Dangerous twin low pressures and scattered severe weather EC

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Sun 21/05/2006 22:07

Yes we have, there is alot of RFB clouds with small thunderstorm located NW of here, anyway the jet stream had flow in with beauiful sunset structures!

So i had looked throught the forecasts and i assume that BOM and WZ forecasts are not predicting this rain event at all. Anyway i thinked that NE NSW and SE QLD would get worst affecting area of this low pressure system forming off our coast and there is forecastinf sites that really agreed each others!
http://www.weather.com.au/nsw/ballina
http://myforecast.com/bin/expanded_fore ... tric=false

Note: That site is still unpredictable in accurrency of thier forecasts symbols.

By LAPS MSLPS forecast charts, it shows a strong trough line off the coast which it would bring heavy rain and gales along the coastline.

By GFS forecast charts a little agreed that the low pressure will form NE NSW and SE QLD coasts by Wednesday and Thursday, as it seen to be more severe which it could bring high winds and widespread flooding in these days. I have a 50% chance to say the winds would be high and flash floodings too.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/tw ... lp&hour=-1

Looking very interesting for us anyway i hope it comes off!

And QLD BOM said:
IDQ1070002
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
The combination of the large high near New Zealand and a large high moving
slowly eastwards across the Great Australian Bight will continue to drive fresh
SE winds and a few showers onto most of the Queensland east coast until early
next week, and even further ahead along the north tropical coast.
A complex and high amplitude upper pattern will evolve over eastern Australia
over the first few days of next week, ensuring a lot of uncertainty in the
forecasts and resulting weather. Most of the uncertainty revolves around the
interaction between a strong upper trough over southeastern Australia, and a
second upper trough currently located over central eastern WA. This central
Australian trough will be the main feature to affect the weather over central
and southeastern Queensland in the coming few days, but its speed of eastward
progression and amplitude are both highly uncertain at present. However broadly
speaking, it is likely that this trough will spread cloudy conditions and some
patchy rain across most central areas and the southeast corner of the state,
with this weather most likely clearing the east coast sometime on Wednesday. The
possibility of some moderate falls with the progression of this cloudband
remains in place, although it appears less likely in the southeast corner.
These upper troughs will eventually affect the development of strong surface
pressure systems, and the most likely scenario is as follows. A surface low will
develop over the southwest Tasman Sea on Monday then move slowly eastwards with
a deep trough and possibly a secondary surface low developing off the southern
Queensland coast on Wednesday. The secondary low is likely to strengthen SE
winds and maintain showery conditions along the southern coast until at least
Friday.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 22/05/2006 09:54

Surely there must be some Australian forums where you can post this stuff and have it discussed by people who are actually interested in it?

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 22/05/2006 10:06

TonyT wrote:Surely there must be some Australian forums where you can post this stuff and have it discussed by people who are actually interested in it?

[=D>]

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Mon 22/05/2006 11:21

Hear hear - I'd rather watch paint dry.

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 22/05/2006 14:12

i post how i post and that is that mind you i try not to leave too many typos in

Shepherds Valley WX · Mon 22/05/2006 14:51

.....I have just had a quick look at your own Forums, where it appears you are struggling for both members and content.

I think you guys need to understand that although everyone here is interested in weather, forecasting and meteorology, there is a limit as to how much "cut and paste" type posts that we all can endure.

I'd suggest posting these types of items on your own Forum, where I am sure they would be more relevant and appreciated.

By making less alarmist weather forecast statements, improving your posting punctuation and grammar, and by focusing more on providing quality analysis and comment, it will help establish your credibility here in the NZ Weather Forum.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Mon 22/05/2006 14:55

This is a New Zealand weather forum, and posts which dont relate to New Zealand are off-topic and should be deleted. IMHO that includes all posts about Australian weather which have no bearing on New Zealand. There are several Australian forums designed exactly for that purpose. If you are in Australia and want to participate in this forum then do so by concentrating on New Zealand weather issues please.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 22/05/2006 15:01

Cant see too many problems with topics on Australian weather,lot of it particulary the Depression type weather that they get effects here,perhaps to make all happy is have a topic called Australian weather in blogs

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Mon 22/05/2006 15:10

I agree 100% with Tony and Andy there

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Mon 22/05/2006 15:57

I agree to but please exuse some of my posting language as I am used to text language which used both on cellphones and MSN these days.
Otherwise my punctuation is relativly good considering I am a writer.
I must add though the mentioning of weather that is dangerous is silly over powering a situation which could be used in a more calm manor.
Which is why you dont see weather forecasters saying dangerous weather on the way for much of NZ heavy rains, high winds, and electrical thunderstorms will kill lots of people.

