Interestingly todays thunderstorm activity over the central North Island occured under quite a high barometer 1023hpa. The central North Island has quite good exposure to moisture coming in from the north, hence such high barometer thunderstorms are possible. This summer has been exceptionally quiet though for inland storms over the North Island. Maybe February might be more interesting.
Looks like Isolated afternoon cb/thunder are possible today (Wednesday) over the Waikato in responce to strong surface heating, moist low level air and the chance of convergence from the western coast sea breeze.
They will have to be very isolated today NZstorm, just showers I think, the barometer is too high today.
Barometer is about the same as yesterday but the ridge will strengthen today. I don't see any change in upper air temps today apart from the ridge introducing an inversion across the area. Having said that, the NE flow over the region is likely to converge with an afternoon sea breeze off the west coast, coupled with high dewpoints and reasonably high temps, convection looks quite possible. If showers do manage to develop, thunder is likely.
Humid Easterlies and sunny here, should be a very warm day over West Auckland with the chance of convergence showers there later as the West Coast sea breeze is likely to develop.
Today and yesterday, the conditions here are slighty different (and could effect Cb growth precisely)
Cloudier and there is a easterly breeze where there was next to nothing yesterday.
Off to the cricket shortly, certain it will become clear & sunny, no downpours
Foggy Hamilton wrote:Isolated showers likely for Auckland this arvo however.
lets hope eh foggy, clouds look quite flat and rubbishy at the mo.
But who knows, like last nite out west (where it is of course, best) we had some real nice brassica's forming late arvo, and these generated some low intensity but big rain drop style showers out my way. The tops on them looked so defined as well.
Yes, easterly too strong for any opposing sea breeze to form. Also, the dewpoints are down a bit, so I'm flagging away the thunderstorm risk for the Waikato. Higher dewpoint air should come in end of week.
I see a Thunderstorm has developed over the central North Island this afternoon. Taupo would be a good place to view it.
Or Kapiti. TV1 Weather reported from there yesterday, showing how lovely and sunny it was there. No mention of storms in central NI, but one could plainly see the cbs in the background, well to the north.
I see a Thunderstorm has developed over the central North Island this afternoon. Taupo would be a good place to view it.
Or Kapiti. TV1 Weather reported from there yesterday, showing how lovely and sunny it was there. No mention of storms in central NI, but one could plainly see the cbs in the background, well to the north.
tich wrote:
Or Kapiti. TV1 Weather reported from there yesterday, showing how lovely and sunny it was there. No mention of storms in central NI, but one could plainly see the cbs in the background, well to the north.
mentioned
You can often see them from W'gton city as well, esp. from higher ground.
The environment looks marginal for isolated afternoon thunderstorms in central Otago today. High afternoon temperatures with increasing moisture provide a low risk of Isolated severe convective storms.
Yes Steven, it looks interesting. I'm thinking this possible storm situation could continue until Sunday as it looks like it'll be NE for a bit, with good inland temps it could happen. The NE flow is changing I think from pseudo Southerlies to more of a NE flow originating from further north so moisture should increase a bit. AVN has ok CAPE and LI firgures for even inland Canterbury toady but Otago does look the better choice. The 28th could see storms form in inland Canterbury and inland Nelson (inland Nelson looks a bit more promissing) I'm thinking at this point to, also inland Otago because of good heating. Inland, Inland, Inland....marvolous! But risks are all low except Saturday I would possible put at medium risk for the inland Nelson area.
Actually, just a couple of days ago Steven you mentioned that storms can happen in the inland south Island areas when a departing high moves off funneling a NE with moisture into the island. Well, this situation looks to be upon us! Upper air should get a bit colder as the weekend comes onto us and there is some opertunity for something to happen, 500mb temps -15 / maybe -16 if we're lucky.
I'm also reminded of the time last year around the 12th/12th December when you got those great Waikato storms. What was the 500mb temps then? That was similar was it not in that there was a departing ridge?
I can see some small cloud build ups over the plains from here but I dont think they will eventuate into anything.
Just to note on the NE wind it manged to reach 26dg here the other day with a NE wind and that wasn't a NW day with warmer inland temperatures either like it usually does.
Looks like a Typhoon or even a cyclone on the 1pm sattelite from met service well It looks abit like one and you can see the TS over Australia.
Cheers
JASON TIPPET.
You can often see them from W'gton city as well, esp. from higher ground.
Do you live in one of Wellington's hill suburbs RWood? I imagine the Tararuas could block any view of storms far-off to the north, but if you're living, say in Karori, you may be more likely to see them. From near Chch one can see distant storms in the Mackenzie Country, and looking south or southwest from Banks Peninsula, if you can spot a distant cb, it might've been one that has been over Dunedin.
You can often see them from W'gton city as well, esp. from higher ground.
Do you live in one of Wellington's hill suburbs RWood? I imagine the Tararuas could block any view of storms far-off to the north, but if you're living, say in Karori, you may be more likely to see them. From near Chch one can see distant storms in the Mackenzie Country, and looking south or southwest from Banks Peninsula, if you can spot a distant cb, it might've been one that has been over Dunedin.
Not really (lower Kelburn), but even going past Met. Office Kelburn at alt. of about 125m one can see stuff in general direction of Wairarapa or Kapiti Coast. From higher ground like Wright's hill or the Brooklyn wind turbine the views are more extensive, especially to the S and SW.
As of right now the skies appear to be cloudless here.
About -10C from memory. But surface dewpoints were upto 20C with afternoon temperatures to 30C.
500mb temps -15 / maybe -16 if we're lucky
Invercargill has -14C at 500mb today.
Precipitable water though was just 15mm. Thats a very dry sounding.
But I notice surface dewpoints along the Otago coast are 15-16C. So any cb development in the next few days will be reliant on the moist coastal air being carted inland in sufficient quantities to stimulate convection.
Sorry, models say -15 to possibly -16 500mb temps this Sunday (I should have specified). Yes, today wasn't that cold upstairs but getting a bit colder.
-10 back then, yes....with those high dewpoints and surface temps it makes things possible. Would've been great storms to go after.
Some buildups managed to pop up inland but there wasn't much height to them.
