Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

Manukau heads obs · Sun 13/04/2008 16:26

Hi
I have been following the rain model and following the heavy rain prediction areas, and that is the conclusion I made, from a armchair position.
Not sure why you would think I would take it to heart?...strange...
It was just an observation I made, and I was interested in other peoples comments....

I do know from watching the detailed rain model for the last few weeks that it should only be used as a very general guide....and esentialy I would think it should only be to confirm a forecasters experience of where heavy rain general eventualy from a given situtation, built up over time.
Lets see how the current heavy rain forecast areas eventuate
(forecasting heavy rain correctly must be one of the hardest things a forecaster has to do)

rawdon · Unread post by **rawdon** » Sun 13/04/2008 16:36

you make valid comments Brian ... forecasting of North Island north to northeasterly rain events are not easy at the best of times as I am sure you appreciate .. each event has its differences ... lets hope this time the Waikato gets a good dump.. and what is more the Wellington region sure needs more rainfall..
best rgds
Steve

ps ..you and I used to chat when you passed your synops to Kelburn some time ago.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 13/04/2008 17:17

Keep up the good work guys, it cant be easy :sometimes, and I take my hat off to ya

the take home message for the public in these NE rain systems is that often the weather situation can change alot, and so they need to keep up with the latest forecast/warnings.

This warm frontal rain is not amounting to much yet...
I see the cold front in behind is activitating more now....hopefully that peaks near or over the areas that badly need the rain (and good thing its relatively warm rain too)

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 13/04/2008 19:20

Looks like a good clump to the west of Northland on the latest satellite photograph

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Sun 13/04/2008 19:35

yes, what is good is that the cold front is intensifying as it heads towards us....hopefully it peaks in intensity right over the dry areas....i.e hopefully it does not peak and then weaken again before it gets here....as it is slow moving...so it would not be until tomorrow aftenoon or later until that area gets here...thats my thoughts!

Willoughby · Unread post by **Willoughby** » Sun 13/04/2008 19:40

Topic split due to rain forecast a certainty.

Today's 00z GFS and LAPS runs are pretty interesting with the high over southern Australia set to become blocking and force the decaying low back over central NZ on Wednesday. Interesting times ahead with this low track. Bring on the heavy rain at last!

Manukau heads obs · Sun 13/04/2008 19:40

I see that Albany, north of Auckland, caught that active shower line that came through....10mm ....lucky them!
http://www.gilescivil.co.nz/weather/index.html

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 13/04/2008 19:51

GFS is suggesting snow to below 500m in the lower South Island end of week! (850mb temps -5C)

I see ECMWF is suggestive of a wintry outbreak early next week ( last two runs, still early days on this)

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 13/04/2008 20:29

Yes, it does look like cold weather coming up with a blocking high over Tasmania with ridging fecks into the higher latitudes

JohnGaul
NZTS

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 13/04/2008 20:50

On topic of polar outbreak GFS still has it timed for Friday/Saturday. Forecast heights suggest sleet to sea level in the far south and thunderstorms/hail in Canterbury.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 13/04/2008 20:57

heavy rain warning out for Northland, eastern hills, now

hopefully we will get some of it too!
(looking promising (40mm would be nice!))

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 13/04/2008 21:03

Doesn't look like widespread rain on the radar...looks quite patchy. Quite windy this evening, I wonder if it will really reach gale force tomorrow. Certainly looking like we should see some good rain out of this system - hopefully 50mm+. Interesting about the rain warning...I thought that Tuesday was going to be the very wet day. The atmosphere doesn't appear to be too stable this week, hopefully we will finally hear some nice thunder.

Its been nearly 4 months!

NZstorm wrote:On topic of polar outbreak GFS still has it timed for Friday/Saturday. Forecast heights suggest sleet to sea level in the far south and thunderstorms/hail in Canterbury.

Yeah, those southerlies look to spread up the whole country, maybe will bring some highs of around 15 here up north...our first cold days this year potentially. Then an anticyclone follows in the currently forecast scenario...perfect for frosts in the south, and cold nights up here as well.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 13/04/2008 21:04

GFS 00Z forecasts 44mm for Auckland Monday into early Tuesday.

Vertigo · Unread post by **Vertigo** » Sun 13/04/2008 21:31

metservice reckons we have a high risk of thunderstorms from monday. wee.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 13/04/2008 21:34

its the cold front in behind this warm front that hopefully will deliver the goods David

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 13/04/2008 21:55

It just rained cats and dogs with a few sheep thrown in there. Nice to see and hear heavy rain.

Also nice convection in the tazzy at the moment. Hope that sort of action blows up overland in the next few days

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 13/04/2008 22:24

Hmm, I wonder what my flight from Auckland to Christchurch & back on Wednesday will be like?

Or the drive to Auckland & back to Tauranga for that matter.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 13/04/2008 23:12

tgsnoopy wrote:Hmm, I wonder what my flight from Auckland to Christchurch & back on Wednesday will be like?

Or the drive to Auckland & back to Tauranga for that matter.

Should be OK.

Latest sattelitte pics show a few more clumps in the Tasman Sea.

JohnGaul
NZTS

Manukau heads obs · Mon 14/04/2008 06:20

I see the 3 day rain model now shows alot of the heavy rain going to the western side (Taranaki north (good for the Waikato) of the NI...which you can see is going to happen now..
i.e things change....

raining nicely here at the moment

Manukau heads obs · Mon 14/04/2008 09:05

Looks like the Waikato is getting good rain at the moment

Manukau heads obs · Mon 14/04/2008 15:27

looks to be a blow up occuring to the NW of here on the cold front...should get intersting from this area south 2 nite

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 14/04/2008 15:33

I see we are supposed to hear some thunder tomorrow afternoon, and maybe tonight...
Been some good bursts of rain today, 26mm since midnight, and 29mm storm total. Should see some more good falls tomorrow. That wind never made it to gale in the end, just strong.

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 14/04/2008 17:25

hey peeps, don't come on here all that much now, because the weather has been that BORING! theres not much point but good to read about the signs of winter coming in, and particularly this fri/sat that a cold snap is forcasted with thunderstorms!!

don't rule em out yet chch people

Soon we'll be into the snow season and will be interesting to see what happens this winter down here

cheers

rawdon · Unread post by **rawdon** » Mon 14/04/2008 17:31

the rain is returning... as is the season ... Nature returns the situaton to normal .. as she always does.. have faith in natue... she never fails..
Steve ...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 14/04/2008 18:06

Just light to mod rain here today, looks like some heavier stuff developing out to the West/NW.
I see a few Thunderstorms have developed along the Front west of the NI.

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Wet and unstable, NI, Apr 13-18

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