NZ Weather Forum

I see Met Service have 7m swell forecasted for west coast for saturday
Looking like going to be the biggest swell event for years
(due to the long lasting low and long fetch )

That will help cool down the waters in the Tasman Sea

In saying all that though EC's latest run has doubled the rain amounts with 100mm for the foothills around Springfield and Sheffield and around 30mm for Christchurch...1.5m of snow for Mt Hutt as well from Friday to Monday!!

Enormous swell for NI west coast this weekend by the looks of things. We have a bach at Tongaporutu (near Mokau) so I'm going up on Thursday night to see the action over Friday and especially Saturday. If this forecast holds up it will be a major event. Anything that involves strong onshore winds, a big swell, a river flood and spring tides is usually interesting there and it looks as though this time we could get the lot coinciding together... the spring tides are not extreme, but all the other elements look promising. I'm expecting a visit from the firewood fairy (who leaves driftwood all over the front lawn for us to pick through).

Latest EC run has gone ballistic with 150mm from sat-mon for mid canty foothills and around 50mm for Christchurch in that same period

Bradley wrote:Latest EC run has gone ballistic with 150mm from sat-mon for mid canty foothills and around 50mm for Christchurch in that same period

Yes, its looking a little more intense now. I'd still favour lesser amounts than the model is currently giving, but temps are not cold so the moisture is probably available so a decent rain over multiple days is possible. It will be more like a March/April storm than a June one.

Thats good news as we dont want it too cold to slow down any grass growth resulting from this rain maker.

Hopefully good for our ski fields.

spwill wrote:Hopefully good for our ski fields.

I'm thinking Mt Hutt could get close to a meter from this. A prolonged period of 2-3 days of an onshore SSE flow. With the snow level looking about 800-900m at the moment, maybe 700m in heavier precip.

Looks like Mt Hutt and Mt Lyford will do the best this weekend with totals of up to 1m which would set things up very nicely. Ruapehu looks set to get a good snowfall too, perhaps 40-50 cm

Noticed some unstable skies coming home against the fading light, breezy SW through here with a brief shower and a hint of tiny hail stones.
Also spotted a lightning flash towards Banks Penninsula, it looks like outer Akaroa heads just got a decent hail belt.

CantyWX wrote: I'm thinking Mt Hutt could get close to a meter from this. A prolonged period of 2-3 days of an onshore SSE flow. With the snow level looking about 800-900m at the moment, maybe 700m in heavier precip.

The latest gfs run would suggest possible down to as low as 400m on Monday night with the heavy bursts

Storm Struck wrote:Noticed some unstable skies coming home against the fading light, breezy SW through here with a brief shower and a hint of tiny hail stones.
Also spotted a lightning flash towards Banks Penninsula, it looks like outer Akaroa heads just got a decent hail belt.

Just had a phone call from Bob Crowder to report some thunder and a bit of a heavy shower over his place.
He said that his friend from Akaroa reported some lightning activity this evening, off Banks Peninsula.

SnwAddct wrote:

CantyWX wrote: I'm thinking Mt Hutt could get close to a meter from this. A prolonged period of 2-3 days of an onshore SSE flow. With the snow level looking about 800-900m at the moment, maybe 700m in heavier precip.

The latest gfs run would suggest possible down to as low as 400m on Monday night with the heavy bursts

Yes i see that, just home from work and looks as if the THK has dropped down to about 531... that's good for settling to about 600m, and 400m flurries in heavy bursts as you say!

models are hinting at a deep low to cross over the NI on saturday...could be severe gales with that

Metservice has really backed off on the ChCh forecast, only occasional showers forecast over the weekend.

We could have done with that rain. Still, when you see the rain symbol for chc on metservice you know its wrong for it never ever rains all day in chc.

Does Christchurch have the most boring weather in New Zealand. Discuss. Yes !!

At the moment Canterbury is just so frustrating, lost count how many times over the last year or so where the models predict decent rains two of three days out only to fizz out on the day, Sunday to Tuesday coming now looks to be yet another example.

ndoa wrote:Does Christchurch have the most boring weather in New Zealand. Discuss. Yes !!

No, the weather is so lovely here

This May is looking like not only ending up with the highest ever average maximum for but also the highest ever average minimum as well, 1998 was the only year to have recorded both and even then the minimum temp was a tie with 1974 so it didn't do it outright. What an amazing month this will end up being, not only for Canterbury but for New Zealand as a whole!

Yes, it will be an interesting month as we approach winter.
As I said, initially, from the 16th, the weather should change from basically settled weather patterns to a more versatile scenario as the upsurges from the southern oceans kick in.

Bradley wrote:This May is looking like not only ending up with the highest ever average maximum for but also the highest ever average minimum as well, 1998 was the only year to have recorded both and even then the minimum temp was a tie with 1974 so it didn't do it outright. What an amazing month this will end up being, not only for Canterbury but for New Zealand as a whole!

Not sure what you've based those figures on, but it certainly can't be Chch Aero, as its 1998 mean T-max of 15.0C and T-min of 5.1C were nowhere near records at the time, and its 1974 mean T-max of 13.6C and T-min of 3.8C were actually both below normal. For the record:

Christchurch Aero - highest May mean T-maxs
17.3C - 2007
16.7C - 1999
16.3C - 1990 & 2015

Christchurch Aero - highest May mean T-mins
6.8C - 1962
6.5C - 2011
5.9C - 1968 & 1971

canterbury, and further north, should get some good rain over the coming week by the looks

Nev wrote:

Bradley wrote:This May is looking like not only ending up with the highest ever average maximum for but also the highest ever average minimum as well, 1998 was the only year to have recorded both and even then the minimum temp was a tie with 1974 so it didn't do it outright. What an amazing month this will end up being, not only for Canterbury but for New Zealand as a whole!

Not sure what you've based those figures on, but it certainly can't be Chch Aero, as its 1998 mean T-max of 15.0C and T-min of 5.1C were nowhere near records at the time, and its 1974 mean T-max of 13.6C and T-min of 3.8C were actually both below normal. For the record:

Christchurch Aero - highest May mean T-maxs
17.3C - 2007
16.7C - 1999
16.3C - 1990 & 2015

Christchurch Aero - highest May mean T-mins
6.8C - 1962
6.5C - 2011
5.9C - 1968 & 1971

I was referring to February 1998 being the only month which has the record for both the highest average maximum AND highest average min as well