The Next Trough

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 06/04/2006 20:39

tich wrote:
Storms possibly coming from the ones I've experienced in northern NSW.

I witnessed spectacular activity from Byron Bay yesterday afternoon. A cb built up well to the west in afternoon, and beaceme much bigger by about 3-4pm. I was walking around the heads when I started to see massive bolts of lightning to the west, plus some sheet lightning. The storm moved closer as I quickly went back to where I was staying - I got there 10 minutes before the heavens open! (about 5pm) Some strikes were rather close by then. After an hour or so, the rain was lighter, and cleared in another hour or so, but there was still an amazing lightshow offshore. Another thunderstorm with heavy rain hit just before dawn, clearing up but about 10am.

There was also a short downpour in Nimbin about 3.45 this afternoon, but I didn't notice any thunder or lightning. (no I wasn't wasted on any substances)

We were in Byron and S. Queensland in Aug-Sep for 2 weeks in both 2003 & 2004 - normally glorious weather at the end of "winter". First trip had plenty of fine weather but on the last night there was a (forecast) period of 3-4 hours with sustained winds of about 70kph, affecting the eastern parts of NSW and Vic. Very little rain with it however. In 2004 there had been a very long period of dry sunny weather and we got 12 straight days of blue skies. Visitor pressure is much less at that time (just before the Aust. school holidays, which any sensible person would avoid). The hill country near Mullumbimby was most attractive, with nice views.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 06/04/2006 21:33

This trough although deep is rather "Dry" for Eastern regions so the thunder alert for Canterbury of 1 is now cancelled.
Maybe I should put out an alert system like what MetService does?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Thu 06/04/2006 21:46

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:This trough although deep is rather "Dry" for Eastern regions so the thunder alert for Canterbury of 1 is now cancelled.
Maybe I should put out an alert system like what MetService does?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Will your alert be more precise than MS?

Manukau heads obs · Thu 06/04/2006 22:21

raining at kaitai, i see
NE increasing there too
baro dropping here, not fast yet though

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Thu 06/04/2006 22:21

Matt Townsend wrote:Hey guys, i got storm reports from Tuesday night!
http://www.freewebs.com/mattweather/4th ... ercell.htm

any comments on this?

Matt

Nice pictures Matt but umm the report write up to be honest appauling

But then again

iam alot older than you and my writing skills are much better then yours.
Cheers
Jason.

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 06/04/2006 22:48

Jasestrm wrote:
to be honest appauling But then again iam alot older than you and my writing skills are much better then yours.
Cheers
Jason.

"appauling"???? - how about Appetering?

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Thu 06/04/2006 23:16

Flutterbye wrote:
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:This trough although deep is rather "Dry" for Eastern regions so the thunder alert for Canterbury of 1 is now cancelled.
Maybe I should put out an alert system like what MetService does?

JohnGaul
NZTS
Will your alert be more precise than MS?

probably not...but I have been onto it sometimes before MS, which now have a good thunderstorm forecast predictability regime now in play.
Better than mine. Mind you, my TS forecasts are for the Canterbury area.
I haven't worked on any other areas of NZ.
Western areas the predictability of thunderstorms are much higher than Canterbury and should be easier to forecast, so I don't bother with them
Auckland and Hamilton, I leave these areas to people like NZ Storm and Foggy from Hamilton and Brian Hamilton for reports?

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Fri 07/04/2006 06:50

good moaning
the most acive part of the front rotated down around the low....and left bugger all behind up this way
bit a suden baro drop, some neavy rain, and wind gusts to 34 knots, but that was it, around 2am
just drizzle and low cloud here at the moment
we will have to wait for the next swing about of shower activity around the top of the low, up this way, for more action

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 07/04/2006 08:33

Yep a big fizzer here. I really can't see anything exciting coming for the upper north in the next week or two