Really it's plain its simple keep it low profile and if bad weather happens it's just mother nature at her best

.
Cheers
Jason.

C-Nimbus · Unread post by **C-Nimbus** » Mon 22/05/2006 16:18

hey, i ordered a cheese burger!

yeah but nah but yeah, but seriously i can see where Tony is coming from and the language is just, well crap to say the least.

but then again i can simply choose to not view the Matt Townsend topics,
which is what i do.

I think the weather blog for Ozzy idea is the best one to keep everyone happy, clappy, and generally anti-crappy!

theres my bit, now back on to the weather....i reckon those 'severe' t/s forcast for northern NZ will slip off to the east....?

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 22/05/2006 16:40

maby an aussie weather blog would be a good idea how ever if u thing that matt and myself are in this together you are wrong i am me and he is him to different people indeed just wanted to clear that bit up and no all of us are writters so noone is perfect and i dont see any harm i encouraging budding storm chasers or weather freaks in there interest instead of bagging them down even if there forcasts may be a bit way out there it is all part of the learning process with weather there is always something new to learn and we all get it wrong from time to time aswell well thats my 10 cents worth hopefully we can just move on and talk about weather as we usually do instead of picking at each other

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Mon 22/05/2006 16:58

I'm all for encouraging new storm chasers and weather enthusiasts, but a complete absence of punctuation means that your posts are very difficult to read - at least for us older members.

If you could just split your sentences up with full stops then that would make a huge difference

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 22/05/2006 17:00

well I will try to improve a bit, but no promises.

jrj · Unread post by **jrj** » Mon 22/05/2006 17:08

Hey, a comma! Well, it's a start:)

Flutterbye · Unread post by **Flutterbye** » Mon 22/05/2006 17:12

Steven Graham wrote:I'm all for encouraging new storm chasers and weather enthusiasts, but a complete absence of punctuation means that your posts are very difficult to read - at least for us older members.

If you could just split your sentences up with full stops then that would make a huge difference

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 22/05/2006 17:22

Geez, where the love round here???

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Mon 22/05/2006 18:10

exactly where is the love now lets get over it and move on.

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Mon 22/05/2006 19:46

There is some potential development of large area of rain and scattered thunderstorms across the region in eastern QLD and NSW. I didnt expected to see storms back again!!!! Far out temps are low in sydney and blue MTs area and the storms are living! Alot of summer type thunderstorms in most areas and it weird and i cant say anything if i know whats going on.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 22/05/2006 21:19

squid wrote:i post how i post and that is that mind you i try not to leave too many typos in

fair enough as long as it is ledgible and understandable

JohnGaul
NZTS

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Mon 22/05/2006 21:48

There storms organising in my west atm, looking much more intensify further
http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR282.loop.shtml

Hope it bring heavy rain and active cgs!

Matt Townsend · Unread post by **Matt Townsend** » Tue 23/05/2006 18:01

We had a thunderstorm around 9-10pm last night with blustery NW lines and some moderate rainfalls. Thunder was very quiet and cgs and ccs were very bright and scary!
More rain going to come tomorrow as the low pressure closer and spreading out, looking promising of my air pressure by my weather station, atm is 1009.2hpa. Yesterday morning was 1020.9hpa!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 26/05/2006 16:29

They are furthur east than predicted...here

squid · Unread post by **squid** » Fri 26/05/2006 21:06

no ecl this time it liked NZ better that aussie

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Fri 26/05/2006 22:10

squid wrote:no ecl this time it liked NZ better that aussie

.............and nothing much to write home about either

JohnGaul
NZTS

Dangerous twin low pressures and scattered severe weather EC

Interestingly....