MetService is going for rain and snow to low levels in the east of the South Island this weekend, but the latest models don't seem to support that outlook. Though an icy blast for the lower SI looks likely on Friday.
Perhaps a weak trough over the South Island at the weekend, some East coast precipitation and with cold air in place some snowfall on the hills though I see Met Service have Highs of 8 - 9C for Chch & Dud this weekend, too warm for snow to low levels.
MetService is going for rain and snow to low levels in the east of the South Island this weekend, but the latest models don't seem to support that outlook. Though an icy blast for the lower SI looks likely on Friday.
Perhaps a weak trough over the South Island at the weekend, some East coast precipitation and with cold air in place some snowfall on the hills though I see Met Service have Highs of 8 - 9C for Chch & Dud this weekend, too warm for snow to low levels.
It's raining in Omarama...I'd almost forgotten what that was like.
The models seem to show anticyclonic or east/northeasterlies over Canterbury - maybe cold enough (esp if residual cold air lingers over the SI), but unlikely to be moist enough to deliver more than some drizzle or light showers to the coast.
On the other hand, prognoses tend to favour more cyclonic conditions over NZ early next week, with possibility of low-level warm advection snow in SI.
03 Stormchaser wrote:
On that note, Does anyone now what models they look at??
I think it's ECMWF, coupled with their own MM5 or similar.
tonyt, what do you use?
I believe Metservice makes use of the UK Met Office model, which isnt widely available on the net AFAIK.
We use whatever we can get our hands on but I think the GFS performs pretty well for days 3-12 if you know how to take account of some of its deficiencies. I think the key is remember that any model doesnt actually know what the weather is going to do, so treat them all with scepticism, and try to interpret what the model is trying to tell you, rather than treat them as the whole story.
I think this is a "wait n see End of Week Wintry Blast". Different forecasts all over the show with varying heights on snowfall.
I think I will just say I will see flurries across the valley as the heatpump quietly whirls in the background and the cats doze in the centre of the couch.
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
Latest MetService outlook now suggests the east of the South Island should be more settled this weekend, with only patchy drizzle in coastal Canterbury and showers in coastal Malborough. I have noticed a discepancy (and not for the first time) between the short long-range forecasts on the internet and the 12.30 National Radio forecast. For example, the short forecast has snow flurries to low levels in the northeast of the South Island on Sunday, while the radio didn't mention that. Nat. radio's forecast also predicted snow to low levels on the eastern NI ranges this weekend (but not in Taihape/Desert Road), while the short forecast just mentioned snow for the southern NI ranges on Saturday.
All in all, however, it looks like an interesting weekend for the NI, weather depending on where the low from the west decides to move . (not easy to predict)
I think this is a "wait n see End of Week Wintry Blast". Different forecasts all over the show with varying heights on snowfall.
I think I will just say I will see flurries across the valley as the heatpump quietly whirls in the background and the cats doze in the centre of the couch.
Quite possibly snowing to low levels in Fiordland (Milford Sound 2C at Noon with 0.4mm recent precip), but probably not elsewhere yet in the south, as Noon temps look too high. However must've been a mean frost down there this morning - even Nugget Point (on an exposed promontory I guess) registered below 0C at 6AM.
tich wrote:However must've been a mean frost down there this morning - even Nugget Point (on an exposed promontory I guess) registered below 0C at 6AM.
I'll probably rate that as my best ground frost in this suburb since I arrived 3.5 years ago. Not as frosty on the flat as I have seen though. Quite dry also. I think the MetService obs were -6C (most likely the Airport on the Taieri).
Front kicked in about 2pm. Not much moisture in it, maybe more too come after dark but I don't think so. Currently 2.9C
There is no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothes.
Foggy Hamilton wrote:
ECMWF is suggesting this also, but a SW flow and high extends only to the WA border.
MRF likewise, but a very cold S/SE flow.
Foggy the ECMWF and MRF (correct term ECMRF) are both the same thing!
MRF is the name of the old model run by NOAA for medium range, now superceded by the GFS. I dont belive the MRF model is actually running any more, so any output still labelled as MRF is probably GFS output.
03 Stormchaser wrote:
Foggy the ECMWF and MRF (correct term ECMRF) are both the same thing!
MRF is the name of the old model run by NOAA for medium range, now superceded by the GFS. I dont belive the MRF model is actually running any more, so any output still labelled as MRF is probably GFS output.
hmmmmm, I thought AVN was superceded by GFS?
03stormchaser, how come on the Unisys weather page, ECMWF and MRF show different forecasts for Europe on there?
Oh yes, TonyT... I found UKMO data output for NZ!
They look very MetServicey
AVN was the H0-72 model, MRF was the H0-240 model, now there are two versions of the GFS model run H0-84 and H0-360 I think. Interestingly the name GFS was used when the AVN and MRF models were still running to cover the general distribution of forecast material, now its become the name of the model itself.
Well done for finding the UKMO maps. I hadnt see those before. Probably wont use them though, dont want our forecasts ending up identical to MetService
AVN was the H0-72 model, MRF was the H0-240 model, now there are two versions of the GFS model run H0-84 and H0-360 I think. Interestingly the name GFS was used when the AVN and MRF models were still running to cover the general distribution of forecast material, now its become the name of the model itself.
Well done for finding the UKMO maps. I hadnt see those before. Probably wont use them though, dont want our forecasts ending up identical to MetService
TonyT wrote:AVN was the H0-72 model, MRF was the H0-240 model, now there are two versions of the GFS model run H0-84 and H0-360 I think. Interestingly the name GFS was used when the AVN and MRF models were still running to cover the general distribution of forecast material, now its become the name of the model itself.
Well done for finding the UKMO maps. I hadnt see those before. Probably wont use them though, dont want our forecasts ending up identical to MetService
When I read your post, I kept thinking of that Sesame Street alphabet song.
but I think the GFS performs pretty well for days 3-12 if you know how to take account of some of its deficiencies. I think the key is remember that any model doesnt actually know what the weather is going to do, so treat them all with scepticism, and try to interpret what the model is trying to tell you, rather than treat them as the whole story.