Manukau heads obs · Fri 07/04/2006 08:47

wind gone NNW here , with a temperature rise

getting a squally shower now

once this low does a LOOP around it will then move NE towards central NZ, and all that cold air coming up around the top of it will give lots of thunderstorms and squally conditions to the NI...you wait and see

or it might be a fizzer again (as the central tasman is where the lows are most active at the moment and then they are weakining alot as they move onto NZ...at the moment)

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Fri 07/04/2006 09:06

Manukau heads observer wrote:wind gone NNW here , with a temperature rise

getting a squally shower now

once this low does a LOOP around it will then move NE towards central NZ, and all that cold air coming up around the top of it will give lots of thunderstorms and squally conditions to the NI...you wait and see
or it might be a fizzer again (as the central tasman is where the lows are most active at the moment and then they are weakining alot as they move onto NZ...at the moment)

Sitting on the fence then huh?

spike_01 · Unread post by **spike_01** » Fri 07/04/2006 10:30

Has been absolutely persisting down here this morning...

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Fri 07/04/2006 14:19

Thunderstorms quite active right across the West Coast SI now.. and have some moving onto Taranaki soon

Manukau heads obs · Fri 07/04/2006 15:50

hope the garden variety ones (see that on the met service site!) come up this way to give us something....
there are some half decent showers developing in the north tasman that we should get up this way?

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 07/04/2006 16:07

That will arrive when the high starts ridging and remains stationary in the Tasman with SW Gales

Manukau heads observer wrote:hope the garden variety ones (see that on the met service site!) come up this way to give us something....
there are some half decent showers developing in the north tasman that we should get up this way?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 07/04/2006 20:43

Shud get the odd heavy shower in the Auckland area over the next couple of days. Already had a couple here this evening. Looks like most of the thunder potential is south of Taranaki. Something thundery might come our way by Monday.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 08/04/2006 08:30

been some heavy squally showers here this morning, gusts to 46 kts on the coast in the squalls

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 08/04/2006 09:55

Low cloud, light rain/drizzle, light winds and fresh snow in the Mackenzie.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 08/04/2006 10:00

There was some thunderstorm over South Otago yesterday afternoon and I see Met Service forecasting the same again today. Interesting to see a bit of 'summer type' activity in April down there.

I think 'east of the alps storms' are more likley tomorrow with a chance of Isolated thunderstorms/hail developing in Canterbury tomorrow as well.

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 08/04/2006 10:17

I like te way you Think NZstorm but just at the moment

.
Thats why the gusty westerly wind is so cool and not dry and warm I was thinking there's not much snow on the alps to actually mke it cool but if there's snow in the mckensie anything is possible.
Typical anvil shower belts to the west some ranging relativly close to here also manged to see few blinks to the west last night.
Cheers
Jason.

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sat 08/04/2006 10:17

11mm since midnight here from heavy showers.. fine now but shallow Cb's on the southwestern horizon.

It's nice to have this weather back

Too bad tonight's night glow will be cancelled

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 08/04/2006 10:27

NZstorm wrote:Interesting to see a bit of 'summer type' activity in April down there.

Not too summery in the Mackenzie right now.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Sat 08/04/2006 10:29

Aaron and I popped over to Hokitika last night and saw very infrequent lightning from a number of squally thunderstorms both inland and out to sea. Usually only one flash every five minutes

The guy at the Caltex servo said there had been hail north of the town (probably about 7:30) and one of the storms had some small hail in the heavy rain.

It was still worth the trip even though we didn't manage to record very much. Here's a video still frame of the best CG we saw looking inland from Sunset Point towards the bridge over the river.

Gary Roberts · Unread post by **Gary Roberts** » Sat 08/04/2006 10:44

Steven Graham wrote:Aaron and I popped over to Hokitika last night and saw very infrequent lightning...

Yep, just the odd flash visible from Omarama last night.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 08/04/2006 11:33

Nice photo there Steven.

There's a fresh crop of Cb clouds brewing in the Western Tasman now, could be a good lightning show on the West Coast/Alps tonight.

Looks like some cold unstable air onto Eastern SI monday.