Transition to La Nina?
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
- Posts: 1304
- Joined: Thu 16/06/2005 13:57
- Location: Caboolture,QLD
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: Transition to La Nina?
March and April are the months that Tc's are most likely to effect NZ due to the fact that is then the SST's are at their warmest in saying that in the past there have been some ripper tropical events that have effected NZ in January.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Transition to La Nina?
There was one late December 1997.some ripper tropical events that have effected NZ in January
- David
- Posts: 7604
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 427 times
- Been thanked: 837 times
- Contact:
Re: Transition to La Nina?
There was one that affected the NI 24Jan 2006 (it was more a tropical depression rather than cyclone). E gales here gusted to 100km/h and nearly 80mm of rain fell (I think much less fell further west).
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Transition to La Nina?
i think we have to go back to about 1997 (or there abouts) to the last time an ex-tropical cyclone ravaged the top of NZ.
- David
- Posts: 7604
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 427 times
- Been thanked: 837 times
- Contact:
Re: Transition to La Nina?
Gisele in 1968 was in April and Bola was in March 1988. Does anybody know if it was neutral/La nina during these years?squid wrote:March and April are the months that Tc's are most likely to effect NZ due to the fact that is then the SST's are at their warmest in saying that in the past there have been some ripper tropical events that have effected NZ in January.
Also NZ's most damaging cyclone was apparently what is called the great storm of 36 (1936) which occurred in February of that year. Although there is question whether this was the worst in recorded NZ weather history, I think it might be a bit far back to know the SOI conditions at the time.
Most dates on these are in late summer - autumn.
-
- Posts: 3745
- Joined: Sat 24/01/2004 16:56
- Location: Wellington
- Has thanked: 188 times
- Been thanked: 123 times
Re: Transition to La Nina?
Giselle and Bola both occurred during neutral ENSO conditions, though the latter followed shortly after a reasonably lengthy El Nino. Feb 1936 was in the middle of quite a prolonged neutral run.
Ereck Brenstrum of MetService has done a lot of research into the 1936 storm and my recollection is that he considers it was by far the most damaging one that century, and possibly for considerably longer than that.
Ereck Brenstrum of MetService has done a lot of research into the 1936 storm and my recollection is that he considers it was by far the most damaging one that century, and possibly for considerably longer than that.
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
- David
- Posts: 7604
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 427 times
- Been thanked: 837 times
- Contact:
Re: Transition to La Nina?
Sorry, that's all I could findManukau heads observer wrote:nice track graph that
what about for years after that?
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Transition to La Nina?
Thanks for the update.
Aucklands weather has been cooling off this decade and a La Nina will hopefully turn that trend around.
Aucklands weather has been cooling off this decade and a La Nina will hopefully turn that trend around.
-
- Posts: 9956
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 881 times
- Been thanked: 894 times
Re: Transition to La Nina?
What impact is the developing La Nina having on our weather.
We have had a lack of cold unstable flows onto NZ, sunnier around central NZ, more rain for some parts of northern NZ and higher dewpoints up here.
We have had a lack of cold unstable flows onto NZ, sunnier around central NZ, more rain for some parts of northern NZ and higher dewpoints up here.
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: Transition to La Nina?
Rather have more NE even though gives higher rain but more variety and less 8/8 SW weather,good the less useless SWers the better.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Transition to La Nina?
Yes, the odds must be very high of La Nina giving us a warmer than normal spring/summer. I have been looking at Aucklands mean temperature trends and we look to have come through a cooling cycle and should see a rise in temperatures now.
- David
- Posts: 7604
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 427 times
- Been thanked: 837 times
- Contact:
Re: Transition to La Nina?
September seems to have been a bit warmer this year - average low here is 8.8C and the average high 17.4C so far.
I would have thought Sep to have about 7.5C at night and 16.5C in the day or something similar. Should be o.k. for this to continue as it will hopefully mean a warmer October and December than we have been experiencing these last few years, which have been dominated by showery W and SW.
A warmer summer may be unpleasant because of Auckland's humidity, and I think a La nina bringing more north-easterlies and easterlies resulting in more rain will mean more hot sticky nights. However the days could be cooler with more rain falling, and the ground hopefully not as dry and parched.
I would have thought that higher dewpoints and humidity would generally promote a more unstable atmosphere. Does anyone in Auckland know from experience (or can suggest) what effect a La nina pattern in summer is likely to have upon frequency of thunderstorms?
I would have thought Sep to have about 7.5C at night and 16.5C in the day or something similar. Should be o.k. for this to continue as it will hopefully mean a warmer October and December than we have been experiencing these last few years, which have been dominated by showery W and SW.
A warmer summer may be unpleasant because of Auckland's humidity, and I think a La nina bringing more north-easterlies and easterlies resulting in more rain will mean more hot sticky nights. However the days could be cooler with more rain falling, and the ground hopefully not as dry and parched.
I would have thought that higher dewpoints and humidity would generally promote a more unstable atmosphere. Does anyone in Auckland know from experience (or can suggest) what effect a La nina pattern in summer is likely to have upon frequency of thunderstorms?
- Michael
- Posts: 7210
- Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
- Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 1 time
- Contact:
Re: Transition to La Nina?
The mins probably be near average overall as we had a lot of cold nights-mornings here but then we had about 6 20° days also which were lucky to get 1 or 2 in Sept some years
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Transition to La Nina?
We could guess and say a higher frequency on the basis that a La Nina may break down the subtropical ridge that normaly dominats our summers.what effect a La nina pattern in summer is likely to have upon frequency of thunderstorms?
Yes, and August was slightly warmer too.September seems to have been a bit warmer this year