low risk that one or two of the thunderstorms over the upper South Island will become SEVERE with producing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in the high risk area over the North Island becoming SEVERE, producing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour. Rainfall of this intensity can cause localised surface and/or flash flooding as well as make driving conditions hazardous. A watch for severe thunderstorms has been issued.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected elsewhere.
756c-14a94a13300-14a95eaca00-14a93379113.0.png
Thunderstorm Watch:
Metservice wrote: Issued by MetService at Midday Monday 29 December 2014
Valid until 10:00 pm Monday 29 December 2014
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Waitomo
Taumarunui
Taupo
Taranaki
Taihape
Wanganui

Intense slow moving thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon but weaken later this evening. These storms are likely to be slow moving and could produce localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour.

Rainfall of this intensity can cause flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

This watch will be updated by: 10:00 pm Monday 29 December 2014
7599-14a931fc320-2263b60-14a931fc320.0.png
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Tornado Tim
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Latest GFS run has the moisture coming a bit further north, might get a storm here later on this arvo.
Dew points are very healthy atm at 18*C atm with Temps at 24*C+

Upper Level flow at 700mb being SE and SFC being from the NE bringing in the moisture (once the Sea-Breeze comes in).

If storms produce today it looks like the Central Waikato will get NW to North Progressing convergence line. That will have the highest chance on the Sea-Breeze mesoscale cold front.

Will keep an eye out this arvo...
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Captain Salty wrote:I notice that afternoon convection is quite common in that upper south island area. What are the factors there?
Elevation is a very big factor.

Storms now occurring over central North Island south of Taupo

Have had great holiday weather in Auckland lately, none of those showers mentioned in the forecast have occurred around here.
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General December Weather

Unread post by jamie »

Eastern sea breeze has just kicked in here. And so now to my west I have darkening bases. Must be the convergence of the two sea breezes
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

jamie wrote:Eastern sea breeze has just kicked in here. And so now to my west I have darkening bases. Must be the convergence of the two sea breezes
You still look like your Northerly Jamie, as am I atm.... I dont think it has come in yet...
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General December Weather

Unread post by jamie »

That storm in the central NI is incredible. Hasn't moved and has kept intensity for hours on end. There will be a lot of rain falling for large areas.
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General December Weather

Unread post by jamie »

It was easterly for a bit but has swing around to the north again.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

The gfs has been signaling those North Island storms for the last 7 days so great to see the model performing.

Clear skies here in Wanaka.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Warm day with 29deg max and a NE wind.

Looking north towards the storms past Hanmer Springs
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General December Weather

Unread post by jamie »

Sea breeze from the west kicked in around 7. Straight away we started to see convergence. Convergence right over me ATM with sporadic large drops falling. Decent rain not far from here.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Convergence line about to blow out west :)
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General December Weather

Unread post by jamie »

Taihape getting a very decent storm by the looks of the radar.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Orion »

Northerly wind strengthened here in past hour or so, bringing some low cloud.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Decided to drive to Hanmer Springs to catch a storm that had developed to the west of the town.
Hanmer Chase 004.JPG


Got there in time as it moved east over the town

Hanmer Chase 012.JPG
Hanmer Chase 013.JPG
Saw at least 10 lightning strikes including this one
hamner2.png
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nice capture :smile:
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Thanks John,wasn't till i managed to get a single shot of it that in realized that it had hit the hill behind the town
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Nev »

jamie wrote:That storm in the central NI is incredible. Hasn't moved and has kept intensity for hours on end. There will be a lot of rain falling for large areas.
Shame there aren't more online rain-gauges in that Ruapehu district/area. Note though that MS's Taupo gauge recorded 10mm yesterday evening, while the airport just 6-7km down the road barely recorded a trace.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Well done Richard.
I considered a chase south of here yesterday but decided the Taupo region was a little out of my range given the holiday traffic and time spent in the car on such a lovely day.

The weather for the first week of January is looking mostly good around NZ.
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Orion »

Looks like a day well-spent, Richard _b
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Dale »

Hey good stuff Richard.. you spent the time & effort to get out there and catch what you did, instead of being a numpty armchair chaser.. kudos!
Late afternoon you could see plenty of build-ups over the alps and towards the north.. looked good!

Muggy as hell here this morning, didn't drop below 20 inside the house all night and that was with it wide open..
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Good to see you got out Richard! :)
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by David »

Yet another stunning day here. Making up for the poor sunshine totals earlier this month 8)
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Orion wrote:Looks like a day well-spent, Richard _b
It was worth it too,took my 13 YO daughter and she loved it as there's nothing like the deep rumbles in around mountains ,didn't leave home till 6.45pm.

NW wind is back again,so maybe wont be as warm as yesterday's 29deg ,currently on 27deg
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by spwill »

A storm chase to Taupo yesterday would have been well rewarded but it a 3-4 hr trip each way this time of year.
Had a well spent day a Tawharanui :smile:

Temperature/ sunshine recovering well here after some unsettled weather mid month
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Re: General December Weather

Unread post by Nev »

I see Timaru Aero's 31.3C after 4pm yesterday made it both MS's hottest and coldest town/city yesterday, with a range of 23.8C from 7.5C earlier that morn.
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